Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[carinthian]

Evening,

Autumn seasons sees the twighlight zone start on 21st September, before total darkness descends in Arctic a month later. Hard to belief 40 winters ago , Greenland and Iceland were linked by the polar ice sheet in the Februarys of 1968 and 69 providing uncomfortable easy access for polar bears to renew acquintance with Iceland after 50 years absence. Nowadays, according to some reports the polar cap is almost island in the summer months. However, the situation can change within a couple of decades. By the spring of 1976, the polar ice sheet retreated back to its lowest level on record.

C

[carinthian]

Evening,

Autumn seasons sees the twighlight zone start on 21st September, before total darkness descends in Arctic a month later. Hard to belief 40 winters ago , Greenland and Iceland were linked by the polar ice sheet in the Februarys of 1968 and 69 providing uncomfortable easy access for polar bears to renew acquintance with Iceland after 50 years absence. Nowadays, according to some reports the polar cap is almost island in the summer months. However, the situation can change within a couple of decades. By the spring of 1976, the polar ice sheet retreated back to its lowest level on record.

C

Morning all,

Just for interest the sea ice chart for 8th April 1968, shows the most southerly extent of polar ice edge since coastal guard observation started logging. That chart would send "global warming theorist into reverse ". Ice cap heading towards Scotland ! At the time, there was talk of little ice age returning during the cold decade of the 60s, only to be followed by a fast retreat of Spring ice extent by the mid 1970s. However, just shows how the situation can change quickly.

C

[Polar Continental]

Morning all,

Just for interest the sea ice chart for 8th April 1968, shows the most southerly extent of polar ice edge since coastal guard observation started logging. That chart would send "global warming theorist into reverse ". Ice cap heading towards Scotland ! At the time, there was talk of little ice age returning during the cold decade of the 60s, only to be followed by a fast retreat of Spring ice extent by the mid 1970s. However, just shows how the situation can change quickly.

C

Thanks carinthian,

Very interesting, it does make you wonder what caused the ice to extend so far south during that period, only to suddenly retreat again.

As you say it just goes to show how quickly things can change.

Paul

[Jack Wales]

Intriguing to see how far south the ice extended in 1968 with the entire north of Iceland locked in with ice, I bet that made any northwesterlies quite potent in Iceland during this time. Sadly it will take something special to bring about a repeat of such events any time soon, especially now that we appear to be heading towards last years minima...

[carinthian]

Intriguing to see how far south the ice extended in 1968 with the entire north of Iceland locked in with ice, I bet that made any northwesterlies quite potent in Iceland during this time. Sadly it will take something special to bring about a repeat of such events any time soon, especially now that we appear to be heading towards last years minima...

Hi Jack,

Northwesterlies were very potent towards the end of the 60s in the British Isles, particulary in the winter of 1969, with polar low activity producing some memorable snowfalls in the February of that winter.

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Intriguing to see how far south the ice extended in 1968 with the entire north of Iceland locked in with ice, I bet that made any northwesterlies quite potent in Iceland during this time. Sadly it will take something special to bring about a repeat of such events any time soon, especially now that we appear to be heading towards last years minima...

[image]

This also coincided with a notably potent northerly in early April 1968 over Britain with maxima, despite sunshine in between the showers, widely held back at around 3C- it takes a very potent northerly these days for that to happen in early March! Then in February 1969, one of the northerlies brought a maximum of -2.7 at Lancaster despite bright sunshine- even the most potent of easterlies struggle to manage that.

The snowiness of winter 1968/69, and also the surrounding ones of 1967/68 and 1969/70, seem to have been assisted by an unusually high frequency of northerly and north-westerly winds- perhaps contributing to the ice extension?

Yes, there is something of a warm pool heading into the Arctic Circle at the moment that will take a while to shift, which will add to the above-average water extent and SSTs and thin first year ice issues. Last year's minimum is back to being under threat it would seem.

[carinthian]

Thanks carinthian,

Very interesting, it does make you wonder what caused the ice to extend so far south during that period, only to suddenly retreat again.

As you say it just goes to show how quickly things can change.

Paul

Hello Paul,

I am not sure what the trigger was. Certainly in the UK and much of Europe many of the winters in the 60s were cold as were the summers. The very cold European winter of 62/63, however, saw record high temperatures for winter in the Greenland , Iceland region. So you would assume there is no link between a cold Arctic and a cold European winter. On the otherhand the snowstorms that occurred in the UK in the winters of 68/69 were major polar low formation in the very cold northerly/ NWly outbreaks from the high Arctic that coincided with the record southerly extent of the polar ice sheet.

C

Edited September 2, 2008 by carinthian

[Polar Continental]

Hello Paul,

I am not sure what the trigger was. Certainly in the UK and much of Europe many of the winters in the 60s were cold as were the summers. The very cold European winter of 62/63, however, saw record high temperatures for winter in the Greenland , Iceland region. So you would assume there is no link between a cold Arctic and a cold European winter. On the otherhand the snowstorms that occurred in the UK in the winters of 68/69 were major polar low formation in the very cold northerly/ NWly outbreaks from the high Arctic that coincided with the record southerly extent of the polar ice sheet.

