Autumn 2008 thoughts and hopes, joys and woes

[damianslaw]

Noticed we have a winter thread already but no autumn thread as yet.

With less than a week to go I think it is apt time to open up a new thread for Autumn 2008. Post your thoughts about the autumn and hopes for the autumn. Also just use it as a general thread to discuss what you like and dislike about autumn. Not sure if the mods will change the tact of the thread, however, the general discussion thread I think is usually used to discuss weather of very recent past, current weather and immediate future, also the model threads thread is used to discuss how you feel about the models.

Anyhow, I'm thinking we could be in for an interesting Autumn weatherwise not the benign stuff of recent years. I'm expecting a rather unsettled affair, with September not delivering any real late summer conditions. Also think we will see a notably cold spell either in October or November (preferably November).

My hopes are as always for a traditional season, last year felt like autumn unlike 2005 and 2006 which were ridicuously mild (late Nov 2005 exception).

I rate autumn just behind winter as my favourite season, however, it does contain my personal favourite period of the year i.e. roughly 20th Oct - 7th Nov, this is a period of rapid change in feel as the clocks go back and the autumn gales traditionally reach a peak, temps can fluctuate markedly and I generally find it a 'lively' interesting period of the year weatherwise and also when my thoughts turn to my favourite season winter.

[LadyPakal]

If Autumn is as colourful as the last two have been up here, I will be happy.

[Anti-Mild]

I hope for a Keatsian season of mists and mellow fruitfulness!

A September of gentle warmth with a chill in the air in the evenings.

An October of the first frosts and fog, and trees of red, gold, orange, and yellow.

A November with a decent cold snap with the first snow of the season - the second half like that of November 2005 would be nice.

[Bottesford]

I rate autumn just behind winter as my favourite season, however, it does contain my personal favourite period of the year i.e. roughly 20th Oct - 7th Nov, this is a period of rapid change in feel as the clocks go back and the autumn gales traditionally reach a peak, temps can fluctuate markedly and I generally find it a 'lively' interesting period of the year weatherwise and also when my thoughts turn to my favourite season winter.

Funny that's my least favourite time of year!

Hate it when the clocks move as it's suddenly it's dark while you're still at work - unbearably depressing!

Anyway as for autumn I'm hoping for a very warm September to make up a bit for the generally poor summer. After that I tend to not care quite so much but a windy & wild October is traditional and the time of year I'd most welcome anything from the Atlantic. However last year was very pleasent as it was so settled in this period which made for some stunning autumn scenes.

Ideally I'd like a very warm start to autumn followed by a stormy period then a rapid cooldown into a frosty November.

[BARRY]

a dry september would be ideal as we have a months worth of outdoor painting to do

[Tim]

An October of the first frosts and fog, and trees of red, gold, orange, and yellow.

The difference from one part of the country to another. Here the first frost probably December.

A November with a decent cold snap with the first snow of the season - the second half like that of November 2005 would be nice.

I'll get a sleety shower in Jan or Feb if I'm lucky, only the one though!

[Cookie]

I'm hoping for a windy as possible autumn with plenty of gales.

I don't like the fact of the darkening nights, as it is at the moment would suit me all year round

[Optimus Prime]

Looking at the charts for the first sign of cold pooling, perhaps a cool start to the far North West of Europe.

I'd say a fairly seasonable Autumn. Perhaps cool/near average similar to last year.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

A September of gentle warmth with a chill in the air in the evenings.

An October of the first frosts and fog, and trees of red, gold, orange, and yellow.

A November with a decent cold snap with the first snow of the season

Pretty much my wish too AM :o

[Gavin P]

I'm expecting the coolest autumn since 1993, with pretty much none of the three months coming out much above average, and the chance of November coming in more than 1c under par.

[Weather-history]

We've not had a widespread spell of potent autumnal gales for a while. Maybe we are going to get such a spell this time around.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I expect a mild autumn- we don't get much else these days! Other than that, I do think we're long overdue a windy Atlantic spell in November in particular- I can't remember any from the last four Novembers. Octobers seem to have been fairly calm as well since the windy one in 2002.

My preference is generally for "episodic" autumn weather with frequent changes of pattern, though I have a leaning towards warm sunshine in September and cold showery northerly and north-westerly winds in October and November, and towards crisp hazy sunshine type anticyclonic weather and showery polar maritime airmasses for all three months. Summerlike occurrences like 8 October 1995 or 27 October 2005 are also always welcome.

Interestingly, while many autumns have followed my preferences in at least one of the three months, none have done so in all three months. 1955, 1997 and 2003 followed the script rather well in September and October, but fell down in November in each case. The best examples of the sort of November I'm after occurred in 1947, 1969, 1996 and 2005, but again the Septembers and/or Octobers didn't really follow. I could also quote 1985 and 1993 for having interesting October/November combos but being let down by the Septembers.

