Hurricane Gustav

[The PIT]

The only sensible measure would be to suggest to the locals that living below sea level, whilst just a few miles from the ocean is not the most dry of areas. Sorry, but zero sympathy for those that choose to remain there.

--

That's probably because they haven't got anywhere else to go. Not everyone has loads of cash and can simply up and move.

At least they getting the defences done but it'll sods law that another cane comes along and smashes all the ongoing work up.

[kold weather]

Looks like the eye is emerging again, just in time for landfall on Haiti, not a good sign as the eye emerging suggests Gustav is about to go through a strengthening phase and such systems tend to handle better overland compared to others that are weakening. gustav has a tight circulation which should mean quick weakening however on this landfall it will probably only spend about 6-9hrs overland and so whilst weakening down to probably 65kts is quite possible, the inner core should stay intact.

At the moment looks like the system is right on the eastern edge of the upper high and this means very soon, within the next few hours quite possibly, the system should show real signs of bending back westward. However by that time for Haiti the damage will be done, top end cat-1 will cause pretty severe damage to such a poor country in terms of winds alone but its the mudslide risk I really worry the most about thanks to the slow foward motion.

Also if there is one place that will support a cat-4/5, its the NW Caribbean, don't be at all surprised if this goes sub 930mbs on Friday...

[SMU]

Looks like the eye is emerging again, just in time for landfall on Haiti, not a good sign as the eye emerging suggests Gustav is about to go through a strengthening phase and such systems tend to handle better overland compared to others that are weakening. gustav has a tight circulation which should mean quick weakening however on this landfall it will probably only spend about 6-9hrs overland and so whilst weakening down to probably 65kts is quite possible, the inner core should stay intact.

At the moment looks like the system is right on the eastern edge of the upper high and this means very soon, within the next few hours quite possibly, the system should show real signs of bending back westward. However by that time for Haiti the damage will be done, top end cat-1 will cause pretty severe damage to such a poor country in terms of winds alone but its the mudslide risk I really worry the most about thanks to the slow foward motion.

Also if there is one place that will support a cat-4/5, its the NW Caribbean, don't be at all surprised if this goes sub 930mbs on Friday...

Worst case scenario down the line is that it bends westwards then recurves through the Yucatan Channel where the warmest waters are-

the optimum track for Deep intensification could have then been realised....Lets not contemplate that just yet & hope not....

S

Edited August 26, 2008 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Indeed Steve the NW Caribbean is totally primed for category-5 development. Of course thats not to say it will happen but so many big names have gone through the NW Caribbean and become cat-5's...Dean, Wilma, Gilbert, Emily, Janet, Allen, Ivan, all complete monsters and all cat-5's in that part of the world.

For now I just can't call a cat-5 as they are uncommon even in active years however its a possiblity that Gustav could go sub 930mbs in terms of pressure.

[SMU]

Indeed Steve the NW Caribbean is totally primed for category-5 development. Of course thats not to say it will happen but so many big names have gone through the NW Caribbean and become cat-5's...Dean, Wilma, Gilbert, Emily, Janet, Allen, Ivan, all complete monsters and all cat-5's in that part of the world.

For now I just can't call a cat-5 as they are uncommon even in active years however its a possiblity that Gustav could go sub 930mbs in terms of pressure.

Yes mate- Ive looked at the Water profiles & the upper air- all is 100% Favourable-

The ONLY problem I foresee is CUBA- the system must recurve to a due WEST heading before making any type of landfall other running cuba will take her apart...

Looks like the optimum track through Haiti - IE between the mountainous areas of Central & western portions....

S

Edited August 26, 2008 by Steve Murr

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

looking at my eye of the storm program to-night at the moment it saying its heading for Houston/Galveston/ and new Orleans should look out if this one turns in to a monster

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This experimental product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT

Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION

CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION

FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-

NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT

MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...JUST

SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

3. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH

OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT

ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

Edited August 26, 2008 by tinybill

[Iceberg]

Some expected weakening now going on due to the small pressure core, this will likely cause him to expand in the longer term.

