Hurricane Gustav

[Gray-Wolf]

We seem to have been 'spared' a Gustav for a few years but if the models are to be heeded then we now 'Do' have the potential for a very messy landfall along the 'oil coast' of the G.O.M. with the storm surge running in front of it.

Being me I think we should 'notch up' the Cat. forecast to a 4 or 5 over the open Gulf for a while :lol:

[Iceberg]

Reintensification has started again (typically after recon has now left ! ).

Deep cold convection has wrapped around the eye, driven on by a jog to the NW from the centre which now puts it clearly in open water, We can expect the convection to grow and grow now, for the eye feature to start to re-appear in visual and for hurricane strength to be reached quickly as it pulls away.

I think they will notch up the forecast once he is at Hurricane strength again. As to what he makes beyond a CAT 4 it will depend purly on how he copes with ERC's. The banding suggests he probably will cope well but anything can happen.

[BrickFielder]

GFDL Model shows it heading towards New Orleans still at pretty close to CAT 4 untill it gets very close.

Does not look to big though so the sea height may not be too great.

[Calrissian]

Gustav looks a right mess. No matter which of the views I select, its hard to find the centre at the moment. Haiti really whacked the hell out of it.

--

I myself am trying to avoid the hysteria that could easily be the 'New Orleans is DOOMED' train. However, it ain't looking good if Gustav makes it clear south of Cuba.

There are so many variables of course - and we're still 5/6 days out, but frankly, now would be a good idea for anyone in the mecca of Jazz, to take a vacation at least 100 miles further north. At least until next Thursday.

Calrissian: wondering where the Staff of the Gods will land

[Iceberg]

Latest update from the NHC indicates that he is re-organising nicely and taking a direct heading for New Orleans still.

Crunch day seems to be the 1st of September for landfall.

[kold weather]

It seems to be me Gustav is trying to wrap its inner core back up again on the high resolution imagery.

There is some northerly shear as the NHC mentions from a upper level low to the NE of the Islands however this is forecasted to weaken and as Gustav moves westwards becomes less of an issue.

I don't think it does much restrengthening at all in the next 12hrs, with the subtle N shear as well as the next 12hrs is all about it trying to reorganise after Haiti did a number on it.

[ANYWEATHER]

The latest from Accuweather as to where Gustav will end up, I,ll bet there sweating on the Gulf coast in more than one sense! It looks as though it will be heading between the Yucatan and Cuba so it has a lot of perfect warm water at its disposal...watching with interest over the next few days.....

[londonsnow]

I've seen no broadcast coverage of gustav's progression. plenty on the net though. i suspect gustav may creep up the domestic news agenda in days ahead

[tinybill]

i think we can say good bye to new orleans if this comes off cat 4 -5

http://www.weatheronline.com/weather/local...=tropsystempage

Edited August 27, 2008 by tinybill

[beng]

Latest update from the NHC indicates that he is re-organising nicely and taking a direct heading for New Orleans still.

Crunch day seems to be the 1st of September for landfall.

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=...ode=1&map=1

ECM backs this up and also slams another nasty hurricane into Miami 4 days later.

[Iceberg]

GFDL and HWRF both support CAT 4 or 5 hits in the New Orleans area again as well.

[opplevelse]

oh been away from the computer for a bit and just saw this one ... she will be nasty ... stock up on fuel and start buy shares in oil companies which dont have large GoM holdings ...

[Katherine]

What evidence is there that supports development of Gustav back into a major hurricane, threatening New Orleans?

According to the National Hurricane Center, Gustav is packing winds of only 50 MPH and is crawling at a snail's pace away from Hispaniola etc... I'm not ready just yet to believe all the ramped hype about this.

STILL...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV'S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5...AND IT IS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

[Paranoid]

Admittedly i would be tempted to agree with you Katherine, although the models have said for a fair while that this stormc could intensify to a very strong hurricane, and the NW carribean and GOM are where the strongest storms have historically been recorded. Although you are right, we can't be sure until it reaches the GOM, if and when that happens.

[kold weather]

Well the system is a mess right now but for the next 72-96hrs its going over some of the highest heat content in the entire basin, the water in the NW Caribbean can in good atmospheric conditons totally bomb a hurricane out and so just becuase its weak now it could very easily ramp up again and given its small size it could do it a very quick rate.

Don't expect it to do much really in the next 12-18hrs till it totally clears Haiti and the effects the mountions are still having on Gustav are gone, but after that....

[Cookie]

this will be a interesting watch

Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for TS is 75% currently

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Guest weatherchick]

i think we can say good bye to new orleans if this comes off cat 4 -5

http://www.weatheronline.com/weather/local...=tropsystempage

They have the system slated to come in as a Cat 3. Even that is going to cause us huge problems - ESPECIALLY if it comes in slightly to our west. We want it to go in to our east.

[Cookie]

this is handy blog and the guy may be going to intercept this hurricane

http://www.stormvideographer.com/blog/

[opplevelse]

hmmm Not a huge amount of moisture around her

[Iceberg]

No dry air is not helping him reform trying to get a fix on him even on Cuban radar is difficult, I think there is still evidence that Haiti is impeding a bit.

Recon current in and getting close to a centre pass though. and we should have sat back again soon, to the Dirunal max convection should have flared up a we bit.

[Iceberg]

Intensification now underway with pressure dropping and a flare up in convection.

Centre is roughly here. With pressure down to 995mb according to the vortex drop.

winds should start to respond soon.

065030 1805N 07547W 8403 01513 9985 +195 +160 041035 036 029 001 00

000

URNT12 KNHC 280656

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 28/06:44:00Z

B. 17 deg 58 min N

075 deg 32 min W

C. 850 mb 1385 m

D. 38 kt

E. 037 deg 5 nm

F. 122 deg 041 kt

G. 039 deg 026 nm

H. 995 mb

I. 16 C/ 1506 m

J. 20 C/ 1546 m

K. 19 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345/8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF307 0607A GUSTAV OB 06

MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 06:36:00 Z

[Iceberg]

I've plotted the centre on the IR image, as you can see it's now nicely surrounded by deep convection with outflow becoming evident. With a solid LLCC he should intensify quickly now.

[Coast]

Less agreement in the models this morning on the final destination. The NHC track still has 110 mph hitting New Orleans but the latest FOX video update has Paul Dellegatto calling a wind down?

[dallas]

Invest 95l seems to be better organized at the moment, still interested to see if Gustav will get back on track

[Iceberg]

Intensification definately underway with pressure down further to 992mb and winds now responding with 48Kt flight winds.

There should be a shift in path as he is futher south by a long way than progged.

085000 1748N 07540W 8396 01474 9926 +210 +160 342047 048 039 001 00

Pressure now down to 989mb.

So a 10mb drop in 5 hours which is very impressive.

085130 1750N 07535W 8409 01433 9893 +213 +160 311015 020 022 002 03

The pressure isn't far off hurricane now, so we can expect an eye to reform and winds to quickly ramp up.