Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[picog]

Seems to have warmed up a bit in Svalbard

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

This has been white for over a week & now a thaw's set in by the look of it.

Is it clouds that you have been seeing? It looks OK to me.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80915162428.htm

The loss of perennial ice does seem to have implications as the above article outlines.

We now have less 'volume' of ice (even if it is spread thinly giving a slightly higher 'extent ' than last year) than ever recorded before.

The loss of perennial , and it replacement by thin 'single year' ,means a net loss in the volume of ice present in the Arctic.

Not good, not good at all.

[carinthian]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80915162428.htm

The loss of perennial ice does seem to have implications as the above article outlines.

We now have less 'volume' of ice (even if it is spread thinly giving a slightly higher 'extent ' than last year) than ever recorded before.

The loss of perennial , and it replacement by thin 'single year' ,means a net loss in the volume of ice present in the Arctic.

Not good, not good at all.

Hi GW,

I agree , not good at all. The rate of loss is even greater than last year considering the spring ice area was higher than the previous winter. It will be interesting to compare the rate of freeze over in the coming months. It may take several " colder than normal polar winters to produce the thicker , longer lasting summer ice again.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GW,

I agree , not good at all. The rate of loss is even greater than last year considering the spring ice area was higher than the previous winter. It will be interesting to compare the rate of freeze over in the coming months. It may take several " colder than normal polar winters to produce the thicker , longer lasting summer ice again.

C

Hi Carinth!

From what I saw north of Svalbard I also have concerns about ice re-formation as now ,it would appear, we have the spectre of massive chunks of surviving perennial acting as 'icebreakers' as the wind/currents plough them through the newly forming ice cover.

I don't think this has been a common event up there during our period of sat. recording. I also have no idea about what drove the December breakup, and opening up of that km's wide causeway, to the north of the Canadian Archipelago last year. I know the coastguards logged it ,and we all saw it, but what the sneck caused it to be???

[jemtom]

Another very worrying Summer of melt in the Arctic. Increased amounts of open water have absorbed more and more warmth, with far less ice around to reflect this back into space. Have we reached the critical tipping point? Only time will tell, but if not I believe we are far closer to it than many thought we'd be even just 4 or 5 years ago.

[xxx]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7619770.stm

no record this year.

[Nick L]

Is it me or do the BBC seem disappointed by the fact it isn't a record low?!

[jemtom]

Record overall low or not doesn't really matter, the trend continues and at local level the warming has been alarming. We have seen unprecedented events this Summer up in the Arctic and I expect we'll see similar things happening down south once again during the Antarctic Summer.

Whilst it's encouraging to see some degree of slow down up north this season, I fear in the grand scheme of things it matters little, if at all.

[ghrud]

Record overall low or not doesn't really matter, the trend continues and at local level the warming has been alarming. We have seen unprecedented events this Summer up in the Arctic and I expect we'll see similar things happening down south once again during the Antarctic Summer.

Whilst it's encouraging to see some degree of slow down up north this season, I fear in the grand scheme of things it matters little, if at all.

AGAIN! What do you mean? Example please.

[Gray-Wolf]

AGAIN! What do you mean? Example please.

If I may Field that for you Jemton.

I think the folk are concerned that there is less 'volume' of ice than ever recorded before, granted , it may be spread thin so as to not give an ice extent record this year (only second lowest eh?) but to loose 56% of all the arctic perennial ice since we started logging such things cannot be pushed aside (unless you can convince why it can of course and my mind is always open to such things 'cos it'll make my life jollier......so long as it is based in cold reality and not wishy thinking).

To see the North coast of Ellesmere island shed a further 23% of it's fringing shelf (leaving 5 storey high bergs to ice break around the arctic at the beck and call of wind and current.....why the sneck Russia need their new 'Super breaker' when you can just follow one of those babys around.....)

To have both Seaways wide open for the first time in history......

Must I go on? (I know I do somewhat but fercrissakes man!)

[oldsnowywizard]

doesnt look good... be interesting again to see what impact this will cause for Autumn and the rest of winter.. its very worrying that multiyear ice has vanished so quickly and during our lifetime...

