Runaway Warming - who first thought of the idea?

[Chris Knight]

Runaway warming, of course, has never happened, and will likely never happen, but someone thought of it to instill fear into the minds of people.

Does anybody out there remember who was responsible or when this insidious meme was brought into our consciousness?

Was it Carl Sagan?

Edited August 25, 2008 by Chris Knight

[SP1986]

Runaway warming, of course, has never happened, and will likely never happen, but someone thought of it to instill fear into the minds of people.

Does anybody out there remember who was responsible or when this insidious meme was brought into our consciousness?

Was it Carl Sagan?

I think it was probably based on planetary meteorology whereby increased carbon dioxide levels (runaway levels) cause a runaway warming which is plausible in theory and we only have to look at Venus to see that that action was probably in work a few billion years ago. Not sure who through of the idea, but I wouldnt be as dismissive as you are, it's bound to happen sooner or later whether it be 100 years or 100,000 years!

[Calrissian]

Are you actually trying to slate Sagan? He remains one of the greatest visionaries of the 20'th century, and one of the few people who had both personal integrity and a fine grasp of science.

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Are you saying 'runaway warming' is not a feasible possibility for Earth? Really? There is no data either way, but to dispute it merely as a 'meme', that is very closed thinking.

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As for first touted it, well, yes, the concept certainly came from observations and studies of other planets in our star system. I doubt any one person could be attributed with coming up with the term.

[Roger J Smith]

It must have been before July 1987, because I have a recall of a discussion of global warming with a TV reporter who was asking me about an unrelated weather story, and he was asking me if I thought it was true that Ontario's ski industry would be wiped out by the turn of the century (that would be eight years ago if you're wondering) and palm trees would be growing in New York City, etc etc. And this was definitely in 1987 because we were talking about the unusual heat that had developed in that part of the world in the spring and summer of that year. So your culprit is probably some American speaking between 1982 (when global warming first gained any sort of traction) and 1986. All I can recall now is that I associated the theory with "the establishment" meaning NOAA and Environment Canada. I don't think it was a very hot topic in the UK until 1990.

[Chris Knight]

Are you actually trying to slate Sagan? He remains one of the greatest visionaries of the 20'th century, and one of the few people who had both personal integrity and a fine grasp of science.

-

Are you saying 'runaway warming' is not a feasible possibility for Earth? Really? There is no data either way, but to dispute it merely as a 'meme', that is very closed thinking.

-

As for first touted it, well, yes, the concept certainly came from observations and studies of other planets in our star system. I doubt any one person could be attributed with coming up with the term.

I also admire Sagan.

No, I am not trying to slate anybody, and yes, I am saying that "runaway warming" is unfeasible (unless the sun ups it's output, which is not due for a long time yet), because, as you say, there is no data either way, and it is now in the minds of the, thus uninformed consciousness, it is merely a "meme", worrying in concept and without basis, except that it may have happened somewhere else, that we have even less evidence about than our own planet.

Who was it, who coined the phrase, anybody?

[androcles]

Hey Guys,

Herewith lies incontrovertible proof of Global Warming

http://www.thehumorarchives.com/joke/Proof_of_global_warming

Enjoy!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

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Are you saying 'runaway warming' is not a feasible possibility for Earth? Really? There is no data either way, but to dispute it merely as a 'meme', that is very closed thinking.

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Caused by man....yes

Roger...has it stopped snowing in Ontario? interesting post mate, what was your imput/response at the time?

BFTP

Edited August 29, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

Wouldn't you think 'runaway cooling', having happened during 'snowball earth', shows that the process of being 'stuck' in a positive feedback loop is a plausible position?

There may be ultimate limiting environmental factors to warming/cooling but that does not mean that the rapid period of global change during such an event would not leave the earth a near sterile ball.

We need to tease apart the 'sci-fi' version of oceans boiling away into space with the sci-reality version of oceanic poisoning due to acidification.

