Tropical Storm JULIO

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 11E has formed to the southeast of Baja Calafornia near the coast of Mexico. Shear is high, but very deep convection has managed to persist over the now closed centre. Shear is expected to ease and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm over the next couple days. However, on the northward track, the system doesn't have long over warm waters. Despite this, Baja Calafornia should watch this cyclone as it may make landfall here early next week. One to watch, particularly if it strengthens more than forecast (40kts).

[Cookie]

[MAF]

will track this one as it develops. thank you SS for the info :o

[opplevelse]

will track this one as it develops....

Good for you!

[Cookie]

its been named

Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JULIO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, 11E has strengthened overnight, and has become Tropical Storm Julio, with an intensity of 35kts. Julio is still in a sheared environment, with the deepest convection sheared west of the centre. There is potential for strengthening over the next day or so as shear could ease, however, not all models agree on this decrease in shear. Julio is moving north-northwestwards along the western periphery of a steering ridge over Mexico, and models have come into slightly better agreement for a more northward turn as Julio approaches a weakness in the ridge. This could bring a direct landfall in Baja Calafornia, or allow Julio to move further to the east over the warm, narrow channel, the Sea of Cortez. The SOC is quite hot at this time of year but is not known for strengthening cyclones that much as it's a very narrow channel of water and if Julio was to move here, land interaction would hinder significant intensification. It's also still possible that Julio will move to the west of Baja Calafornia; the waters are significantly colder this side and if this occurs Julio will rapidly weaken. Overall, the intensity forecast is uncertain as it is largely dependant on the shear easing and just where Julio goes in relation to Baja California. One to watch.

[Somerset Squall]

Julio is now bringing heavy showers to the southern tip of Baja California and a tropical storm warning as been issued. Julio is currently right on course for direct landfall but a wobble either way could take Julio to the places I mentioned above.

[Cookie]

Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JULIO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for TS is 95% currently

La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alerts Cookie.

Julio peaked at 45kts yesterday but has since weakened back to 35kts due to land interaction with Baja California. Julio made landfall late yesterday and has continued to move west-northwestward up the peninsula. Deep convection obscures the centre which has made it difficult for the NHC to locate. This convection is obviously bringing torrential rains to southern Baja California which will continue for the next few days. Steering currents are soon forecast to collapse, which means Julio could stall over land which will casuse further problems. Dissipation is expected to occur by 96hrs due to continues land interaction and increasingly strong westerly shear.

[Cookie]

well over land now

Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JULIO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for TS is 80% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)

probability for TS is 80% currently

La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Julio continues slowly northwards along Baja California, bringing torrential rains. NHC say amounts of 10 inches are possible, which could cause severe flooding and mudslides. Although Julio's centre is not that well defined any more, explosive convection is still firing up near the centre, perhaps because of friction with land. Julio is expected to move over the warm waters of the Sea of Cortez, but shear is also expected to be strong. The two will cancel each other out to sustain Julio as a 35kt tropical storm for the next 12 hours. After which, shear will become even stronger and Julio will probably weaken to a remnant low before a second landfall on the coast of Mexico.

[Somerset Squall]

Julio is now a remnant low. Moisture is likely to enhance rainfall across southwestern parts of the US over the coming few days.

[Cookie]

thanks again for all the updates mate