C

It would be good to read any research if any has ever been carried out as to why. To my simple way of thinking, I can only assume what happened then was similar as to what happened during the little ice age, only on a much smaller scale.

One theory put forward as to the cause of the last little ice age was a prolonged period of low sunspot activity. Something like that possibly occurred during the 60’s, on a smaller scale!

Paul

[phil nw.]

Interesting discussion above regarding Polar Low developments in late 1960`s Winters.

I remember a Friday in February 1969 when a forecasted such development hit the Midlands at Lunchtime.

It started raining/sleeting then quickly turned to powder snow as the wind got up.

Chaos ensued within 2 hrs. as it quickly settled and by the time it peterd out around 7pm the Coventry/Warks area was virtually at a standstill.

I myself didn`t get home from work that night as many people were stranded in the nearest hotels workplaces or anywhere they could shelter.

Looking at the archives i have copied and posted the sypnotic chart for that day which shows a bitter Northerly flow right across the UK.

Something like this event would be unusual today but i too remember a number of these incidents in that era.

Edited September 2, 2008 by phil n.warks.

[Polar Continental]

Interesting discussion above regarding Polar Low developments in late 1960`s Winters.

I remember a Friday in February 1969 when a forecasted such development hit the Midlands at Lunchtime.

It started raining/sleeting then quickly turned to powder snow as the wind got up.

Chaos ensued within 2 hrs. as it quickly settled and by the time it peterd out around 7pm the Coventry/Warks area was virtually at a standstill.

I myself didn`t get home from work that night as many people were stranded in the nearest hotels workplaces or anywhere they could shelter.

Looking at the archives i have copied and posted the sypnotic chart for that day which shows a bitter Northerly flow right across the UK.

Something like this event would be unusual today but i too remember a number of these incidents in that era.

Hi Phil,

Amazing chart, and yes to get such a potent northerly these days would be near impossible I would think, just look at the charts below, 850hpa chart a day or so after, -15c isotherms and almost –20c hpa over Scotland.

v cold northerly

v cold northerly 2

Paul

[Optimus Prime]

Incredible, just look at the yearly average temperature for 1969;

Remember, that's the yearly average temperature not one month! Some parts of Europe almost 4c below normal.

Outstandingly cold December/January/February average;

Very cold Spring

Big turn around to a mild Autumn

Edited September 2, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[carinthian]

Interesting discussion above regarding Polar Low developments in late 1960`s Winters.

I remember a Friday in February 1969 when a forecasted such development hit the Midlands at Lunchtime.

It started raining/sleeting then quickly turned to powder snow as the wind got up.

Chaos ensued within 2 hrs. as it quickly settled and by the time it peterd out around 7pm the Coventry/Warks area was virtually at a standstill.

I myself didn`t get home from work that night as many people were stranded in the nearest hotels workplaces or anywhere they could shelter.

Looking at the archives i have copied and posted the sypnotic chart for that day which shows a bitter Northerly flow right across the UK.

Something like this event would be unusual today but i too remember a number of these incidents in that era.

Hi Phil,

Thats the chart I remember very well. Snow set in Mid- morning in Cheshire as the polar low travelled SE down from the Irish Sea into the midlands. 12 inches of the powdery stuff was deposited during the day and cleared by tea time as temperatures dropped to -7C as the wind blow the snow into deep drifts, particularly in the highground borders regions of Cheshire, Staffs and Derbyshire. I do think John Holmes was then on duty at Manchester Airport that day. I know I was sent home early from college and walked from the train station with snow up to my knees and waist deep on the wind swept lane to my dads farm. Happy days !

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes- that was it- 7 February 1969, the day of the max of -2.7 in Lancaster.

[carinthian]

Yes- that was it- 7 February 1969, the day of the max of -2.7 in Lancaster.

Hi TW,

Did Lancaster get snowfall from the same development ?

thks

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think it did, the development must have tracked to the south and west (as often happens). However Lancaster did appear to get snow from the frontal system before that, dropping 3cm.

[Northernlights]

Left for secondary school that day in a blizzard and buses were turned round when we got there after taking 20 mins to get there we took 2 hrs to get back up the hill to the farm road end in severe drifting snow. The farm road was filling in between two 4 feet stone walls and the snow was freezing to the side of our faces as we walked up it The max temp that day was -5c and the wind was very strong . There were several frosty sunny days after this with deep snow cover right to sea level a fantastic winter scene, with lots of sledging. Later that February the temp fell to -12c on the 18th. I still have the Atlantic Weather Map from my grandmothers Daily Telegraph of the 7th of February as even then I thought it was quite a significant snow storm. According to my diary drifts lay behind the north facing walls until the middle of March, winter had started in 1968 on the 16th October with the first significant snow on the hills round us and lay all day above 2000 feet. Wet snow also fell on Christmas day to give a covering which was topped up with dryer snow on Boxing day.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Hi Carinth

When is it that the likes of Svalbard start getting snow again? Those pics are always a nice taster for the winter months to come!