[SP1986]

I'm not going to make a forecast but my expectations would be a largely mild Autumn but with a larger frequency of colder spell this Autumn, maybe with some early snowfall? I would expect a rather wet and windy Autumn, similar to those we expect as the Autumn average.

[Mark Bayley]

My hopes for Autumn would be

Warm settled September

Cool with frosts and fog in October

Cold with the first snows in November

The CFS charts seem to be hinting, or where when i last looked at them, a slightly dryer than average Autumn with temps around average, in other words an average Autumn

[Tucco]

My hopes for Autumn would be

Warm settled September

Cool with frosts and fog in October

Cold with the first snows in November

I agree, a dry spell is needed the ground is so wet. Continuation of this wet weather can only increase the likelihood of flooding in the Autumn. A ince dry spell through September with increasing colder nights would be great. Trees are just starting change probably with low maxs and woeful lack of sunshine.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[Geordiesnow]

I agree, a dry spell is needed the ground is so wet. Continuation of this wet weather can only increase the likelihood of flooding in the Autumn. A ince dry spell through September with increasing colder nights would be great. Trees are just starting change probably with low maxs and woeful lack of sunshine.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Quite early leaf change then even if you do on quite high ground then? The only leaves that have changed colour here are the ones that don't get much sunlight but apart from those the trees are still green here.

September - warm start then gradually cooling off, some cool nights i would like aswell in September.

October - First ground frosts, maybe even an Northerly at the end of the month, and of corse alot of wet and windy weather.

November - Northerlies, snow showers, air frosts being recorded aswell, Plus some windy weather aswell.

[The PIT]

A nice brief warm spell about two weeks worth in September then plenty of strong winds to get us ready for the coming Winter.

November lets have some proper snow for once nearly always used to have a week of Snow in November.

[Bottesford]

Last year November delivered the only snow I saw before the light flurries around easter (spring!). Rarely sticks around much in November though as seas are still too warm.

[Eugene]

Just like Gavin P and OP i`m going for a cool/near average autumn this year, looking at the charts cool sub 546 dam airmasses are moving southwards early September and with northerly blocking this autumn i think we`ll see cool PM/PC air dominating the UK, look out for the greens on 850 hPa charts to become extensive quite early this September out in northern europe and north atlantic, i can see some early snowfall mid to late October for the north.

[Gavin P]

This ECM three monthly anomaly chart is usually very accurate;

http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html

And as you can see its going for basically an average or cool autumn for most of northern europe. Quite a change on recent years indeed.

[Glacier Point]

basically an average or cool autumn for most of northern europe. Quite a change on recent years indeed.

... totally agree with that. Note that pressure anomaly over Iceland towards Svalbard.

I have just put the finishing touches to the seasonal outlook, and the suggestion is not for an Indian Summer as perhaps thought, but a continuation of the low angular momentum base state leading to high pressure anomalies to our west and north and low pressure anomalies over central Europe and the UK.

[SMU]

... totally agree with that. Note that pressure anomaly over Iceland towards Svalbard.

I have just put the finishing touches to the seasonal outlook, and the suggestion is not for an Indian Summer as perhaps thought, but a continuation of the low angular momentum base state leading to high pressure anomalies to our west and north and low pressure anomalies over central Europe and the UK.

Could be a very Wet Autumn if the Summer Storm track anomaly remains to the South-

Ex Hurricane remains heading for the UK spring to Mind...

Gustav maybe the first...

S

[Gavin P]

A repeat of autumn 2000 perhaps Steve?

[londonsnow]

... totally agree with that. Note that pressure anomaly over Iceland towards Svalbard.

I have just put the finishing touches to the seasonal outlook, and the suggestion is not for an Indian Summer as perhaps thought, but a continuation of the low angular momentum base state leading to high pressure anomalies to our west and north and low pressure anomalies over central Europe and the UK.

surprising that. i assumed that in a nature balancing sort of way that after a summer dominated by a southerly jet we might get a little indian summer. ah well, it will bother some if we don't get it but i'm looking forward to a wet and windy autumn

[Snowyowl9]

A repeat of autumn 2000 perhaps Steve?

A few charts from that autumn starting with the warmest day at 22c here on sept 11th the first half was warm and reasonably settled,2nd half was very wet and unsettled.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...a0012000911.gif

Then the gales to severe gales started on oct 3rd with lots of twigs and boughs broken off by the 4th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120001003.gif

More gales on the 9th the first ground frost on the 22nd at 2c then more gales 24th/25th not damaging though.

Oct 28th yet more gales but the highlight of october 2000 was the 29th/30th infact that was the highlight all that autumn as november gave no snow as the 29th gave torential rain/hail with flash floods.

30th severe gales,heavy snow shower with a covering then a thaw with frequent showers/then as there were still severe gales a squall, storm force in that with a sleet and snow shower to end that dramatic day!!!!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120001029.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120001030.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220001030.gif

A colder crisp autumn I would like to see but that doesn`t look very likely this year... wetter windy and cooler overall looks more like it.

Some snow in october aswell.