Major Hurricane Ike

[Cookie]

pure Cuba

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Jack Wales]

Ike is certainly looking the best of the three out there at the moment:

Took the words out of my mouth SS! Just been browsing the sat images and the eye appears to have formed already although it's still slightly open at the southern side.

[Typhoon John]

Is there not a chance that this storm has the potential to turn into one of those often talked about East Coast hurricanes that could bring a huge storm surge and high winds to NYC?

The storm could intensify further South over warmer water to be major hurricane. The ridge will keep it towards the East Coast and it could rapidly accelerate towards NYC which would help it keep strength before landfall. A landfall a little South of the Hudson River mouth would surely send a huge storm surge towards Manhattan and flatten the coast of Long Island. Would probably be the worst case scenario for any US landfall hurricane.

I think that's the theory but I'm not really sure whether the current conditions would allow such a hurricane to develop.

[Jack Wales]

Is there not a chance that this storm has the potential to turn into one of those often talked about East Coast hurricanes that could bring a huge storm surge and high winds to NYC?

The storm could intensify further South over warmer water to be major hurricane. The ridge will keep it towards the East Coast and it could rapidly accelerate towards NYC which would help it keep strength before landfall. A landfall a little South of the Hudson River mouth would surely send a huge storm surge towards Manhattan and flatten the coast of Long Island. Would probably be the worst case scenario for any US landfall hurricane.

I think that's the theory but I'm not really sure whether the current conditions would allow such a hurricane to develop.

Extremely unlikely as the ridge is keeping Ike on a westward track towards the Caribbean.

NYC is not immune from hurricanes although they are rare and normally weaken somewhat before landfall due to lower SST's and in some cases becoming extratropical. Whilst a storm surge in these areas would not be welcomed it would not cause damage on the same scale as New Orleans due to higher ground elevations.

[kold weather]

Actually some models are showing a weakness and i fact its only really the GFS based models like the GFDL which take Ike WSW, Nogaps takes it westwards with hint of a more WNW track by 120hrs, HWRF is suggestive of a south Florida hit, ECM gets very close to SE Florida before recurving up the coast and the UKMO is quite far north of all the rest by 120hrs but still could be a threat.

I'm not convinced by the GFDL's idea of a WSW dive into DR/Haiti right now, the ridge is strong but given how long Hanna is taking tomove on out I have a feeling it won't be able to build into the monsterous high the GFDL progs. ECM looks more pluaseable in the way it handles the high, still makes it big and strong but just not to the same extreme but still we will see what happens, needless to say right now its at 19.7N according to the best track data, that puts it already 0.1 degree north of where it should by 7am our time...

[Iceberg]

There's what looks like an eye on Ike, but I don't think the NHC concur it's an eye as this winds would be much stronger. Still CAT 3 is now progged for Ike and personally I think he will end up in the GOM again, driven there by a ridge pushed south by a larger extra-tropical Hanna.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation

And just look where the GFS spins the remnants out to :o :o :o ........first of the winter storms?

[Mondy]

Fujiwara Effect anyone? Ike and Hanna..

When the cyclones approach each other, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between the two systems. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it.

Wiki

Edited September 3, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Coast]

Still a few possible scenarios for Ike from the models today

NHC say its heading straight for Cuba again:

[knightstorm]

This is brewing up nicely!

[kold weather]

GFS recurves this once reaches the Bahamas on its 06z run, the GFDL is now pretty clsoe to being a total outlier with how far WSW it takes Ike, most models suggests whlst there will be some WSW motion possibly it won't last long and a possible weakness will eventually lift Ike up more to the WNW/NW and make it a threat tothe US.

[Iceberg]

Ike is certainly a well formed system, fantastic banding, rotation, outflow etc.

As the NHC mention it lacks the inner core to really get going atm, but this could be anytime and when it does it will very quickly go upto a hurricane IMO.

GFDL and HWRF although outliers on the track show a strong CAT 4 in the Caribbean on 5 days time.

[Cookie]

new update on ikea

Storm Alert issued at 3 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

He's getting near hurricane status now and will be today.

Latest update from NHC below sets the intensity to 60Kts, very good banding on visual.

IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN

VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO

FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING...WE MIGHT SEE AN

EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0...BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS

ARE A LITTLE LOWER...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW. IN

ANY CASE...IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE

ONE LATER TODAY. THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET

WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR

29 CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE

FIVE-DAY PERIOD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IKE

MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH

BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE

NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST

ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST

STRENGTHENING...UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST...ESCAPES THE

SHEAR...AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER

ANTILLES. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE

WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR

HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.

[tinybill]

eyes up

my eye of the storm program to-night is saying he should be in the gulf by the weekend, Hanna should hit land some were near oak island,

Josephine should not cause any problems with its coarse at the moment

[Iceberg]

Ike is doing very well looking tight and tidy, no eye visable yet (the hole on IR is a gap between bands).

ECM has an awful run hitting Miami as a Major cane (probably cat 4) and then running up the whole east coast.

[Candice]

eyes up

my eye of the storm program to-night is saying he should be in the gulf by the weekend, Hanna should hit land some were near oak island,

What eye of the storm program are u usingPls?

[kold weather]

Should be noted the best track has Ike at 65kts so it will be a hurricane next advisory.

Right now I'm favoring a Bahamas hit then a sort of recurve but close enough to brush the outer banks and then to give some good winds to the NE before slamming prehaps far NE US/Newfoundland, close to the ECM but a touch further east.

[londonsnow]

ike certainly looks organised at the moment. where he goes is unsure

[londonsnow]

latest on ike

000

WTNT34 KNHC 031442

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

1100 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 740

MILES...1190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...

FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...TAKING IKE

OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS

MIGHT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER

TODAY.

[Somerset Squall]

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080

KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30

KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT

AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY

NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE

WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO

EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE

AFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[londonsnow]

beat me to it somerset. ike is looking potentially dangerous. but where will it go?

[Fwoggie]

beat me to it somerset. ike is looking potentially dangerous. but where will it go?

Official NHC has it doing a snake impression, the centre of the track lays it 250m off the coast of the Keys in 5 days time as a low strength cat 3.

Models vary a fair bit; we'll have to wait and see how it shapes up by the end of the weekend.

[londonsnow]

Official NHC has it doing a snake impression, the centre of the track lays it 250m off the coast of the Keys in 5 days time as a low strength cat 3.

Models vary a fair bit; we'll have to wait and see how it shapes up by the end of the weekend.

its certainly one to watch

[Cookie]

not often we see somerset lost for words

Storm Alert issued at 3 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.