[carinthian]

Left for secondary school that day in a blizzard and buses were turned round when we got there after taking 20 mins to get there we took 2 hrs to get back up the hill to the farm road end in severe drifting snow. The farm road was filling in between two 4 feet stone walls and the snow was freezing to the side of our faces as we walked up it The max temp that day was -5c and the wind was very strong . There were several frosty sunny days after this with deep snow cover right to sea level a fantastic winter scene, with lots of sledging. Later that February the temp fell to -12c on the 18th. I still have the Atlantic Weather Map from my grandmothers Daily Telegraph of the 7th of February as even then I thought it was quite a significant snow storm. According to my diary drifts lay behind the north facing walls until the middle of March, winter had started in 1968 on the 16th October with the first significant snow on the hills round us and lay all day above 2000 feet. Wet snow also fell on Christmas day to give a covering which was topped up with dryer snow on Boxing day.

Great Report Northern Lights. Where were you living then ?

C

Hi Carinth

When is it that the likes of Svalbard start getting snow again? Those pics are always a nice taster for the winter months to come!

hI Coastie,

Any time now, twilight zone starts on the 21st September and the long Arctic darkness descents a month later. Quite a lot of snow retained this summer on the mountains above 1000m.

C

[londonsnow]

Great Report Northern Lights. Where were you living then ?

C

sounds like my experiences in the s midlands/ cotswolds in the winter of 81/82, going to school in -23 degrees, with a foot of powder to jump through. those were the days

[Jack Wales]

Hi Jack,

Northwesterlies were very potent towards the end of the 60s in the British Isles, particulary in the winter of 1969, with polar low activity producing some memorable snowfalls in the February of that winter.

C

This also coincided with a notably potent northerly in early April 1968 over Britain with maxima, despite sunshine in between the showers, widely held back at around 3C- it takes a very potent northerly these days for that to happen in early March! Then in February 1969, one of the northerlies brought a maximum of -2.7 at Lancaster despite bright sunshine- even the most potent of easterlies struggle to manage that.

The snowiness of winter 1968/69, and also the surrounding ones of 1967/68 and 1969/70, seem to have been assisted by an unusually high frequency of northerly and north-westerly winds- perhaps contributing to the ice extension?

Yes, there is something of a warm pool heading into the Arctic Circle at the moment that will take a while to shift, which will add to the above-average water extent and SSTs and thin first year ice issues. Last year's minimum is back to being under threat it would seem.

Hi both, thanks for that info re those winters, it just shows the difference it can make when the polar air had less time to be moderated by the sea. As you say we never see ice-days in low lying parts from northerlies any more so I was surprised by -2.7 as a max in Lancaster.

It does appear that last years minima is under threat although one subtle difference I've noticed is that the greater losses are being seen on the 'other side' of the arctic this year, with slightly better (although still below average) retention in the greenland sea and barents sea than in 2007.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Jack Wales

[Gray-Wolf]

2007 would/could have been worse still if the ice had'nt 'log jammed' on the eastern side (keepeing the eastern passage closed) but it would appear that this summer made light work of the 'jam'. In reality the only major grouping of perennial ice is in the 'protected zone' behind Greenland but the way it's northern glaciers are going it would seem that this final 'Safe Haven' is now under threat.

[oldsnowywizard]

2007 would/could have been worse still if the ice had'nt 'log jammed' on the eastern side (keepeing the eastern passage closed) but it would appear that this summer made light work of the 'jam'. In reality the only major grouping of perennial ice is in the 'protected zone' behind Greenland but the way it's northern glaciers are going it would seem that this final 'Safe Haven' is now under threat.

yes GW.. although i did hear a rumour that greenland was cooling? perhaps someone in the know could confirm.. good news at last(subject to usual ts and cs..) a nice large cold pool developing next week.. -10 and -15 850s...

quick question.. what would be better for ice development? Low pressure bringing in snowfall, or cold high pressure? for the Arctic..

i would imagine a huge dump of snow Autumn and then clear high pressure?

[Northernlights]

Great Report Northern Lights. Where were you living then ?

C

hI Coastie,

Any time now, twilight zone starts on the 21st September and the long Arctic darkness descents a month later. Quite a lot of snow retained this summer on the mountains above 1000m.

C

I"m afraid I haven"t moved around a lot apart from going to Agri college so still living on the south of the Moray Firth at 100m asl midway between Inverness and Elgin on the farm my family have tenanted since 1868 with superb views to the north, west and south of surrounding mountains and North sea to the NE

[TEITS]

Thanks carinthian,

Very interesting, it does make you wonder what caused the ice to extend so far south during that period, only to suddenly retreat again.

As you say it just goes to show how quickly things can change.

Paul

I would say the phase of the AO is a contributing factor. We all know that during the 60's the AO was mainly negative but since 89 has been positive. A postive AO basically means lower surface pressure, LP systems being further N bringing warmer temps further N than usual.

[Rich_Clements]

Not sure this is the right place apologies if not, but another interesting ice melt article on the bbc news website, the Markham ice shelf has completly gone.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7595441.stm

All this fresh water into the ocean will this effect the AO?