[Methuselah]

Was it Henri Laplace?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aaaaaaaaaargh!!!! Global warming alert!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

[laserguy]

Aaaaaaaaaargh!!!! Global warming alert!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html

TWS - Hope GW doesn't see that !

Meanwhile, spanner~works= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...8/31/do3105.xml

[Chris Knight]

Was it Henri Laplace?

Was it? Can you give a brief precis of what he said, and a link please, Pete?

[millennia]

Wouldn't you think 'runaway cooling', having happened during 'snowball earth', shows that the process of being 'stuck' in a positive feedback loop is a plausible position?

There may be ultimate limiting environmental factors to warming/cooling but that does not mean that the rapid period of global change during such an event would not leave the earth a near sterile ball.

We need to tease apart the 'sci-fi' version of oceans boiling away into space with the sci-reality version of oceanic poisoning due to acidification.

First of all depends where you start. From an Ice Age we experience "runaway" warming to where we are today. We see maximums and minimums in a pretty tight band (by Venus standards) which are readjustments of equilibria and therefore runaway nothing.

Second, how rapid do you think the changes are in switches between Ice Ages and Inter-glacials? None of these sterilised the Earth yet and we have absolutely NO evidence of that kind of rapid temperature change happening now.

And finally.... sci-reality oceanic poisoning? Where? We are still at one of the lowest CO2 concentrations in Earth's history. Where do you think all the life that made the white cliffs of Dover came from at a time when atmospheric CO2 was 3000ppm? It amazes me how these scientists make observations with no reference to millions of years of evidence that they are talking complete BS.

[Android]

It's usually a mistake to assume scientists are making obvious mistakes. If something seems to simple to be true it usually is.

Species change over time. Species of coral that survived through a 3000ppm atmosphere and associated lower pH oceans have long ago been replaced by species of coral which are not adapted for such low pH oceans (by virtue of not needing to be). Now if we sink the pH fast enough we will likely get mass extinctions of such species of coral and many other calcifying organisms.

There are extinctions associated with glacial and interglacial climate change, but of course it hasn't "sterilized" the Earth. The 0.8C warming over the past century is a far greater rate of warming than the about 6C warming over 5000 years that took Earth out of the last glacial period.

Edited September 1, 2008 by Android

[Chris Knight]

It's usually a mistake to assume scientists are making obvious mistakes. If something seems to simple to be true it usually is.

Species change over time. Species of coral that survived through a 3000ppm atmosphere and associated lower pH oceans have long ago been replaced by species of coral which are not adapted for such low pH oceans (by virtue of not needing to be). Now if we sink the pH fast enough we will likely get mass extinctions of such species of coral and many other calcifying organisms.

There are extinctions associated with glacial and interglacial climate change, but of course it hasn't "sterilized" the Earth. The 0.8C warming over the past century is a far greater rate of warming than the about 6C warming over 5000 years that took Earth out of the last glacial period.

Species may exhibit variation and may evolve into other species.

However, over time, a species remains a species.

There may species alive today that were alive 50 million years ago. If it were possible to bring a modern and ancient pair of the same species together, they would be able to breed and only show variations within the possible range for that species.

Some species are highly adapted to their current environment, others are more generalist. Some, by their very nature, change the environment they settle down in and eventually they themselves cannot exist there, and a succession ecosystem develops. Even plants and fixed corals migrate through their offspring.

Every possible niche from the hottest dark smoker in the ocean depths to the coldest brine bubble in Antarctic ice has its specialised inhabitants. They, and a myriad other species living in environments between, will be capable of exploiting any changes the climate can throw at them.

And some species will have specialised themselves into extinction. Still, for a time, life was good.

[Gray-Wolf]

And some species will have specialised themselves into extinction. Still, for a time, life was good.

The shame being that it is our species that may drive the next 'geat dying'.

The only excuse being that 'we are of nature' and so our actions are 'natual'...................I don't buy into that way of thinking of course