Jemtom im not entiely sure you can compare whats happening up n the artic to the antartic.. completely different ball game.. remember last winter was a record high (based on 30 years) and summer levels were also high...

does anyone know if sea levels have risen or if there has been any impact on ocean currents based on all the ice melt?

[jemtom]

doesnt look good... be interesting again to see what impact this will cause for Autumn and the rest of winter.. its very worrying that multiyear ice has vanished so quickly and during our lifetime...

Jemtom im not entiely sure you can compare whats happening up n the artic to the antartic.. completely different ball game.. remember last winter was a record high (based on 30 years) and summer levels were also high...

does anyone know if sea levels have risen or if there has been any impact on ocean currents based on all the ice melt?

I wasn't drawing a direct comparison OSW, just making the point that further unprecedented events (we'll have to wait and see what actually trarspires) in connection with the overall trend are likely during the coming Antarctic Summer.

[jemtom]

If I may Field that for you Jemton.

I think the folk are concerned that there is less 'volume' of ice than ever recorded before, granted , it may be spread thin so as to not give an ice extent record this year (only second lowest eh?) but to loose 56% of all the arctic perennial ice since we started logging such things cannot be pushed aside (unless you can convince why it can of course and my mind is always open to such things 'cos it'll make my life jollier......so long as it is based in cold reality and not wishy thinking).

To see the North coast of Ellesmere island shed a further 23% of it's fringing shelf (leaving 5 storey high bergs to ice break around the arctic at the beck and call of wind and current.....why the sneck Russia need their new 'Super breaker' when you can just follow one of those babys around.....)

To have both Seaways wide open for the first time in history......

Must I go on? (I know I do somewhat but fercrissakes man!)

Some folk will fail to accept the facts GW, even when high tide brings water levels up to their bedroom window sills ...

The reality is Arctic warming is happening very much as predicted, however the speed in which it is happening is breathtaking and totally unpredicted. My thoughts are we have not only reached the tipping point, we've actually tipped, with even greater acceleration likely from here on.

However, sat here at only 24ft above MSL I sincerely hope I'm wrong!

[mountain shadow]

To have both Seaways wide open for the first time in history......

In recorded history maybe. Didn't the Chinese sail around the Artic in the early 15th C? Sure I read that somewhere.

Why can't we actually say this is a positive thing? It might very well be a new trend beginning to increasing ice cover which in time would translate to increased thickness also?

The Climate is a volatile beast, we all know that. I say wait 12 months and see what happens.

[J10]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7619770.stm

no record this year.

The NSIDC article relating to this.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/20080916_minimum_MA.html

[ribster]

If I may Field that for you Jemton.

I think the folk are concerned that there is less 'volume' of ice than ever recorded before, granted , it may be spread thin so as to not give an ice extent record this year (only second lowest eh?) but to loose 56% of all the arctic perennial ice since we started logging such things cannot be pushed aside (unless you can convince why it can of course and my mind is always open to such things 'cos it'll make my life jollier......so long as it is based in cold reality and not wishy thinking).

To see the North coast of Ellesmere island shed a further 23% of it's fringing shelf (leaving 5 storey high bergs to ice break around the arctic at the beck and call of wind and current.....why the sneck Russia need their new 'Super breaker' when you can just follow one of those babys around.....)

To have both Seaways wide open for the first time in history......

Must I go on? (I know I do somewhat but fercrissakes man!)

Indeed, the key word or phrase you use there is 'ever recorded', i.e. a very small time frame indeed. And both seaways open for the first time in history? Again, recorded history maybe, but not in the history of the planet.

Edited September 16, 2008 by ribster

[Gray-Wolf]

Indeed, the key word or phrase you use there is 'ever recorded', i.e. a very small time frame indeed. And both seaways open for the first time in history? Again, recorded history maybe, but not in the history of the planet.

Most of our planets history was ice free but is that the issue here? We have plenty of data to show ice extents due to the unique signature the ice cover produces below but, since 1979, we have sat over the poles and seen the whole picture at once......a much more 'instant' capture of things dontcha think?

