Hurricane Gustav Pt II

[Gray-Wolf]

Morning all!

Is gustav having a little 'bomb' atm? Seems to have shed 20mb since I last looked.

[dellboy84]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricam%21-...e-eye-of-gustav

i dont know if this has already been posted but here it is just incase.

[Iceberg]

Morning all!

Is gustav having a little 'bomb' atm? Seems to have shed 20mb since I last looked.

No don't think so GW, The latest pressure I can find is still 956mb which is pretty much where he has been for he last 24 hrs.

Words can mean different things to different readers, but if we are talking about the track of the centre of Gustav it has not deviated from the track discussed earlier, it is not on some course towards making a direct hit on New Orleans and the closest the centre will come to the city is about 70-100 miles at landfall, after which it will be heading more WNW than NW and away from the city.

The situation remains exactly the same as discussed earlier, a glancing blow with significant storm surges and cat-1 winds for New Orleans, cat-3 near Grand Isle and perhaps inland to Houma, that may or may not prove to be too much for the levees in New Orleans and will more probably cause a lot of damage further west.

Roger I think the track takes it pretty much through Houma, this is only 45 miles from New Orleans if you take into account the 25-30 mile eye it will be pretty close. Probably 30-40 miles away from New Orleans on it's current NHC predicted path.

[Coast]

I think the track takes it pretty much through Houma

Latest (low res) from NHC would agree with that:

With regard to the levees, the Army Corps of Engineers representative said in an interview :

As Hurricane Gustav bore down Sunday on New Orleans, top officials at the Army Corps of Engineers said that despite repairs and reinforcements, the 350-mile levee system still might not be able to fully protect the city. The earth and concrete levees are stronger and higher than when Hurricane Katrina struck three years ago, but they would still be unable to resist a storm of the same size.

"It all depends on the strength of the storm, in terms of wind speed, water surge and how fast the hurricane tracks," Maj. Gen. Don T. Riley, deputy chief of the corps, said in an interview. "There are still vulnerabilities. There are gaps in the system."

If Gustav hits the city with a large surge, the levees could be too low to prevent flooding, particularly in Gentilly, St. Bernard Parish and the 9th Ward, all neighborhoods that were partially or completely flooded three years ago.

[Gray-Wolf]

I take it that it is expected before noon (local time) now. The first of the rainbands are already lashing the Parishes around N.O. with reports of waterspouts of the shore and damage occuring on the shore. The surge is also creeping in.

Power outages occuring as well.

The eye only looks 4 hours or so off shore (to my untutored eye) right now. Any advice guys (100mph gusts off the coast by Venice)?

[Calrissian]

Good morning, to all of you storm fanatics.

---

Well, having looked at the loop, all things considered, Gustav looks pretty much quite good. Usually I'd not bother - since its night, but the visual image, you can now make out what looks to be a clear and tight eye feature...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

Really impressive, and from how that looks, I guess the strong NE sector winds will be close to grand isle.

Calrissian: hello hello !

[rc28]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

A good link from a few pages back with 5 live video feeds reporting on current conditions etc. Just mute the ones you don't want to hear.

Edited September 1, 2008 by rc28

[dellboy84]

none of them work for me

[Calrissian]

Watching the live feed for WWL TV, the two hosts, do seem very positive about matters. They are very confident that the storm is weaker than they feared, and that flooding does not appear to be likely

A Cat'3 major cane on their doorstep, and they are so sure. Hmm.

Looks to me like eye is real close to grand isle, so all that low lying land will surely be covered.

Long day ahead.

Calrissian: welcome to September

[peterf]

tornado touchdown

[dellboy84]

post the link to where u got that info about the tornado?

[peterf]

post the link to where u got that info about the tornado?

i,m watching live hang on

http://www.wdsu.com/video/17347538/index.html

[liquidjp]

Radar here shows tornado activity.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...111&loop=no

[dellboy84]

thanks

[peterf]

thanks

no probs,its gripping stuff.

[dellboy84]

to right

[Iceberg]

AT 5 AM CDT...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST OR ABOUT

100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND

ABOUT 40 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.

WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A STATION IN SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA

REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 91 MPH...147 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 117

MPH...189 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

Looks to be a CAT 2 judging by the wind speeds from recon at about 90Kt.

[cartedj]

Try googling New Orleans webcams. Some good links and live feeds

http://neworleanswebsites.com/cat/en/lc/lc.html

http://www.nola.com/bridgecam/index.ssf

Saw periodic bright blue flashes in this one as the electric cables must have been shorting out.

Edited September 1, 2008 by cartedj

[kold weather]

Yep agreed Iceberg, I think come post season they will weaken this to a cat-2 at landfall but for now its still offically a cat-3 major hurricane thats about to make landfall. Thankfully the eastern eyewall has opened up which means some weakening is probably happening right now but that to be expected as the eye gets very close to land now, landfall only a matter of a couple of hours away.

Oh yeah here was my personal call early on the 29th:

"My personal call for peak strength, 931mbs, 150mph, landfall of 120mph 939mbs, landfall in St.Mary county, LA.

Plenty of scope for it to hit just about anywhere at this stage however."

Pretty pleased with that call, mac strength was 150mph, landfall offically probably 115mph.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just been watching FOX news on sky and storm is expected to hit around 9am.

[Iceberg]

WTNT52 KNHC 011156

TCEAT2

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

700 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT

85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND

ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH...108 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 86

MPH...139 KM/HR.

[Coast]

Reports of a tornado touch down for Pearlington in Hancock County, right on the State line

General conversation going on by TV meteorologists about the pulling of dry air on the Southern side of the hurricane that are tempering its effects? So far the wind damage seems low, although there is a lot of rain which I guess is the best scenario that can be expected.

Edited September 1, 2008 by Coast

[BrickFielder]

Looks like its turned west a bit and the eye may have closed up again in the last hour.

Recent Dopler Radar scan below (from NHC Site)

[Mondy]

From a few pages back - shows the motion very well.

[Neilsouth]

^ Awsome!

Weather like this is very interesting !