Major Hurricane Ike

[kold weather]

Amazingly the NHC downgrades Ike to a cat-2 whilst multiple 115-120kts are found at flight level supporting a good strong cat-3...

NHC downgraded it before recon of course but that was a stupid move, I'm rarely as harsh on the NHC but they've made a rather stupid mistake there in believeing the Dvorak numbers rather then holding 100kts and waiting to see if recon confirms Dvorak, which it doesn't in this case!

[Jayces]

Waht's the betting that if it does turn out to be a New Orleans strike that less people evacuate this time citing Gustav not being as bad as expected?

[londonsnow]

ike will in my opinion be the hurricane of the season at this stage. depends on his track across cuba, but if he's still solid out of cuba then we are looking towards cat 4/5 in the gulf. maybe 3 at landfall. whether it hits new orleans is up in the air, but there are a lot of people in towns outside new orleans who will be concerned about ike

[Katherine]

Whoever supplies FOX News with info has just given a Cat 3 estimate for Ike in the GOM.

[Mondy]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 06/1415Z

B. 21 DEG 48 MIN N

68 DEG 16 MIN W

C. NA

D. 85 KT

E. 310 DEG 13 NM

F. 025 DEG 125 KT

G. 310 DEG 15 NM

H. 953 MB

I. 16 C/2413 M

J. 17 C/2669 M

K. 16 C/NA

L. OPEN W

M. E35/25/20

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA2 0309A IKE OB 08 AL092008

MAX FL WIND 125 KTS NW QUAD 1412Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 95 KTS SE QUAD 1418Z

EYE OPEN W-SW

TURBULENT NW QUAD DRY AIR INTRUSION

953mb with an OPEN Eye...jeez

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...relative_0.html

Turks and Caicos lined up

Edited September 6, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Iceberg]

I agree Kold, they seemed to write this an hour before they published it. Ike is clearly at 110Kt with a nice eye forming/formed even if it is slightly open the fact that there is no pressure leak is indicative of close banding.

The 110Kt is more than they estimate Ike intensifying before landfall.

[Gray-Wolf]

Waht's the betting that if it does turn out to be a New Orleans strike that less people evacuate this time citing Gustav not being as bad as expected?

I suppose 'evacuating' is not a cheap option for many either (those with cars and a wish to 'hole up' in a motel) so amongst the storm fatigue there must also be financial limitations..........many of those with cars would not fancy embracing the 'free' buses and evac centres for their families........

[Fwoggie]

I suppose 'evacuating' is not a cheap option for many either (those with cars and a wish to 'hole up' in a motel) so amongst the storm fatigue there must also be financial limitations..........many of those with cars would not fancy embracing the 'free' buses and evac centres for their families........

MM. The joys of personal pride. Assuming Ike does make a bee line for NO, it will depend on how strong it is as to how many leave again. Hopefully very few will point to Nagin crying wolf and ignore it. When Nagin called it the mother of all storms it looked like it would be. It was forecast to be a high cat 4 low cat 5, but crucially forecast with storm surges of 22 feet at that moment in time. As a reminder, the highest storm surge recorded during Katrina was 11.5 feet in the NO region. Biloxi got 14 foot - probably due to being in the NE quadrant of NO at landfall though I couldn't say for sure.

Winds in a cat 4 storm are serious indeed. Just ask the Far North Queenslanders when Larry arrived at high cat 4/low cat 5. It pretty much flattened billions of dollars of sugar cane and banana plantations and destroyed 90% of Innisfail - a town of 12,000 people. However, a storm surge is far more serious. Katrina demonstrates that.

[Cookie]

new update.

storm Alert issued at 6 Sep, 2008 15:00 GMT

Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[londonsnow]

so ike is back up to cat 3. doesnt surprise me with the decrease in shear. very worrying storm this one

[MAF]

so ike is back up to cat 3. doesnt surprise me with the decrease in shear. very worrying storm this one

NOAA advisory #22A

...IKE REGAINS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE STRENGTH...

[bazookabob]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

Im no expert but the convection really seems to shoot up on the east side of the storm in the last couple of frames of this loop... could be a sign of Ike intensifying again perhaps?

[kold weather]

Ike was likely never a two in the first place given the data, something that wil lbe corrected post season no doubt.

Anyway Ike now at 115kts according to the 18z set of models, which makes sense given recon has been finding lots of winds to support 110-115kts today.

As for Cuba, its going to badly damage Ike, make no doubt about it this will probably be TS Ike once its in the gulf (I'll guess around 45kts) but after that conditions look bvery good for restrengthening, indeed despite thinking it'll exit as a TS, do not be at all surprised to see this getting at least as strong as Gustav was when it made landfall at 110mph...

[Cookie]

thanks for the update Kold

[Mondy]

I'll quote you on this

As for Cuba, its going to badly damage Ike, make no doubt about it this will probably be TS Ike once its in the gulf (I'll guess around 45kts) but after that conditions look bvery good for restrengthening, indeed despite thinking it'll exit as a TS, do not be at all surprised to see this getting at least as strong as Gustav was when it made landfall at 110mph...

[SMU]

Ike was likely never a two in the first place given the data, something that wil lbe corrected post season no doubt.

Anyway Ike now at 115kts according to the 18z set of models, which makes sense given recon has been finding lots of winds to support 110-115kts today.

As for Cuba, its going to badly damage Ike, make no doubt about it this will probably be TS Ike once its in the gulf (I'll guess around 45kts) but after that conditions look bvery good for restrengthening, indeed despite thinking it'll exit as a TS, do not be at all surprised to see this getting at least as strong as Gustav was when it made landfall at 110mph...

Only if it runs the spine of cuba- remember Hurricanes dont always follow the upper level steering patterns when interacting with land-

If it doesrun the spine then yes the inner core will be disrupted /7 like Gustav it will struggle to regain any form of solid intensity-

Bazooker bob- Convection is firing which is good, look for the convection within the CDO to surround the eye-

Also look at the earlier VDM message ( I&J) the thermal gradient across the 2 was a mere 1c- now on the latest its up to 5c-

As soon as we get a closed wave & that convection surrounds the core then we could head on down towards 940 MB & possibly lower......

I WOULDNT WANT TO BE THE PERSON WHO HAS TO BREAK THE NEWS TO THE MAYOR OF NO THAT THE ECMWF HAS ALMOST A DIRECT HIT @144-

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...;!chart.gif

S

Edited September 6, 2008 by Steve Murr

[MAF]

Steve, i just wouldnt like to be the Mayor of N.O

reckon they will be glad when this season comes to an end.

[Paranoid]

WTNT34 KNHC 062044

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH

WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED

A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT

ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE

CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...

CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED

ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE

NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN

PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS

TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH

FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM

...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS

FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND

THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF

EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS

IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF

THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST

UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES

COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12

INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES

POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[SMU]

images courtesy of Calamity on EAUS-

http://i33.tinypic.com/2dmateuxk.gif

Motion appears to be WNW not W or WSW-!!!!!!!

S

[bazookabob]

Unbelievable intensification for the second time! upto 135mph, up 20mph in 3 hours... I wouldn't wanna be in cuba right now! Well maybe with my video camera in a very sturdy building!

[Iceberg]

Pressure of 948mb and 129Kt flight winds. a Solid CAT 4. When the eye clears out this could make a 5.

[kold weather]

I'll quote you on this

Well as Steve sayd totally dependant on it running the spine of Cuba, not sure it wil ldo that yet. I fully suspect we wil lbe looking at something hitting Cuba near the strength of Gustav when it hit western Cuba.

Strengthening isn't as impressive as people think, this was NEVER a cat-2, thats one of the worst calls I've seen from the NHC this season bar maybe when Gustav was bombing SE of Haiti...

Steve, I think you may be getting taken in by the expansion of the eye northwards as the latest convective burst eases off from the northern eyewall, i'm seeing a 260 type motion still though it does seem to have eased off the foward gas just recently. Recon fixes agree with that idea as well.

Edited September 6, 2008 by kold weather

[SMU]

Well as Steve sayd totally dependant on it running the spine of Cuba, not sure it wil ldo that yet. I fully suspect we wil lbe looking at something hitting Cuba near the strength of Gustav when it hit western Cuba.

Strengthening isn't as impressive as people think, this was NEVER a cat-2, thats one of the worst calls I've seen from the NHC this season bar maybe when Gustav was bombing SE of Haiti...

Steve, I think you may be getting taken in by the expansion of the eye northwards as the latest convective burst eases off from the northern eyewall, i'm seeing a 260 type motion still though it does seem to have eased off the foward gas just recently. Recon fixes agree with that idea as well.

yes- Motion should be between 250 & 280-

Could do with a VDM fix-

S

[MAF]

discussion #23

courtesy NOAA

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE

INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED. THE PLANE

REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129

KT. ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE

NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED

ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. WITH

THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE

FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL

IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS

ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A

SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE

CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME

RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

full text here > http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/062044.shtml

and latest advisory reports Cat 4 on S-S scale

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS

IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

yes- Motion should be between 250 & 280- Could do with a VDM fix- S

latest VDM from NOAA. not sure if it's for Ike though Steve

000

URNT12 KNHC 062124

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 06/21:05:40Z

B. 21 deg 31 min N

069 deg 31 min W

C. 700 mb 2658 m

D. 111 kt

E. 320 deg 016 nm

F. 054 deg 112 kt

G. 320 deg 020 nm

H. 949 mb

I. 12 C/ 3055 m

J. 17 C/ 3044 m

K. 5 C/ NA

L. OPEN NNE

M. C28

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 0409A IKE OB 15

MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 19:12:30 Z

EYEWALL NEARLY CLOSED

[SMU]

.

latest VDM from NOAA. not sure if it's for Ike though Steve :lol:

000

URNT12 KNHC 062124

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

B. 21 deg 31 min N

069 deg 31 min W

It will be IKE-

Latest-

B. 21 deg 31 min N

069 deg 31 min W

Last-

B. 21 DEG 48 MIN N

68 DEG 16 MIN W

Still heading south of 270 Degrees- ONLY JUST though-

Awaiting the next VDM-

S

Edited September 6, 2008 by Steve Murr