Major Hurricane Ike

[Hurricane Debby]

Courtesy of Hurricane Track........

UPDATED: 1:35 pm EDT, September 4, 2008

HANNA TRYING TO DEVELOP DEEP THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CENTER AS IKE LOOMS LARGE (BUT SMALL)

Take a look at the latest satellite image of Hanna here. Notice the oranges and reds and how they are not well out along the edges of the circulation. This is a sign that Hanna is trying to fight off the dry air being injected in to it by an upper level low in close proximity. If this trend continues, and we see these deep thunderstorms begin to wrap around Hanna, then we just may see it try to become a hurricane. Modern satellite technology allows this kind of "watching the pot boil" which is great since we can almost never be caught by surprise. As these deep thunderstorms develop, and assuming they persist, it will be interesting to see what aircraft recon finds when they fly in this afternoon. Of course, all of the convection could simply die away and leave Hanna weak, broad and without a central core of strong winds. We shall see. The forecast has not changed much and people along the Carolina coast north to New England need to be ready for rough weather this weekend. How rough will be up to how well organized Hanna becomes over the next 24 hours.

Ike is small in size but has big implications on the weather next week. Latest computer model info tells us that Ike could come a bit farther west than indicated on previous runs. Remember that Bermuda High we talked about a lot lately? Well, it is all up to that weather system, more or less, in terms of where Ike steers and when. People in the Turks, Caicos and southern Bahamas really need to pay close attention to Ike's progress. It is a dangerous category four hurricane now and will hopefully weaken as it encounters strong upper level winds. Once Hanna clears the pattern in a few days, Ike could be left with favorable conditions to re-intensify although water temps could be down enough in the wake of Hanna to keep Ike from becoming too intense. As usual, we will just have to wait and see how things play out. The atmosphere is complex and we are mere humans with number-crunching machines trying to figure it all out. I will post more here early this evening.

[Iceberg]

Ike is still not doing too badly.

Outflow has increased markedly in the NW quad, however shear is really cutting back on the convection(the time of day doesn't help either). Banding is still good though and the eye is looking fantastic. Given a bit of a diurnal pep up tomorrow morning this could be looking very good indeed. If that's the case then Ike has fared well with it's first 24 hrs of quite severe shear.

[Iceberg]

A quick track check up. The models have moved considerably westwards, the likelyhood of this fishing now is very much reduced. The best tracks so far IMO, GFDL and ECM show a GOM Hurricane again.

ECM shows yet another Katrina/Gustav Hit (mother of all storms II) probably as a 4 or 5 on approach.

The likelyhood has therefore shifted to either a Cuba or Florida first strike.

Forgot to say.

NOAA WP-3'S WILL BEGIN RESEARCH

MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING 05/0800Z.

Should be interesting.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70

A. 05/1800Z

B. AFXXX 0209A IKE

C. 05/1530Z

D. 24.0N 62.6W

E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[kold weather]

Yep Iceberg, as I said I didn't believe the ideas of a recurve to the extent the GFS was showing, firstly because Hanna has really gone down the drain and therefore any weakness left is less and secondly the GFS has a habit of overdoing weakness outside of 96hrs. Models are shifting wwestwards, the ECM may be slightly too far south in that it takes a totyally unrealisitc secondary jog into Cuba between 72-96hrs, if it didn't do that S.Florida would be hammered, much like the UKMO. The models starting to suggest the ridge may remain stronger then progged but we shall have to wait and see...

Either way unless this plunges into Cuba the Bahamas are going to get hit hard, Cuba seem to be back into the game and Florida was always in it!

Ike holding steady in my eyes, probably about 120kts though there is data from Dvorak this may be upto 125kts, its upto the NHC to decide, either still a monster cat-4. Shear still present as well from the NW though its only weak.

[Jayces]

at the moment the main problem will be Ike at the moment its heading right for Florida land fall at the moment looks like some were near Melbourne then on to Orlando, some time next week as a possible CAT 4-5 about Wednesday, Hanna heading for land fall some were near oak island

Like all weather a lot can change between now and then. A few days ago I had my inlaws worried that they would be landing in Orlando today in the middle of a hurricane, now 2 days later and Hannah is a tropical storm nowhere near Orlando.

Just goes to show how hard these things are to track. I wouldn't be suprised if Ike swings around in a big circle and ends up in England!