000

URNT12 KNHC 261814

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 26/17:56:10Z

B. 18 deg 09 min N

072 deg 47 min W

C. 700 mb 3003 m

D. NA kt

E. 225 deg 2 nm

F. 330 deg 042 kt

G. 235 deg 006 nm

H. EXTRAP 992 mb

I. 8 C/ 3046 m

J. 11 C/ 3058 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C10

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0307A GUSTAV OB 06

MAX FL WIND 42 KT SW QUAD 17:54:30 Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 17:59:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Iceberg]

Still headed for New Orleans area according to GFDL. Also as a CAT 5 on it's approach.

ECM has an interesting little chart with Gustav viewable in the GOM as well as 2 other Hurricanes which will keep the NHC team busy.

[kold weather]

Yep Gustav weakening quite readily now as expected with it having such a tight inner core, probably will emerge from Haiti as a tropical storm. Expect it to take about 12hrs for the inner core to tighten back up but when it does, under some of the highest heat content in the entire basin, it could ramp up very rapidly.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 26 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently

probability for TS is 95% currently

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Guest weatherchick]

That's probably because they haven't got anywhere else to go. Not everyone has loads of cash and can simply up and move.

At least they getting the defences done but it'll sods law that another cane comes along and smashes all the ongoing work up.

Exactly. A hit like this would finish us off.

[londonsnow]

Exactly. A hit like this would finish us off.

Hi weatherchick. what is your local media saying about gustav? i hope it misses n orleans. you guys can really do without another katrina.

[mezzacyclone]

,,,at least the 4 -5 day models (GFDL :o ) are more open to variation in direction and intensity,

but I guess most Louisiana folk are hoping for as much interaction with Cuban land as possible just in case the worst case scenario concerning`Gus`becomes evident?

Panic fuel buying by the weekend?

[Guest weatherchick]

Hi weatherchick. what is your local media saying about gustav? i hope it misses n orleans. you guys can really do without another katrina.

Hi London. The media is all over this and Emergency management have already swung into action. Believe it or not there are still a lot of boats and trees still in the Lake that need to be removed. FEMA coughed over $20 million today to get that done. The Governor held a press conference this afternoon giving all the numbers needed for those who are not able to get out by themselves (whether it be lack of money, transportation or no where TO go). They will start contra-flow on Saturday.

I already have my plans in place and the minute the evacuation orders come down (if indeed they do), I'm outta here.

,,,at least the 4 -5 day models (GFDL :o ) are more open to variation in direction and intensity,

but I guess most Louisiana folk are hoping for as much interaction with Cuban land as possible just in case the worst case scenario concerning`Gus`becomes evident?

Panic fuel buying by the weekend?

We really don't want it to go anywhere but the reality is it's going to slam into land somewhere! We don't want to see any of our neighbors suffer. If this thing goes in just West of us we are toast.

Edited August 26, 2008 by weatherchick

[londonsnow]

Hi London. The media is all over this and Emergency management have already swung into action. Believe it or not there are still a lot of boats and trees still in the Lake that need to be removed. FEMA coughed over $20 million today to get that done. The Governor held a press conference this afternoon giving all the numbers needed for those who are not able to get out by themselves (whether it be lack of money, transportation or no where TO go). They will start contra-flow on Saturday.

I already have my plans in place and the minute the evacuation orders come down (if indeed they do), I'm outta here.

We really don't want it to go anywhere but the reality is it's going to slam into land somewhere! We don't want to see any of our neighbors suffer. If this thing goes in just West of us we are toast.

thanks for that weatherchick. i have a great fondness for new orleans having stayed there a few years back on bourbon street, so i was upset by the the aftermath of katrina. well i'm glad your authorities are taking notice of gustav, and keep safe if it strikes. infact, as you say, get outta there

[Mondy]

TS Gustav again as it falls apart somewhat over Haiti. Should re-organise once clear of there. Then Cuba is a bigger obstacle. Watching game now.

[Iceberg]

Gustav is now clear of Haiti according to Cuban radar. presure has increased massively to 998mb as the eye has opened up without the supporting bands. As everyone has said though strengthening is very very likely given the still good general layout of the storm and the conditions. Recon are in and are still noticing 50+KT flight winds so still very much a tropical storm if nolonger a hurricane, ALL models make him a hurricane again though very quickly with an expanded wind field.

