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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    94L has now been updated to TD 7.

    This has been done without recon which is unusual given that recon is set to fly off now to investigate and presumably means that they are certain.

    With a Dvorak of 2.5 or 35Kts this is very likely to be a Tropical storm when recon does get some obs.

    Pressure is below 1007mb given the bouy readings earlier. Intensification has been quite intense today with good banding, very good rotation and some considerable outflow, also some evidence of inflow.

    An eye like feature is visible on visual but I think this is just the centre of the circulation, however this with the banding and deep convection would hint at some serious deeping over the next few days.

    The tracks are all over the Caribbean with virtually every island possibly being hit, because of all the land interaction the models are struggling with intensification estimates however a Hurricane is more than an real possibility and quite likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION

    OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE

    CARIBBEAN. WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED...

    PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.

    ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS

    INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE WE ARE

    INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. AN SSM/IS

    IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91

    GHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.

    SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...

    THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY

    HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR

    AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE. OUR INITIAL INTENSITY

    ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT

    FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE

    HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE

    STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER

    ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

    APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

    CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. CURIOUSLY...THE GFS HAS FAILED

    TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.

    INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT

    THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE. THERE IS AN

    UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE

    THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE

    SYSTEM. ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS

    IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS

    DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A SECOND SCENARIO IS

    FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A

    MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA...AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE

    BAM TRACKS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL. OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK

    FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER

    SCENARIO. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS

    TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

    v

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    at200807.gif

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807.html

    Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression AL07 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Haiti

    probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Dominican Republic

    probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

    Cuba

    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

    the Bahamas

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

    probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

    Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Recon are currently in their 1006mb recorded and winds of .

    Visual shows what must be a forming eye feature, this is supported by the large pressure gradient.

    This could be a very rapid hurricane.

    The below is enought to support an upgrade to Tropical storm gustav.

    171000 1649N 07115W 9198 00819 0106 +197 +180 053037 039 026 004 00

    171030 1648N 07114W 9234 00786 0105 +196 +180 052040 040 027 004 00

    171100 1647N 07113W 9250 00769 0103 +202 +180 051041 041 027 004 00

    171130 1645N 07112W 9247 00772 0104 +199 +180 051040 041 026 004 00

    171200 1644N 07112W 9250 00769 0103 +198 +180 055037 039 027 003 00

    171230 1643N 07111W 9247 00769 0101 +196 +180 054036 036 026 003 00

    171300 1642N 07110W 9249 00767 0100 +198 +180 055036 037 025 004 00

    171330 1640N 07109W 9249 00766 0100 +196 +180 053035 035 026 004 00

    171400 1639N 07108W 9249 00766 0099 +200 +189 052035 036 027 004 00

    171430 1638N 07107W 9250 00764 0098 +198 +190 052035 036 027 005 00

    171500 1636N 07106W 9248 00765 0097 +196 +190 052035 036 028 006 00

    171530 1635N 07105W 9250 00761 0098 +191 +190 048035 036 030 012 00

    171600 1634N 07104W 9250 00760 0100 +179 +179 043036 038 034 018 00

    171630 1632N 07103W 9262 00746 0100 +173 +173 038036 037 045 022 00

    171700 1631N 07102W 9249 00760 0098 +180 +180 044038 039 034 016 00

    171730 1629N 07101W 9254 00755 0093 +194 +190 053037 040 031 008 00

    171800 1628N 07100W 9259 00749 0093 +196 +190 053036 036 027 005 00

    171830 1627N 07059W 9247 00761 0092 +198 +190 049034 035 030 005 00

    $$

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    It is looking impressive pressure found to be lower still with 48Kt flight winds which would mean 40Kt surface winds.

    I don't think they will wait until the next advisory to upgrade, this could be a serious problem for DR, with an eye feature this will quickly advance.

    172830 1559N 07040W 9245 00725 0053 +176 +176 036044 048 036 009 00

    WOW!

    Pressure is really bombing down to 995mb winds of 66Kt (not isolated) at flight level equaling 55-60Kt at surface.

    This is just shy of Hurricane strength.

    It's set to hit Haiti in just over 24 hrs so this needs to be flagged quickly.

    Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    000

    URNT15 KNHC 251738

    AF302 01EEA INVEST HDOB 22 20080825

    172900 1558N 07039W 9251 00711 0043 +184 +184 036045 047 037 009 00

    172930 1556N 07038W 9245 00708 0039 +168 +168 031047 051 045 015 00

    173000 1555N 07037W 9252 00692 0029 +168 +168 027053 056 044 011 00

    173030 1554N 07036W 9241 00698 0014 +183 +183 026054 058 043 009 03

    173100 1553N 07035W 9251 00678 0001 +196 +196 026046 051 045 005 00

    173130 1552N 07034W 9246 00673 9989 +197 +197 031037 040 043 006 00

    173200 1551N 07032W 9252 00657 9975 +207 +200 025023 027 033 005 00

    173230 1550N 07031W 9247 00649 9960 +218 +200 011014 017 024 004 00

    173300 1549N 07029W 9248 00647 9958 +216 +200 284003 009 007 005 03

    173330 1549N 07028W 9244 00651 9956 +224 +200 211018 019 009 005 00

    173400 1549N 07026W 9247 00651 9961 +218 +200 203021 021 023 005 03

    173430 1548N 07025W 9246 00655 9962 +224 +200 199022 022 024 004 00

    173500 1547N 07024W 9248 00656 9964 +229 +200 202029 038 035 005 00

    173530 1545N 07023W 9247 00664 9972 +224 +200 203051 056 045 005 00

    173600 1544N 07022W 9255 00660 9979 +226 +200 200060 062 052 005 00

    173630 1544N 07021W 9254 00671 9992 +214 +200 202065 066 052 005 00

    173700 1543N 07020W 9246 00692 0012 +194 +194 208060 063 050 005 00

    173730 1542N 07019W 9250 00698 0024 +190 +190 211054 055 046 006 00

    173800 1541N 07018W 9246 00707 0028 +204 +200 216051 052 045 005 00

    173830 1539N 07017W 9250 00712 0039 +200 +200 215048 050 042 005 00

    $$

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

    If this baby can avoid all the damn islands - unlike Fay, then its our first Cat'5 of the season. There could be some seriously entertaining days ahead. There is now no excuse for those in the area not to be taking full prep/evac by mid-week.

    I for one welcome our new storm overlord...Gustov !

    *with Recon data, looks like its now a Cat'1. With toasty bath-tub water of 30c, do not be surprised if this storm continues its current explosive development overnight, to hit major cane' status by early Tuesday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    This is easily a rapidly developing tropical storm right now (probably 50kts roughly), conditions look very condusive and its got a small inner core, easily could be a hurricane before coming very close to Haiti...

    The other thing to note is there is a ridge present right now near Florida, if it decides to move eastwards at all this will bend back to the WNW, but firstly we need to get a good several fixes on the center.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Vortex data finally a closed eye and 67Kt flight winds I would plump for 60Kt given it's structure and almost certainly a cane this evening.

    000

    URNT12 KNHC 251755

    VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

    A. 25/17:33:00Z

    B. 15 deg 49 min N

    070 deg 30 min W

    C. 925 mb NA m

    D. 45 kt

    E. 322 deg 54 nm

    F. 028 deg 058 kt

    G. 304 deg 008 nm

    H. EXTRAP 996 mb

    I. 17 C/ 761 m

    J. 22 C/ 760 m

    K. 20 C/ NA

    L. CLOSED WALL

    M. C30

    N. 12345/9

    O. 0.02 / 2 nm

    P. AF302 01EEA INVEST OB 08

    MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 17:36:30 Z

    SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Reduction at 925mbs isn't going to be quite the same as higher up, given everything we will probably only see an intial strength of 50kts, maybe 55kts...either way this is going to be a hurricane in less than 12hrs if this continues, the seasons first rapidly strengthening system!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Special advisory.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM

    GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL

    ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE

    INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Totally to be expected Iceberg.

    This region of the basin along with most of the Caribbean is like a loaded gun in favorable set-up. Even if this does decide to hit Haiti or even DR it will have another 24hrs over water, by that time its not impossible that we will have a cat-2/3...I hope not however but its possible given the inner core already looks set-up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Completely agree Kold the closed eye is a critical factor which indicates that strengthening up to a decent cane is very very likely. Recon have still got another couple of passes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Dominican Republic

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 18 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 18 hours

    Haiti

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 30 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 18 hours

    Cuba

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 42 hours

    probability for TS is 45% in about 42 hours

    the Bahamas

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 42 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 42 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 30 hours

    probability for TS is 55% in about 18 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 30 hours

    Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 42 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
    what dose closed eyewall mean?

    Well, you get a closed eyewall generally in hurricanes, not developing TD's or TS's. This is forming fast. Indeed, earlier recon measured flight levels winds at 74.8mph, that's hurricane strength., albeit above..

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Eye is still fairly ragged but given the heat content present plus the decent conditions its hard not to expect quick strengthening and for Gustav to really ramp up into a decent hurricane come its close call to Haiti.

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

    NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

    319 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

    TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...

    THINK THE NORTHEASTERN SYSTEM THE MODELS SPIN UP IN THE 60S

    LONGITUDE WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV WILL HAVE LITTLE

    IMPACT ON GUSTAVS FUTURE TRACK OTHER THAN LEADING TO SLOW

    MOTION...WHICH WAS SEEN WITHIN THE MEAN LAYER WINDS OF THE 00Z

    ECMWF WHICH ADVERTISED WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING OF 5 KNOTS NEAR THE

    NHC TRACK. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...AS

    THE GUIDANCE NOW LIES WEST OF THE NHC TRACK. DUE TO A LACK OF

    SEPARATION BETWEEN GUSTAV AND THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC

    SUBTROPICS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM

    EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV AS A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER COORDINATION

    WITH NHC/TPC. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS

    INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LURED INTO THE GULF OF

    MEXICO BY A MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST.

    From Wunderground:

    at200807.gif

    Mostly forecast over land, perhaps its peaked too soon??

    2008AL07_1KMSRVIS_200808252015.GIF

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