[Cookie]

just playing catch up again, blimey I did see it intensity so fast! Its amazing how fast things can change!

new update

Storm Alert issued at 4 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

Models still shifting southwards, the GFDL has landfall in Cuba and sends it quite deep into Cuba before lifting NW around 965mbs, model ending with Ike heading NW at 963mbs, HWRF also skims the Cuban coastline before lifting out, suggesting a massive hit to the Keys...

Tracks from the HWRF looks shockingly close to Donna 1960...

[Iceberg]

None of the GM's now keep him out at sea, this can't be discounted but it must be a small chance now. Instead either a Cuba or Florida hit is odds on. NHC are going for a high end CAT 3 just south of Miami if 5 days time. Both meto and GFS go for a Florida hit as well, GFDL goes for a Cuba hit then takes him south of Cuba and then a second Cuba hit.

This is still a while off though and while a CAT 3,4 or 5 landstrike is very likely at the moment Ike is suffering under Shear. Outflow is very limited and the eye is getting close to being exposed. There are another 24-48 hrs of this hostile environment to go.

[Coast]

Most models going for a hit on Southern Florida, NGPS say its heading out of harms way and GFDL say its going to rip right through Cuba. After all that Cuba has been through in the past two weeks, that would be the worst scenario.

[Iceberg]

Ike looking better again under recent Sat.

NHC are now going on a CAT 4 South Florida hit and mention that the shear is likely to ease up in 24 hrs.

IKE is also now a CAT 3 but recon is due in today and we can finally find out for sure.

ECM has a glancing but very bad blow for Cuba then a hit on the southern states.

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS

OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME

DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY

SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT

DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO

BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE

NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.

GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE

REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN

FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS

3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA.

MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH

THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER

JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.

SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96

HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND

IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY

REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS

OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

GFS has fallen inline with the more southerly models, now takes it through the Florida Straights and into the gulf, very much like the ECM but keeps it away from the Cuban coast.

In the shorter term this looking like being a very dangerous major hurricane going through the Bahamas region.

As for strength, inded Ike is being sheared right now and thats gotten a little stronger in the last 12hrs but should start to ease down after it gets more under the highs circulation as its on the SE side right now of the high thus there is shear as a jet streak comes round the eastern side from the N/NE. Once past this conditions improve again and there is no reason at all that Ike shouldn't strengthen. Long term strength totally depends on where it tracks, if it goes into Cuba like the GFDL wants it'll ruin its inner core to some degree but it'll have more time then Gustav did to sort itself out over the warm waters and a further west track takes it towards the loop current, if it hits south Florida then there is no reason not to expect a cat-4/5 hit sadly...

[Iceberg]

Ike is suffering more from Shear, which is set to bring him down to CAT 1 or CAT 2 before it eases off(there is good agreement from both HWRF and GFDL for this).

Afterwards there is equally good agreement on quick intensification back up to a CAT 4 again. HWRF follows the NHC track very closely and also delivers a CAT 4 hit on Southern Florida, before a re-entry into the GOM.

GFDL follows the ECM route to a certain degree and allows a CAT 4 hit on Cuba. and then re-entry into the GOM.

GFS has now come on board with the ECM and the southerly route, however it still does not handle Ike very well at all.

All models realistically show a GOM hurricane in the future.

[Iceberg]

NHC has it threading the gap between Cuba and Florida now staying over water. Not bad if it can do it.

NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES

SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE

CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT

SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH

SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND

THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN

A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A

DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT

FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN

BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO

THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS

UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN

A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND

CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND

GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW

STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE

FOR DAYS TO COME.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT

260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO

BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE

OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY

WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN

THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS

THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL

MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY

SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE

UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL

MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING

WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED

SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS

CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE

MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT

FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 62.7W 105 KT

12HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W 95 KT

24HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W 90 KT

36HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W 95 KT

48HR VT 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W 105 KT

72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT

96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT

120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W 100 KT

[Cookie]

new update!

Storm Alert issued at 5 Sep, 2008 15:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

Ike is doing rather well considering the poor appearance and very strong shear.

