Netweather Autumn and early Winter Long range forecast update

[Paul]

The long ranger for Autumn and the first month of winter is now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[The PIT]

Ach still no forecast for our region. I spotted you've got central Southern England sometime ago we used to be central Northern England. Time South Yorkshire was recognised. We have to do an invasion somewhere me thinks anyone got any spare tanks.

[Paul]

Lol, just for you I'll get central northern England in there on the next update.

[The PIT]

Lol, just for you I'll get central northern England in there on the next update.

Hurray and lot no violence. Tanks stay at base.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good one Paul, I think thats a good shot for the next couple of months or so, Im thinking the jet will be flying low once again so lots of perhaps nice surprises on the way and more of a traditional Autumn....

[Glacier Point]

This is what I have Paul...

[Anti-Mild]

It looks like, if the forecast is correct, that we could have a seasonal autumn and early winter...which would be nice!

[beng]

This is what I have Paul...

UGH! - better prepare the lifeboats if that's close to accurate GP!

[Mark Bayley]

This is what I have Paul...

Sorry for being dumb however i was wondering what that chart meant, I'm not as knowledgeable as some of you guys I will have a guess, is it something to do with high pressure and low pressure or something?

[Snowyowl9]

This is what I have Paul...

Could be a very stormy/very wet autumn this year then, as those years 1998-2001 some the worst autumn storms seen and heaviest torrential rain during any autumn well heaviest rain ever, the period during sept for flooding 1999, october for the damaging storms,hope for more colder air in the mix.

[Glacier Point]

Sorry for being dumb however i was wondering what that chart meant, I'm not as knowledgeable as some of you guys I will have a guess, is it something to do with high pressure and low pressure or something?

Spot on Mark. These represent 500mb height anomalies. Blue = below, red = above. These are generally a good guide to surface pressure and overall weather patterns and they do indicate an unsettled autumn. There is already a cue of tropical depressions starting to develop in the Atlantic off Africa with the first of them potentially finding its way into the jet at day 10.

[Mark Bayley]

Thanks for reply GP

[Paul]

This is what I have Paul...

Cheers GP, I'm assuming that's for September?

[Glacier Point]

Sep - Nov

[SP1986]

I imagine with depression after depression an average Autumn could well be the case, but with higher than average minimum temperatures but lower than average maximums, and very wet. I imagine the tropical depression moving up could well bring some close, sticky days though.

[Paul]

Sep - Nov

Really ought to have read it more closely. Will have a look at creating some 500mb anomaly charts for our stuff, will be an interesting comparison.

[Gavin P]

Thanks Paul B) Very interesting forecast, and I've got to say much more useful than the effort put out today by our national forecast organisation. Though I recognise its horses for courses and they have a lot more scrutiny than Netweather or any other independent forecaster.

I've just read over on TWO that the CFS model is painting a cooler picture now for winter. Any views on this?

[stewfox]

I've just read over on TWO that the CFS model is painting a cooler picture now for winter. Any views on this?

Any forcast that suggest a cooler picture for winter is going to imply a milder winter

Id prefer a forcast for record heat for the winter ,then i can get my snow shoes out

[shuggee]

How did I miss this?!

One word comes to mind - average!

[Stu_London]

Sorry if this has been mentioned but interestingly the NW seasonal forecast gives us an outrun in terms of annual CET, pretty close to being below 10C