METO Autumn forecast

[tcc]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/autumn2008/

It looks like they think it's going to be a pretty average autumn!

Thoughts?

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Just as a matter of interest anyone know exatly when in September the Meto release their first proper winter forecast?

[shuggee]

For me, that's a brave call. Below average rainfall in the autumn period... Hmmm.

Just as a matter of interest anyone know exatly when in September the Meto release their first proper winter forecast?

Well the site says:

Updates and reviews of the forecast

This first assessment for Winter 2008/9 will be updated in September.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

So just keep checking!

[mountain shadow]

Doesn't actually say much does it?

It would be nice if they could at least comment on whether it would stormier or not than average as well.

[MAF]

i suppose they want to be non-commital about how precise the forecast will be. as ever, LRF's are very difficult to be accurate, and if they were to put one-liners to the affect "stormy weather for the periods....." they could have all sorts of comeback if it doesn't materialise

[0000]

Doesn't actually say much does it?

It would be nice if they could at least comment on whether it would stormier or not than average as well.

vagueness usualy means they're not too sure.

[johnholmes]

its not vague folks, just think a little about it?

Average to above average temperatures and below average rainfall.

Now try and put the synoptic pattern to that?

Does it suggest a lot of wind?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Indeed John.

A sniff of high pressure in that forecast.

[SP1986]

I have no reason to doubt this forecast from the met-office they are usually pretty close to the mark. Perhaps what some people call an 'indian summer' in the cards? It'll be interesting to see what the models show in the next few weeks.

[mountain shadow]

Indeed John.

A sniff of high pressure in that forecast.

But would high pressure not imply frost at night there by lowering the average temperature?

Also, if the jet was roaring, any low pressure system might zip through quickly there by lowering the rainfall amounts.

You can see how the lack of detail can lead to increased speculation and indeed shows how the MET can arrive at a 'correct' forecast from different weather patterns.