Hurricane Gustav

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

The eye is clear to see:

[kold weather]

Yep, northern side is a little weak in terms of convection thanks to land disruption from hispaniola to its north but the inner core is tightening nicely and IR shows the eye is popping back with deep convection in the western and northern eyewall. Looks like its going through a strengthening phase again.

[Iceberg]

A bit of a catch up from last night.

The tropical models took her to a strong CAT 4, largely avoiding land and ending up in the GOM. From here land must be hit somewhere and he might be a monster by then.

The lastest tracks are below as well as the early morning advisory.

UKmet has not been good with Gustav and refused to even initialise with him 24 hrs ago. Still even the METO now takes him to a strong hurricane(albeit in the wrong direction to everybody else ! ).

Recon is currently in and the eye might have change position. They are expecting him to be a clear hurricane now though.

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.08.2008 16.3N 71.7W WEAK

12UTC 26.08.2008 17.4N 72.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 27.08.2008 18.1N 72.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2008 18.3N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2008 18.6N 76.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2008 18.5N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2008 18.3N 79.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.6N 81.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 19.3N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 19.7N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.6N 89.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 21.7N 92.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 22.0N 94.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.08.2008 16.3N 71.7W WEAK

12UTC 26.08.2008 17.4N 72.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 27.08.2008 18.1N 72.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.08.2008 18.3N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2008 18.6N 76.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2008 18.5N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2008 18.3N 79.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.6N 81.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 19.3N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 19.7N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.6N 89.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 21.7N 92.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 22.0N 94.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW

HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL. DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE

STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

INCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY

FIND A HURRICANE. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL

EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE

CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE

CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY OF

GUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS

WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT...WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC...IS AT LEAST

DIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES

MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE

INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT. BOTH THE

GFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE

GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7

INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25

INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING

FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES

LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 985 and flight winds to 85Kt he is a Hurricane, this is on the first pass so I would expect winds to be higher and pressure to be lower. Outside chance that he could be a CAT 2 before the end of Recon.

055500 1652N 07137W 6967 03040 9855 +151 +066 130006 008 023 001 00

055530 1653N 07135W 6969 03038 9855 +151 +066 145012 017 025 002 03

055830 1646N 07130W 6969 03063 9916 +120 +066 201073 075 061 002 00

055900 1645N 07130W 6963 03073 9944 +103 +066 203079 082 062 004 00

055930 1644N 07129W 6977 03070 9969 +095 +066 203084 085 059 005 00

060000 1643N 07128W 6967 03092 9986 +091 +066 201079 082 057 004 00

[Iceberg]

Good Morning Hurricane Gustav

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130

KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

We have first(probably of many) CAT 5 prediction for Gustav.

A whopping 158Kt winds....

[Mondy]

Interesting eye structure:

Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL

Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical

Good Morning Hurricane Gustav

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130

KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

We have first(probably of many) CAT 5 prediction for Gustav.

A whopping 158Kt winds....

...and if the GFDL is correct that's the speeds before it enters the GoM properly :o

[Mondy]

Down to 983.9mb at 0836am

[Somerset Squall]

Gustav reminds me of Felix in a way- a very small, rapidly deepening system. It could fall apart if it deepens too quickly but could just as easily do that then spin up very quickly again. Small hurricanes are sensitive to environmental changes- though, apart from land interaction, conditions look good. If Gustav can pass to the south of Cuba then it looks like we will have a strong hurricane moving into the GOM later this week. Plenty to watch.

[Iceberg]

Latest Vortex

000

URNT12 KNHC 260826

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 26/07:36:30Z

B. 17 deg 06 min N

071 deg 47 min W

C. 700 mb 2986 m

D. 76 kt

E. 062 deg 011 nm

F. 141 deg 091 kt

G. 062 deg 014 nm

H. EXTRAP 984 mb

I. 8 C/ 3053 m

J. 15 C/ 3039 m

K. 7 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C20

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF307 0207A GUSTAV OB 16

MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 0733 Z

RADAR DEPICTED RAGGED EDGE EYEWALL, VARIABLE 20-25 NM,

ADDITIONAL INNER BAND WSW-N

MAX FL TEMP 17 C 234 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

90Kt flight winds and a closed eye.(getting a little ragged though, continuing falling pressure as well).

The NHC now make this a Major Hurricane in a few days time and a CAT 2 later today.

GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AN

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL

WINDS OF 90 KT...PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 76 KT...AND A RECENT

ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 984 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING

PATTERN WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND

GUSTAV IS LIKELY NOT DONE INTENSIFYING BEFORE IT PASSES OVER

SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN 24 HR

DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE

IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EXTREMELY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT

SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS

FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN

EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE

MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS

MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND

FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT

THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY

OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN

SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE

GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.2N 71.9W 75 KT

12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W 85 KT

24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W 75 KT

36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W 80 KT

48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W 85 KT

72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W 90 KT

96HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W 100 KT

120HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KT

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2008 9:00 GMT

Hurricane GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% currently

probability for TS is 85% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 117 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

Latest Vortex. Open to the NW, but with good banding pressure leakage will be minimal. It might even encourage strengthening. Half decent temperature differentials around the eye as well.

000

URNT12 KNHC 260955

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 26/09:26:10Z

B. 17 deg 15 min N

071 deg 54 min W

C. 700 mb 2974 m

D. 78 kt

E. 158 deg 6 nm

F. 259 deg 066 kt

G. 161 deg 010 nm

H. 983 mb

I. 9 C/ 3043 m

J. 15 C/ 3050 m

K. 7 C/ NA

L. OPEN NW

M. C16

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF307 0207A GUSTAV OB 21

MAX FL WIND 91 KT SW QUAD 0733 Z

RADAR DEPICTED RAGGED EYEWALL APPEARANCE

MULTIPLE BANDS NW QUAD BEYOND BREAK IN INNER EYEWALL

[Iceberg]

Pressure down slight further still to 982mb.

The pressure gradient between 1000 to 982 is very tight though, to increase the health of the Hurricane a slight leak will allow the pressure field to expand. This would be good news from an interest POV, but bad news from a landfall POV as it would make ERC's(Eye replacement cycles) easier for Gustav to perform.

[Mondy]

981mb now.

Anyone taking bets it'll be sub 900mb if it keeps intact, and by the time it hits the open waters of the GoM, where it will have a field day. :lol:

[Iceberg]

I wouldn't bet against it.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY

TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70

MILES...110 KM.

The update also says that winds are 90mph which is only 6 mph short of a CAT 2. A big TS wind field but a small hurricane one.

Gustav has also got the classic S shape on IR Sat. Indicating the possibility of two inflow channels with sporadic outflow and some good CDO creation. With the banding he is in quite good shape

[Mondy]

[Iceberg]

GFDL takes this back to a CAT 5 again and places a direct hit on New Orleans from the SW..........

HWRF roughly confirms this as well.

The globals push him further west to Texas.

[Mondy]

Two big build ups of convection:

[Iceberg]

The pin hole dimpled centre is clearly visable now. Nicely centred with good convection around it.

[Iceberg]

The latest update keeps him a CAT 1 just shy of a CAT 2, but supports the formation of a major cane downstream.

The path does seem to be making a beeline for New Orleans still and this would be a big problem. But the path is very uncertain.

He seems to tightening up and if the eye is clearing could be going though.just starting another intensification phase. Recon is not in the system at present.

[Coast]

Quite a lot of agreement on the models for the direction and some pretty high winds forecast by the NHC (120mph) into the GOM towards the end of the week!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices pushed higher Tuesday as Hurricane Gustav threatened the oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm, currently a category 1 hurricane with winds up to 85 miles per hour, was on track to hit Cuba and parts of Haiti over the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center, and could enter the Gulf on Sunday. Gustav is still too far off to tell what kind of impact it will have on the United States or Mexico, according to Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, but wind speeds could reach up to 130 miles per hour by Sunday.

http://money.cnn.com/

[londonsnow]

what measures has n orleans taken since katrina with regard to sea defense? gustavs track is very uncertain but if it makes the gulf reasonably intact it's a very worrying system. we shall see

[Coast]

what measures has n orleans taken since Katrina with regard to sea defense?

This article may go some way to answering the question.

[Calrissian]

what measures has n orleans taken since katrina with regard to sea defense? gustavs track is very uncertain but if it makes the gulf reasonably intact it's a very worrying system. we shall see

The only sensible measure would be to suggest to the locals that living below sea level, whilst just a few miles from the ocean is not the most dry of areas. Sorry, but zero sympathy for those that choose to remain there.

--

As for whether this little storm can hit the sub 900mb level, that'd be unlikely, I would bet against it. Although Cat'5 status seems a strong likelihood.

As is it, I'd favour Houston rather than New Orleans for the money. A long week ahead of us, and those along the gulf coast who don't have plywood covers already bought, are already too slow.

[londonsnow]

thanks for that coast. some progress then but still a cat 3,4 or 5 cane would no doubt be very very unwelcome scenario in orleans