Pressure now found down to 953mb

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008

Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 17:10:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°05'N 63°12'W (23.0833N 63.2W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 372 miles (599 km) to the NNE (30°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,751m (9,026ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 94kts (From the WNW at ~ 108.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (212°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:07:20Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:16:00Z

[MAF]

latest sat image

courtesy NOAA

[Fwoggie]

Latest NHC shows average path threading the needle between Cuba and the Keys and heading NW in the general direction of New Orleans. On the one hand, > 3 day predictions are notoriously unreliable. On the other hand, NHC has been impressive this year with > 3 day predictions. If I was in the N Gulf of Mexico, I'd be getting a) worried depressed. Particularly given that strengthening is expected late day 3 onwards, possibly rapid.

If the ridge around Florida holds, it'll keep the hurricane going more Westerly, which would at least spare New Orleans and the 150 miles each side of it. Official forecasts suggest that ridge will weaken, hence the trend to a NW direction.

Here's hoping they're off, for the sake of the New Orleanians. I imagine the MS, LA, AL and TX governors must be starting to get a bit twitchy.

[MAF]

advisory #19A

From NOAA

...THE EYE OF IKE REAPPEARS...STILL HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...

510 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 420

MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A

MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND

TOMORROW...WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON

THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY

SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS

THE BAHAMAS.

full text here >http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052359.shtml

[Iceberg]

Recon are back into Ike again and show I think a CAT 2 storm. Flight winds of 97Kts have been recorded which would be 85Kt or so Pressure is also up but this is all to be expected considering the hostile environment, which should start easing today allowing Ike to strengthen again.

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008

Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 17:10:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°05'N 63°12'W (23.0833N 63.2W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 372 miles (599 km) to the NNE (30°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,751m (9,026ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 94kts (From the WNW at ~ 108.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (212°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:07:20Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:16:00ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008

Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 17:10:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°05'N 63°12'W (23.0833N 63.2W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 372 miles (599 km) to the NNE (30°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,751m (9,026ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (210°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 94kts (From the WNW at ~ 108.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (212°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:07:20Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:16:00Z

[londonsnow]

Its difficult to know where ike will end up once it enters the gulf. an interaction with cuba and other islands will no doubt weaken it, but this is a powerful storm, and a dangerous one. i hope it doesnt hit new orleans, they've had enough, but it will hit somewhere. my guess the panhandle. but its still too far off to make any realistic judgement.

[Iceberg]

It doesn't seem to bad with a closed eye wall, reasonable temp difference and flight winds of 104Kt makes it a top end CAT 2 IMO pressure support that as well.

The eye is now becoming clearer and shear seems to be easing as forecast.

Ike is not a big storm at the moment.

As to track anything from Florida to Texas Cuba to Jamaica is still possible with a wide difference between the tropicals and the globals.

A. 06/06:55:20Z

B. 22 deg 25 min N

066 deg 34 min W

C. 700 mb 2773 m

D. 83 kt

E. 325 deg 26 nm

F. 058 deg 104 kt

G. 325 deg 024 nm

H. 963 mb

I. 10 C/ 3052 m

J. 14 C/ 3052 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C24

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF307 0209A IKE OB 08

MAX FL WIND 104 KT NW QUAD 06:48:20 Z

MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 326 / 16NM JUST INSIDE NW EYEWALL

JAGGED EYEWALL EDGE WITH FEW BREAKS

[tinybill]

ike surrly not heading to new orleans is it!!!

Edited September 6, 2008 by tinybill

[Fwoggie]

ike surrly not heading to new orleans is it!!!

The thought had crossed my mind. I'd imagine it's also crossed the minds of Nagin (NO Mayor) too...

[Iceberg]

I think it might be... There is alot more agreement from the 06Z models for Ike to Skim Cuba and then turn northwards, the big problem is that they then slow him right down, allowing him to feed in the GOM before slowly advancing on NO, Mobile etc.

Atm Ike is looking very very good, Shear is now completely relaxed, outflow, inflow, banding, convection within the CDO etc all all looking good, Ike is tightening up.

The eye is still ragged but shape should come to it later today, visable on WV.

I think there is every chance of him re-gaining CAT 4 status before Cuba (not good for Cuba), and dumping serious rainfall on Haiti (devastating for them).

[Iceberg]

He is indeed intensifying recon has just found 121Kt flight winds, the eye is also becoming better defined.

The path is just south of the current NHC projection. Pressure is also falling.

min pressure to 955 with a distinct eye with a strong eye wall found. Pressure should start to drop this afternoon.