Tropical Depression 14W

[Somerset Squall]

TD14W has formed in the West Pacific, east of Luzon. Convection has persisted over a consolidating low level centre. The new depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm prior to landfall in 24 hours in Luzon. It's likely to bring flooding rains to the area. 14W is then set to struggle because of land interaction with mountainous terrain, and it's uncertain whether it will be able to properly recover once in emerges in the South China Sea. 14W is expected to weaken back to depression status over Luzon and maintain intensity once it moves back over water. Any strengthening would be slow at this point as the LLC is likely to be severely disrupted by the mountains of Luzon. Going to be a rainmaker more than anything.

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tropical storm no name? B)

[Somerset Squall]

Luck really isn't with 14W! The LLC has been weakened by land interaction with Luzon, and now the depression is being battered by strong westerly shear. 14W is unlikely to attain tropical storm status and JTWC predict dissipation by 36hrs, if not sooner.

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hardly worth a thread

Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 50% currently

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.