054430 1835N 07258W 6960 03144 0085 +054 +054 171022 027 051 026 00

[Iceberg]

HWRF makes this a monster with sub 900 pressure and CAT 5 status, still homing in on New Orleans.

GFDL is very similar.

Generally good track consensus on passing between Cuba and Jamaica, with a slight possibility of passing over the tip of cuba, but I am not sure this would effect him much.

[Iceberg]

For completeness here's the GFDL.

It would be a CAT 6(if it existed ! ) but is a CAT 5+ with 200mph gusts.

The consistance of the runs means that a disaster scenario needs to be considered but not yet acted upon.

Katrina weakened before landfall this is currently progeed to hit land stronger than Katrina did.

[Coast]

Predictions today of higher winds at the end of the week than those being touted yesterday?

And the models are again in reasonable agreement of the track:

[kold weather]

Yep models really coming into good agreement now with the set-up that will occur, main threat zone from NOLA to Galveston it seems, fairly packed part of the gulf in terms of oil drilling.

Anyway Gustav looks a little messy now as it decided to stall right over the coast for the last 9hrs or so. There are hints its moving and the latest recon shows this still has an inner core despite this so I can only assume that once it moves away from Haiti strengthening will begin. Odds are way higher then normal for RI in the NW Caribbean ponce it clears the SE tip of Cuba that extends out. GFDL once again calling for a cat-5...

[Iceberg]

The eye did stall didn't it, I can only assume it kind of got caught on mountains, anyway, Cuban Radar indicates that the eye is gradually getting back into shape, it's expanded a bit now as it was very small before(too small), the expanded eye has now come back into contact with the coast though which is still making it a little ragged.

The eye wall has strengthened recently and is now fully banded, with further outer bands just waiting for convection to fire off. Convection is still very disjointed and heavily on the east side.

Once the eye is 50 miles or so away from the coast this should start motoring again, however it needs to pick up speed for this to happen, direction is almost due west atm.

Recon shows that the pressure is gradually dropping down to 997 or so now. with 50Kt probably being a bit generous.

Edited August 27, 2008 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Gustav's eye as shown by Cuban Radar with the strong wrap around that now encloses it. This is allowing pressure to start falling now to 996.

Also not all the models are going for strong intensification, Meto is going for a damp squid with a much stronger storm forming later out in the Atlantic.

Wed Aug 27 07:19:12 EDT 2008

890

WTNT80 EGRR 270453

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2008

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2008 18.0N 72.8W WEAK

12UTC 27.08.2008 19.0N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2008 19.0N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2008 18.3N 76.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2008 17.8N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2008 18.1N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2008 19.0N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 20.1N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 21.4N 85.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 23.1N 87.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.3N 89.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 25.6N 91.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2008 26.4N 92.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.3N 19.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2008 13.3N 19.9W MODERATE

00UTC 30.08.2008 13.7N 22.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 14.4N 25.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 31.08.2008 15.6N 27.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2008 16.6N 31.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 17.7N 34.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2008 18.5N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2008 19.8N 39.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[Iceberg]

Gustav is still oncourse for New Orleans (Louisana) and due to develop into a CAT 5 according to the 06Z models.

The predicted wind areas are interesting and concerning.

[Coast]

Assosiated Press reporting 'Gustav weakens but could become hurricane again'

As of 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Gustav's maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph (95 kph) with higher gusts. The storm was centered about 80 miles (125 kilometers) west of Port-au-Prince. The storm had not moved much during the last few hours, the hurricane center said. But it was expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest.

Jamaica issued a tropical storm warning Wednesday and also remained under a hurricane watch along with the Cayman Islands. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A hurricane warning was in effect for parts of Cuba including the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay. A warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.

As a hurricane, Gustav caused a killer landslide and dumped torrential rains on southern Haiti on Tuesday before weakening to a tropical storm. Rising water threatened Haiti's crops amid protests over high food prices, and oil prices rose on fears the storm could batter oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.