Hurricane Gustav

[dallas]

It almost seems if he has taken a side step to get into the deeper+warmer waters

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2008 3:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Well as expected convection has exploded, very deep returns in this part of the basin generally mean a system that is undergoing rapid strengthening. Jamaica may put a halt to it but it does depend on how much interaction there is between the two. Interestingly the center did reform last night after the old one raced ahead and got totally exposed.

On the current track it looks like it may go through the Yucatan channel LA rather then N.O although its way to early to get any real good idea of where Gustav is going.

[dallas]

Well as expected convection has exploded, very deep returns in this part of the basin generally mean a system that is undergoing rapid strengthening. Jamaica may put a halt to it but it does depend on how much interaction there is between the two. Interestingly the center did reform last night after the old one raced ahead and got totally exposed.

On the current track it looks like it may go through the Yucatan channel LA rather then N.O although its way to early to get any real good idea of where Gustav is going.

Kold, I see TD8 is now formed, and scheduled to take a curve westwards in a few days. have two hurricanes ever merged into a single storm?

[kold weather]

Well what tends to happen is one system can absorb another if there is a dominant system but that tend sto really hurt both systems if that is attempted.

Anyway recon still showing some steady pressure drops:

000

URNT12 KNHC 281026

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008

A. 28/10:10:40Z

B. 17 deg 55 min N

075 deg 31 min W

C. 700 mb 3003 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg 000 nm

F. 148 deg 067 kt

G. 055 deg 007 nm

H. 988 mb

I. 8 C/ 3050 m

J. 14 C/ 3042 m

K. 9 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF307 0607A GUSTAV OB 16

MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 10:08:40 Z

[dallas]

Well what tends to happen is one system can absorb another if there is a dominant system but that tend sto really hurt both systems if that is attempted.

Cheers Kold, at least they are taking early measures for Gustav

[Coast]

Associated Press update just out:

'The storm was expected to pass very close to Jamaica later in the day, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It's maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph (85 kph). The tropical storm was forecast to regain strength and the hurricane center said it could become a hurricane again by Friday'

'Gustav's expected track pointed directly at the Cayman Islands, an offshore banking center where residents boarded up homes and stocked up on emergency supplies. By Labor Day, Gustav could make landfall anywhere from south Texas to the Florida panhandle, and hurricane experts said everyone in between should be concerned.

"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure," said meteorologist Rebecca Waddington at the National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in the Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm."

New Orleans began planning a possible mandatory evacuation, hoping to prevent the chaos it saw after Hurricane Katrina struck three years ago Friday. Mayor Ray Nagin left the Democratic National Convention in Denver to help the city prepare'

[Katherine]

It's maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph (85 kph).

Dear Associated Press,

Errant and un-necessary apostrophe detected in press release. Please remove.

** Is in grammar pedant mode **

[Coast]

Dear Associated Press,

Errant and un-necessary apostrophe detected in press release. Please remove.

** Is in grammar pedant mode **

I only cut and pasted - verbatim, I should have grammar checked first!!!!

Edited August 28, 2008 by Coast

[SMU]

I only cut and pasted - verbatim, I should have grammar checked first!!!!

Gustav is now back to Hurricane status- Lets see how it develops throughout the day & how it interacts with Jamaica- If your wishing for a +3 CAT storm then as little as possible please.........

S

[liquidjp]

Kold, I see TD8 is now formed, and scheduled to take a curve westwards in a few days. have two hurricanes ever merged into a single storm?

I think this last happened when Wilma and Alpha (a TS) collided in 2005, the beast that was Wilma absorbed what was left of Alpha with barely a burp!

But if Gustav took it's most easerly course, and Eight it's most westerly...i would not like to be in North Florida now...

[Guest weatherchick]

New Orleans began planning a possible mandatory evacuation, hoping to prevent the chaos it saw after Hurricane Katrina struck three years ago Friday. Mayor Ray Nagin left the Democratic National Convention in Denver to help the city prepare'

lol - Nagin could have stayed in Denver - Governor Jindal has pulled rank and has activated the National Guard, as well as preparing transportation out of the city for those who need it!!

BUT - I did just hear on the news that the Corps are concerned the levees won't hold if we get hit (no surprised to me).

