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Hurricane Gustav Pt II


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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres

Gustav sounds like a busted flush then.

Won't likely stop Fox's Hurricane Harrigan who I imagine still will be standing 45 degrees into the wind in a car lot somewhere while a producer stands off-screen throwing the contents of a bin at him.

Edited by AtlanticFlamethrower
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Posted
  • Location: Erdington
  • Location: Erdington
In new orleans it was around 12 feet - though that was probably an underestimate - in the bajou south of new orleans it was 13-14 feet and perhaps 18 feet on the Louisiana Alabama border

Effectively, Gustav is forecast to produce the same level. You get where this could be going. The reduction in storm surge that NHC is currently banging on about is great, much more important for NO than the wind levels. Smashed windows and replacing wooden houses is easier if you don't have to pump out the city first.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

With the situation looking better and better for this storm to be less powerfull then originally forecast what are the bettings that there will a backlash against Mayor Nagin and his Storm of the century quotes?

You just know there will be those that pick up on that and will be upset about being forced to evacuate if they didn't need to. Unfortunatly it's a lose lose situation for the Mayor in times like these as we just cannot predict weather reliably into the future with any great accuracy. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

It's still quite amazing that even with all the technology we have it's still so hard to take all the factors into consideration of mother nature.

Just watching a video now as he and a news team discuss arranging a sleep over in city hall.

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
Effectively, Gustav is forecast to produce the same level. You get where this could be going. The reduction in storm surge that NHC is currently banging on about is great, much more important for NO than the wind levels. Smashed windows and replacing wooden houses is easier if you don't have to pump out the city first.

True, but track and wind direction is key too - The main issues related to Lake Pontchartrain and The Industrial Canal with Katrina and the Eye passed E of the City. With Gus, the Eye will pass well west of the City. Rainfall will be an issue too, though the speed of Gus may help with that too. New Orleans is a big bowl, Downtown actually sits below sea level, so surface water flooding may still be an issue. We'll see. It's certainly not a issue they can relax about yet, but it's better than the 22 foot surge they were talking about yesterday - that would have been catastrophic.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
With the situation looking better and better for this storm to be less powerfull then originally forecast what are the bettings that there will a backlash against Mayor Nagin and his Storm of the century quotes?

You just know there will be those that pick up on that and will be upset about being forced to evacuate if they didn't need to. Unfortunatly it's a lose lose situation for the Mayor in times like these as we just cannot predict weather reliably into the future with any great accuracy. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

It's still quite amazing that even with all the technology we have it's still so hard to take all the factors into consideration of mother nature.

Just watching a video now as he and a news team discuss arranging a sleep over in city hall.

Heh...I think he has enough on his plate outside the context of natural disasters.

As for 'technology'....well we will never fully understand fully the natural world or the meteorological world. There will always be some degree of gulf between us and mother nature. Its humbling in a way.

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Posted
  • Location: Erdington
  • Location: Erdington
With the situation looking better and better for this storm to be less powerfull then originally forecast what are the bettings that there will a backlash against Mayor Nagin and his Storm of the century quotes?

You just know there will be those that pick up on that and will be upset about being forced to evacuate if they didn't need to. Unfortunatly it's a lose lose situation for the Mayor in times like these as we just cannot predict weather reliably into the future with any great accuracy. He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

It's still quite amazing that even with all the technology we have it's still so hard to take all the factors into consideration of mother nature.

Just watching a video now as he and a news team discuss arranging a sleep over in city hall.

Hopefully he'll get cut some slack. He did what he had to do. Better to resign over crying wolf, than to resign over dead bodies. I'd have done the same. He can hold his head up high. NHC forecast it to go back up to a cat 4, low cat 5 and he had to run with the info at the time. It was always about the storm surge rather than the winds. They were forecasting 22 feet at one point (in contrast, Katrina was only 12 foot). Given those sorts of numbers, storm of the century would be a fair description. But don't forget, thousands of people were in trailers, even with a cat 2 you wouldn't want to be in one from a wind point of view alone, let alone floating away in it.

I hope they chill out on him. They probably will, Katrina is still too fresh in the memory of the editors.

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Posted
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip
  • Location: Left of centre off of the strip

He is still a very nasty storm, just not as nasty as was predicted. I wouldnt go around saying things like "Gustav sounds like a busted flush then." ... I wouldnt want to be in his path.

Eye will be on the radar again shortly

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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hampshire
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hampshire

looks like they've handled this one well so far - even if its a "busted flush", at least they now have the plans and organisation in place , that actually works. they'll be very well prepared for the next Katrina or even a cat 5.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Agreed.

Lets not right this storm off yet. If its reduced intencity has surprised forecasters, i'm sure it could go the other way just as quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
It's still quite amazing that even with all the technology we have it's still so hard to take all the factors into consideration of mother nature.

You try telling that to the global warming / climate change brigade! Do they really think a normal hurricane season constitutes alerting the earth of "impending doom"?

Off topic, but fully agree with you with re: Mother Nature.

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I. 10 C/ 3054 m

J. 16 C/ 3046 m

Refer to my above post..........

The thermal gradient has increased to 6C now from an earlier VDM of 2C-

This in getting more organised now & the growth in temperature gradient will only help to increase intensification-

Also Forward momentum has dropped to 16 MPH -

I notice the guys over @ Eastern have finally picked the above points up-

S

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
I. 10 C/ 3054 m

J. 16 C/ 3046 m

Refer to my above post..........

The thermal gradient has increased to 6C now from an earlier VDM of 2C-

This in getting more organised now & the growth in temperature gradient will only help to increase intensification-

Also Forward momentum has dropped to 16 MPH -

I notice the guys over @ Eastern have finally picked the above points up-

S

thats what they have been worried about if the forward motion drops they have been telling people to pray that it didn't

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

doesn't seem to have done as well as expected in the GOM

Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)

probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Jackson (32.3 N, 90.2 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Meridian (32.4 N, 88.7 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Galveston (29.4 N, 94.8 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Shreveport (32.6 N, 94.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Houston (29.8 N, 95.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hampshire
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hampshire
Someone just asked Louisiana radio if Gustav was going to do a U turn and go back and hit Cuba again :o

just wave those confederate flags, pray a lot and it might happen...

:D:D:D

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Hi peoples-

Awaiting the latest VDM message-

Latest IR -

HERE

importantly the eyewall is now fully closed & deep convection is filling ALLquadrants-

I am looking towards the next VDM ( if someone can post it when it comes in) for the following-

line H: a drop to 950 MB- or below

& lines I & J to have a thermal gradient +>8c

Whilst gradually running out of time this is certainly getting its act together at the worst possible moment.....

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Erdington
  • Location: Erdington
do the noaa have a radio input. if they don't, they should

Not continuous, but podcasts are available via www.nhc.noaa.gov. Listen also to local non stop coverage on commercial radio at www.1300espn.com.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Convection bursting in the Northern eyewall now, overshadowing the eye, I think we may well see the eye try and emerge again.

The thing to note whilst heat content is low the fast foward speed will allow for it not to matter, Felix went over similar heat content at its peak and that didn't stop it...

Shear seems to be easing very quickly off, the system getting symmetric and bursting eyewall is strongly suggestive of a strengthening hurricane, we shall have to wait and see but this is the WORST possible situation for LA and N.O sadly, a system that is strengthening. Wind damage to N.O will be more severe than with Katrina.

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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hampshire
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hampshire

if you have a digital box, dont forget that CBS news will be on the sky channel at 12.30

thats channel 82.

back to WIBR-FM online : they are saying that the storms forward momentum is 20MPH . so its increasing in movement speed.

landfall is expected to be literally over baton rouge.

cat 3 expected.

(just retyping what i'm hearing on internet radio)

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