Major Hurricane Ike

[Iceberg]

We have official confirmation that 97L has been renamed TD 8 at 30Kt's this is looking quite good atm, with good rotation and some banding.

Taken from my previous update, this is due to really develop by ECM.

NHC should issue on it soon, but they are unserstandably busy atm.

[Iceberg]

This should be TD 9, sorry.

NHC forecast this to be a Hurricane around Day 3

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N 41.6W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 44.5W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 47.5W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N 50.5W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 68.5W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

Looks like it's very likely to be tropical storm IKE later today.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE

AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE

EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS

CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK

T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD

RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT

A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY

IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE

LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS

INTENSITY MODEL.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A

LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.

THE

DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS

BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL

MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST

TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS

FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND

VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

[Iceberg]

NHC path.

[knightstorm]

Isn't this Hanna than? Or is there another one on top of that?

[Iceberg]

This is another one on top of Hanna due to be a Hurricane Ike, on top of that we have 99L which is looking rather good as well.

Seems like a motorway for tropical cyclones atm.

[kold weather]

Certainly is, indeed Td9 will probably take a path fairly close to that of Hanna as well.

Also Dvorak numbers already upto 2.5, thats high enough for a tropical storm and as long as the deep convection near the center can hold then we should have tropical storm Ike within the next 6hrs.

[knightstorm]

Blimey this is sounding more and more like 2005, battern down the hatches until christmas I say! lol

[Somerset Squall]

TD9 looks really good right now, with persistant convection over the centre, excellent banding features and well established outflow. Environment is expected to be favourable over the next few days so I expect some fairly quick strengthening as the tropical cyclone pushes generally westwards.

[Jayces]

Certainly is, indeed Td9 will probably take a path fairly close to that of Hanna as well.

Also Dvorak numbers already upto 2.5, thats high enough for a tropical storm and as long as the deep convection near the center can hold then we should have tropical storm Ike within the next 6hrs.

My Sister in law and in laws are going to Florida (Orlando) on Thursday, with Hannah and now Ike on it's way it's not looking like a good time to be holidaying there.

From the forecasted track of Hannah does that mean on it's current path that flights into Orlando would be disrupted? I don't know where the airport is or how close Hannah will be.

[tinybill]

This is another one on top of Hanna due to be a Hurricane Ike, on top of that we have 99L which is looking rather good as well.

Seems like a motorway for tropical cyclones atm.

watching fox news early weather women on said with in the next couple hours it will be called icke poss cat 2 be near Bahamas later in the week the path is for it to enter the gulf by the weekend

[Iceberg]

Dvorak has gone up to T3.0 or 45Kt this seems high but will certainly be TS IKE in 90 mins.

[Iceberg]

He has been named TS IKE at 40Kts.

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

080901 1800 080902 0600 080902 1800 080903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.4N 40.0W 18.2N 42.6W 19.1N 45.5W 19.9N 48.4W

BAMD 17.4N 40.0W 17.9N 42.7W 18.4N 45.4W 18.9N 48.3W

BAMM 17.4N 40.0W 18.0N 42.7W 18.5N 45.5W 19.0N 48.4W

LBAR 17.4N 40.0W 17.8N 42.8W 18.5N 46.2W 19.5N 49.6W

SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 61KTS 68KTS

DSHP 40KTS 52KTS 61KTS 68KTS

[Katherine]

Can't help thinking of Ike from South Park now!

To me, this storm system will now look like forever!

** Checks in for psychiatric help **

[Paranoid]

Advisory here if anyone wants it.

000

WTNT34 KNHC 012041

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...IKE...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS OVER THE

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL

STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6

WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2250 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE

COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...40.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Fwoggie]

Initial thoughts.

1) Only 1 model forecasts Ike to take any kind of Poleward turn. This is primarily because there's a sizeable subtropical ridge forming that it's South of which I imagine will keep it down.

2) Hurricanes churn up seas badly and bring up cooler water from lower depths. It looks like it'll go through or close to the area that Hanna currently occupies. This water will be cooler and cool water as we know doesn't aid intensification much.

3) Only an outside chance of it getting to Cat 2 by Bermuda.

4) Wind shear is low at present. Dunno about further along its path.

[kold weather]

Ike looks like its slowly strengthening base don the imagery I've seen, its certainly wrapping up nicely. Conditions look decent for steady strengthening and the pace of that may increase as this gets into progressivly warmer waters and eventually an inner core starts to set-up. No reason at all that I can see why ths won't be a hurricane.

[Cookie]

blimey here we go with another one

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/imag...200809_5day.gif

Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

could make hurricane statues by tomorrow evening!

a far bit of water yet before land

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Coast]

Good agreement on another landfall hit on areas caught in the last couple of weeks including Haiti/Dominican Republic and Cuba

[Megamoonflake]

Good agreement on another landfall hit on areas caught in the last couple of weeks including Haiti/Dominican Republic and Cuba

I love hurricanes but not when one is heading straight for my mum in the Dominican Republic.

[Fwoggie]

Ike has the potential to make a bit of history. No hurricane formed in September since records began in 1851 (to 2006 at least) at the latitude Ike is at has ever managed to get as far as Cuba before settling into the standard curve Northwards.

The closest was a hurricane in 1938 that skimmed the North coast of the Bahamas before eventually dying out over Ottawa's area.

Right now, almost all models show it making a direct beeline for either the South of the Bahamas or Cuba. Cuba really can't handle another major storm at this time.

[tinybill]

my eye of the storm program has Ike heading right to Cuba at the moment

[Somerset Squall]

Ike is now at 55kts, and is expected to become a hurricane tommorrow. There is quite a lot of dry air around Ike but the storm has managed to increase it's convection around the centre after the lull today. Ike is expected to continue generally westwards into the Carribean and may end up near Cuba as a major hurricane. Worrying times ahead, especially as it looks like there is very little chance of a northwards recurve out to sea.

[Jack Wales]

The flat westward track is forecast due to the strong ridge progged to build across the W Atlantic thus blocking any poleward movement. Having said that Hannah has surprised everyone with her track in the immediate timeframe so IMO it's far to early to call a landfall for Ike on any particular country as yet. Interestingly the UK Met has forecast less ridging allowing a more nw'ward curve later in the timeframe, this has been dismissed by the NHC as an outlier but it's worth keeping an eye to see if any of the other models come on board in the next day or so.

Whatever happens, there is very little shear for Ike to contend with at the moment so it's very likely he will be a hurricane come this time tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

Ike is certainly looking the best of the three out there at the moment: