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Major Hurricane Ike


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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

new update, not long till turks gets ike

Storm Alert issued at 6 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Cuba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

Camaguey (21.4 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Erdington
  • Location: Erdington

Winds gusting to storm force now in T&C's.

Some amateur observers on other boards are speculating about a slight wobble to NW. If it does, it'll skim Cuba rather than hit it, and that would mean it would keep its intensification as it heads NW into the GOM... :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Winds gusting to storm force now in T&C's. Some amateur observers on other boards are speculating about a slight wobble to NW. If it does, it'll skim Cuba rather than hit it, and that would mean it would keep its intensification as it heads NW into the GOM... :lol:
yep, all the conditions in the Gulf are there for it to gain strength from the warmth of the water it will pass over, and if it misses land completely then the possibilities of it getting close to a 5 are strong
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Posted
  • Location: Erdington
  • Location: Erdington
what the size like compared to gustov?

I'm trying to find diameter data for Gustav, currently failing.

Side note: The remnants of Hanna look like they're going to give you a good chance of breaking your 2008 gust record :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
I'm trying to find diameter data for Gustav, currently failing.

Side note: The remnants of Hanna look like they're going to give you a good chance of breaking your 2008 gust record :-)

yup hopefully :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

TS Hanna approaches NYC while Ike (cat-4) passes Haiti and aims for north central Cuba, then on to the Gulf ... oh brother, just what Mayor Ray Nagin didn't want to see, another one heading his way perhaps?

www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

One interesting obs, in the warm sector of Hanna (which is already in extratropical transition) the buoy at 39 N 71 W reported water and air temps of 28 C. The water temp is about 3-4 above normal. Water temps are also very warm in the Gulf of Maine relative to normal, close to 20 C instead of the usual 15 C.

Hanna will cross the Atlantic and bring strong SW winds to Ireland and Scotland by late Wednesday and Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

well with those above normal water temps, it no wonder these storms are not dissipating very easily. i dont know which is worse. Ike crossing Cuba and loosing strength, but causing havoc in Cuba, or it missing land and carries on into the GoM gaining more strength over the warm waters and slamming into mainland US

Eye starting to clear out:
even clearer now. taken 30 minutes ago

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rgb-l.jpg

Edited by Mick
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The models are starting to settle down a little and take Ike on a long journey causing alot of problems for Cuba.

From here he is set to slow down and gorge himself before hitting Texas somewhere betwen Corpus Christi and Galveston IMO. The intensity and size of Gustav by then will be devastating to the oil industry. But this will pale compared to the effects over Cuba.... : (

IMO New Orleans is safe.

I'll update on her intensity in a bit as recon have just entered him and found early TS winds.

I would say I think he might be a Cat 5.....

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 07/06:25:50Z

B. 21 deg 09 min N

071 deg 37 min W

C. 700 mb 2624 m

D. 86 kt

E. 116 deg 012 nm

F. 213 deg 105 kt

G. 116 deg 012 nm

H. 947 mb

I. 11 C/ 3048 m

J. 16 C/ 3049 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C23

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF307 0709A IKE OB 05

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 06:31:30Z

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Yep it would only support CAT 3 at 105Kt or so. still awaiting post eclipse imagery so it's difficult to see what condition he's in. They are also just about to recon the stronger NE quad.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

this morning its looks like hes heading for Texas

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

thanks delta-x ray hes got a great eye

post-4629-1220773239_thumb.png

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

120Kt found in the NE quad so IMO this is still a CAT 3. at 110Kt surface.

Got it wrong with a CAT 5 but thought he would have intensified more.

075830 2117N 07148W 6963 02758 9598 +103 +060 138099 111 097 012 00

075900 2118N 07147W 6973 02775 9646 +091 +060 138119 120 093 016 00

075930 2119N 07146W 6974 02815 9692 +086 +060 139115 116 091 014 00

080000 2120N 07144W 6960 02861 9719 +091 +060 137113 114 087 008 00

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

He's really struggling for convection at the moment, this could be due to shear which seems to be effects the north of the storm a little or due to well mixed up cooler waters as Hanna set in this area for a number of days.

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

NOAA states its a cat 4? take it this is true! looks a mean one!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

um... they do, can't say it really makes sense as recon have been all over the storm in recent hours and not recorded anything that would keep it at 115Kt. Still they are the expects.

THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE

PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE

TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF

975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM

THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY

REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF

121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//

If you run the graphic's you'll see that more models are putting Ike in a final position that will have an impact on the S. Louisiana coastline and 're-test' those dykes on industrial St. (they took a bit of 'slosh' over with Gus so are they weakened???).

From looking at the runs it would seem that a small deviation in the exit path from Cuba leads to a large spread of possible landfalls. All in all the next 24hrs will leave us with a better take on things..........you never know, a slight deviation and he'll 'thread the needle' between Cuba and Florida and so enter the Gulf unmolested!!!.......with a landfall further east than the NOAA are guessing at :unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

They will keep it at 115kts for a little longer in case winds are found that justifies it, remember how rash they were downgrading it yesterday to a 2 when in fact all along it had winds easily supporting 3...

As for track I think main target zones sadly the same as they were for Gustav. The 06z GFS has moved back east and I think the ECM is too far west as its taking too long to swing the upper trough by, thats a common bias of the ECM model.

Anyway models trending a touch north for Cuba, now suggesting it'll be fairly close to the coast, enough so that whilst it will weaken it could still draw some moisture from the Atlantic. Still unless it gets back into the water I think this will probably weaken to a TS unless it does get itself over the water for any amount of time, its possible.

As for the future track over the gulf, even if this weakens massivly over Cuba I'm still expecting a 3, heat content in the northern gulf is rubbish but conditions are easily good enough for a major hurricane again and importantly its got the time, Gustav had both poor upper conditions and importantly only about 24-36hrs over the gulf waters and that simply wasn't enough given the upper conditions.

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They will keep it at 115kts for a little longer in case winds are found that justifies it, remember how rash they were downgrading it yesterday to a 2 when in fact all along it had winds easily supporting 3...

As for track I think main target zones sadly the same as they were for Gustav. The 06z GFS has moved back east and I think the ECM is too far west as its taking too long to swing the upper trough by, thats a common bias of the ECM model.

Anyway models trending a touch north for Cuba, now suggesting it'll be fairly close to the coast, enough so that whilst it will weaken it could still draw some moisture from the Atlantic. Still unless it gets back into the water I think this will probably weaken to a TS unless it does get itself over the water for any amount of time, its possible.

Hey Kold- look at the last 2 frames-

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Looks like a jog more SW-

At this rate it will cross cuba & end up on the same track as GUS!!!!

S

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