Edited August 28, 2008 by weatherchick

[dallas]

I think this last happened when Wilma and Alpha (a TS) collided in 2005, the beast that was Wilma absorbed what was left of Alpha with barely a burp!

But if Gustav took it's most easerly course, and Eight it's most westerly...i would not like to be in North Florida now...

Cheers for that, yep Floridians must be keeping a keen eye I expect

[Iceberg]

Very rapid intensification.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT

LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO

REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF

GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE

WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE

ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.

[Cookie]

thanks for all the updates guys.

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2008 11:30 GMT

Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 7 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 7 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 31 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 43 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 67 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 91 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 67 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 115 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 91 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 19 hours

probability for TS is 70% within 7 hours

Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 19 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 19 hours

George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 43 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 43 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 67 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 67 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 67 hours

Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 67 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 67 hours

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 115 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 115 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 115 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 91 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 67 hours

Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 67 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

[Coast]

BUT - I did just hear on the news that the Corps are concerned the levees won't hold if we get hit (no surprised to me).

Well keep your head down weatherchick!

[liquidjp]

Cheers for that, yep Floridians must be keeping a keen eye I expect

sorry this is off topic a bit but interesting, my curiosity was piqued so i did a bit of research, it seems if the storms are of comparable strengh they orbit each other something called the fujiwahra effect.

That would be something amazing to see if it were two major hurricanes (well from a long distance away anyhow!)

[opplevelse]

Gustav is now back to Hurricane status- Lets see how it develops throughout the day & how it interacts with Jamaica- If your wishing for a +3 CAT storm then as little as possible please.........

S

ummm let's perhaps? :)

Still very little moisture in the North East quadrant particularly, still is a fair bit of uncertainty in this storm with the models wildly disagreeing with track and intensity. Better for all to take a wait and see approach, things will be clearer on Friday / Saturday.

[Iceberg]

Pressure deepening still down to 983mb, so another 5mb in a two hours. 983mb would roughly support 70Kt.

113300 1752N 07539W 6960 03026 9831 +149 +070 257012 016 035 001 03

[SMU]

One last thing from Me--

I think this mornings jog South & west is BAD news for New orleans-

The model Guidence yesterday was continually being moved EASt along the Gulf coast- this was because Gustav had lost its forward momentum-

Remember its going to recurve North at somepoint- the Longer it loses its westerly component the earlier the recurve would occur-

The guidence was beginning to pull it towards the Florida Pan handle- so New Orleans was probably the most westerly point in the 'cone'-

Now with that jog South west & a bit more forward momentum- the model guidence & Clustering will move back west- leaving NO probably somewhere slap bang in the middle/ Slightly to the right- texas is back in the fray again..

The concerns will grow today once Gustav has left Jamaica & what sort of form he is in, the fact that a run straight up the yucatan channel could be likely further hightens expectations that this could exceed Cat 3 status, & will certainly provoke large concerns along the central gulf coast...

S

Edited August 28, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Iceberg]

It has also delayed landfall by 24 hrs which will give her a longer time over water to grow. I agree Steve this isn't good news.

[Cookie]

Iceberg:

Date first named storm is formed: 14 June

Last storm dissipated: 30 Nov

Name of strongest hurricane:* Gustav

Number of Hurricanes (Cat 1+): 10

Number of major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 4

I hope you ain't right iceberg

[Iceberg]

Pure fluke !.

[dallas]

sorry this is off topic a bit but interesting, my curiosity was piqued so i did a bit of research, it seems if the storms are of comparable strengh they orbit each other something called the fujiwahra effect.

That would be something amazing to see if it were two major hurricanes (well from a long distance away anyhow!)

I agree, not something that will happen frequently(which is probaly a good thing) but yes interesting all the same

getting busy over there, NOAA has just mentioned a wave moving off the coast of Africa, it also has some potential for development

[kold weather]

Vortex suggests pressure of 985mbs and the IR shows a warm spot and a tiny eyewall like feature as well, which probably is the inner core, once again tiny core is leading to pretty rapid strengthening.

Recon data also suggests a slight south of west motion about 2hrs ago. Once past Jamaica, this will probably bomb.