Major Hurricane Ike

[Calrissian]

Such a cute little thing, Ike is now a major cane.

--

Indeed, those on the Florida east coast should wake up now, and realise they might actually get a direct hit. I heard that east coast Florida hits are very rare these days, and so I can only guess the locals are very ill prepared.

Calrissian: kick the baby, don't kick the baby. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[bazookabob]

Absolutely unbelievable intensification! The Max sustained winds at 5pm ET were 80 mph, and on the latest advisory at 8 pm Et they have gone up to 115mph, making Ike a category 3! The new forecast calls for winds to be up around 110-115 knots upto 5 days ahead and the forecast track takes it very close to DR, Cuba and then Florida... certainly one to watch i'd say!

Edited September 4, 2008 by bazookabob

[Katherine]

Absolutely unbelievable intensification! The Max sustained winds at 5pm ET were 80 mph, and on the latest advisory at 8 pm ET they have gone up to 115mph, making Ike a category 3!

'ECK!!!!!!!!

Can the doctors take Ike to the medical area for a drugs/urine test please?

Jeez.......... that is some explosive strengthening!

[Megamoonflake]

Yikes......... Ike is a cat 4!

[Iceberg]

Yes quite unbeliveable a CAT 4 now. at 115Kt

He hits the 28C and off he goes I honestly don't think he will go higher as SST's just won't support it, particularly not CAT 5.

A very good eye at the moment which has cleared out and sharpened up very very quickly.

Recon is not due until tomorrow morning so the real picture will not be known until then and it's educated guess work.

I am not sure what effect the strenghtening of the hurricane will have on it's path, GFS keeps it quite weak and keeps it over water.

GFDL has a similar path but slightly more southerly with a later turn, it initialises Ike better(as a CAT 4) and makes him a CAT 5 when he reaches the warmer Caribbean waters.

IKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC. SINCE THAT

TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD

CLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE

T6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE

2045 UTC. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

AT 115 KT...MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS

WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. HOWEVER

BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO

PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS

SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN

24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE

SHIPS GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL

DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES

ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE

MODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE

LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE

WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE

MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFDL IS ON

THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND

EASTERN CUBA...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN

THESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE

HWRF...THE 12Z ECMWF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 54.1W 115 KT

12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.2W 115 KT

24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 58.7W 105 KT

36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.3N 61.0W 105 KT

48HR VT 06/0000Z 23.8N 63.6W 100 KT

72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 68.5W 100 KT

96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 72.0W 110 KT

120HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 75.5W 115 KT

[Fwoggie]

Incredible isn't it... 45 knots in 6 hours by my reckoning. Not a record, but extremely unusual to intensify that bloody quickly.

Thank god I ain't in Florida. If I was, I'd be waking up in about 5-8 hours time from now and start flapping big time.

[The PIT]

Ike's bombing along quite nicely caught quite a few by surprise.

[Iceberg]

Still looks good on IR imagery this morning after the blackout, he is also continuing to grow and expand, he is not that small.

[Coast]

I am not sure what effect the strengthening of the hurricane will have on it's path, GFS keeps it quite weak and keeps it over water.

GFDL has a similar path but slightly more southerly with a later turn, it initialises Ike better(as a CAT 4) and makes him a CAT 5 when he reaches the warmer Caribbean waters.

The models are all over the place at the moment!

[Iceberg]

Ike is getting very close to the outflow of Hanna now. This will provide more moisture (inflow for Ike is suffering a little). But will also cause more shear.

The path of Ike is very much dependent on Hanna, I don't trust the globals atm as they arn't initialising the intensity of Ike very well, they might also be over playing Hanna based on how she looks at the moment.

So I don't have a clue where Ike might hit it could be anywhere from DR through Cuba and the Bahamas to Florida, the Carolinas and newfoundland !.

[Gray-Wolf]

Does show us the potential for intensification if the right 'ingredients ' are there.

The 'proof' of Ike's pudding will be the shear predicted in the next few days. Will it's outflow somewhat negate this if it remains a major 'cane???

If so then that's one heck of a fish spinner on it's way across the pond!!!

[Iceberg]

He's been upped to 125Kt now. !, Personally I think that a little high but with a very solid CDO she might survive the shear that comes up.

ECM seems to have the best initilisation of the globals intensity wise but even this probably has him too small.

ECM still goes for a Miami CAT 4/5 hit, then a journey up the coast line.

The greatest chance has to be for a fish though at 60% or so.

The models will have a better idea in 36 hrs time though as obs from the hurricane are not entering the models at present.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH

THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE. THE LATEST

DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF

125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. IN SUCH

INTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE

EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO

PREDICT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL

SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS

LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...

AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.

LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE

AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED

TO BE FAVORABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT

IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE

INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15. THERE

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.

A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE

NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS

WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED

THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK

TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE

HURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE

OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS

TRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE

WESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST. THE OFFICIAL

TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE

ECMWF. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS

STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY

THIS HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT

12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT

24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT

36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT

48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT

72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT

96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT

[Katherine]

He's been upped to 125Kt now. !

** passes out **

[Iceberg]

I forgot to attach the ECM (idiot me ! )

[kold weather]

Wow pretty amazing strengthening, yet another display of boming there!

Anyway right now I think the 125kts is a little high again, ther eis just the first hints of NW shear probably from Hanna's outflow being streamed towards the system as the upper high builds in to the NW, the same feature that will shunt Ike possibly towards the W/WSW, I'd probably say 120kts but on a weakening trend so it could be down to 115kts by the next advisory.

Still whilst I was expectinmg possibly a major by this time no way was I expecting a pretty high end cat-4!

As for track I'm currently in favor of the ECM, GFS and the UKMO both too northerly in motion and both under-estimate Ike's strength, out of the global models ECM has by far the best idea of Ike's probable strength. This is key because the high is stronger at the upper levels then the lower levels and a strongg hurricane is more dictated too by the upper levels. Thats why the ECM as well as the hurricane models like the GFDL show this heading WSW for some time as they both have a far more realistic strength for Ike...

However I really can't say what Ike will do, I think its odds on to be a major threat to the Bahamas, after that there is about 24hrs of uncertianty whereit could either recurve out to sea or slam into S.florida and recurve up the coast, its a really tough call!

Edited September 4, 2008 by kold weather

[dellboy84]

ike has surprised us all - i cant believe that when gustav hit they were 3 more possible hurricanes behind it - ike could be deadly but lets not forget josephine behind ike - a very active week to come i would say.

Edited September 4, 2008 by dellboy84

[Iceberg]

GFDL is sticking to it's guns and places Ike as a CAT 4 off the coast of Haiti and Cuba before curving NW.

GFS 06Z again failed to initialise Ike very well at all.

[Iceberg]

Ike is still doing well, the eye has regained some composure compared to earlier and it's now looking like a CAT 4 again.

Shear is impacting the NW but this seems to have eased recently.

Outflow is still very good away from the shear.

[Mondy]

Very nice. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo...ast_enhanced+12

Hanna is impacting Ike.

[Iceberg]

It's just been dropped to only 120Kt !, other than that it pretty much concludes what we've been talking about today.

IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD

TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW

ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A

LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT. GLOBAL

MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS

PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...INNER-

CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.

IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME

STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK

OF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS

IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

[londonsnow]

yes ike has apparantly weakened, but only a smidge. its incredible how this one has intensified. i suspect the noaa were a little surprised themselves. the question is still where will she go. will ike do a tina turner and head back out into the atlantic or make island or floridafall? nobody knows at this stage

[dellboy84]

i dont know about anyone else but i think this could be the first cat 5 of the season - not yet but its going to happen.

[Paranoid]

It's a possibility. If it makes it into the NW Carribean or the Gulf then the chances of that happening are greatly increased. It's just a matter of how much effect Hanna has on him, the conditions between his current posistion and the GOM/Carribean, and any possible land interatction with Cuba, Hispaniola or Florida. Too early to tell with any certainty at this point, we may have a better idea in about 72 hours.

[Fwoggie]

The worst case scenario would be a cat 5 hit on FL, then passing back out into the GOM...

Incidentally, NASA don't seem that bothered about Ike; Hanna is considered to be out of the way so they've decided to park Atlantis on the launch pad. Right now they're about 2/3 of the way there along the road the launch pad gets driven along. 2 hours left before arrival at the launch tower. To yank it back in would take 6 hours. Seems like a very odd decision to me but hey. All they were worried about was Hanna...

Atlantis is scheduled to launch on 8th Oct for the last servicing trip to Hubble; 34 days from now.

[tinybill]

at the moment the main problem will be Ike at the moment its heading right for Florida land fall at the moment looks like some were near Melbourne then on to Orlando, some time next week as a possible CAT 4-5 about Wednesday, Hanna heading for land fall some were near oak island

Edited September 4, 2008 by tinybill