The thing you are not making clear is whether or not you are concerned with the global implications for humanity, and the rest of the species we threaten with extinction, of the loss of sea ice and the release of super greenhouse gasses from the permafrosts. Once up to speed this process just reinforces itself until the planet becomes ice free (once again) and we are treated to the melt waters from GIS/EAIS/WAIS on top of that occurring across the landmasses in terms of both increased desertification and extreme weather/climate events.

Don't shoot the messenger eh?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Most of our planets history was ice free but is that the issue here?

It is the issue. This planet is an iceball then its not, nature did that. This time it must be man even though cyclically the timing is right regards to where we are and how the planet is climatically. Concerned? Yes its going to get very very cold.

BFTP

Edited September 17, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mr Sleet]

The NSDIC are now reporting that the Arctic ice minimum for 2008 has passed and is almost 0.5 sqkm up on 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7619770.stm

Back in April I said that it was a foregone conclusion that the 2008 minimum would be higher than that in 2007. I was ridiculed in some quarters

by some who ( no names GW) who said that they expected all the ice to go. Observe the master and learn.

[Gray-Wolf]

The NSDIC are now reporting that the Arctic ice minimum for 2008 has passed and is almost 0.5 sqkm up on 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7619770.stm

Back in April I said that it was a foregone conclusion that the 2008 minimum would be higher than that in 2007. I was ridiculed in some quarters

by some who ( no names GW) who said that they expected all the ice to go. Observe the master and learn.

The ice volume is the lowest ever recorded Mr S.!!! How thin are you willing to spread it to try and hoodwink those who need help in understanding such things??? 56% of the perennial ice lost over the past 30 years, the last chunks of Markham gone, the biggest glacier on Greenland split in two, both shipping lanes open for traffic, island arctic a reality..........nah, all's fine.................

Edited September 17, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

The NSDIC are now reporting that the Arctic ice minimum for 2008 has passed and is almost 0.5 sqkm up on 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7619770.stm

Back in April I said that it was a foregone conclusion that the 2008 minimum would be higher than that in 2007. I was ridiculed in some quarters

by some who ( no names GW) who said that they expected all the ice to go. Observe the master and learn.

I think those Polar bears should get a agent, all those photos and no appearance fee ?

From the graph it seems to suggest the max ice extent doesn't change much year on year is this right?

Ps what is wrong with a artic free of ice ,sea levels wont change and it appears the Antarctic does its own thing

Maybe there are changes deep down in ocean currents around the world ?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think those Polar bears should get a agent, all those photos and no appearance fee ?

From the graph it seems to suggest the max ice extent doesn't change much year on year is this right?

Ps what is wrong with a artic free of ice ,sea levels wont change and it appears the Antarctic does its own thing

Maybe there are changes deep down in ocean currents around the world ?

Hi again stewfox!

Though maybe we should adjourn to the enviro thread I'll jot a quick reply here. As Carinth has pointed out in the 50's the ice extended to Iceland and probably did similar in other areas that allowed 'expansion' so , no ,max extent did not used to be so constant.

The Antarctic is changing. Current thinking has southern ocean waters now penetrating through the circumpolar current, which previously had allowed a kind of 'splendid isolation' for the Antarctic continent, starting with the areas jutting out into the southern oceans (the peninsula) but moving inexorably toward the main shorelines of Antarctica. If you plotted concentric circles around the south pole you'll plot the movement of the 'warm waters' closer and closer to the main body of Antarctic coastline with the Wilkins breakup (this last Antarctic mid-winter) plotting the max extent. Project the line further in and you will see the peril the rest of the Antarctic ice shelves now face....esp. if winter is no protection to them.

Again, an ice free arctic is more worrisome for the root change in 'energy'. The pole used to act as a kind of 'global thermostat' reflecting over 90% of the incoming energy back out. The thermostat is now broken and the 'dark waters' (now free of ice over summer) absorb over 80% of the incoming energy. So from a less than 10% absorption to over 80% absorption means a lot more warming....even without our messing around. Then we have the perma-frost, 4/5ths of which resides in the northern hemisphere. Current studies now show that they hold twice as much methane/CO2 as previously thought. When the coast is ice free the warmth penetrates up to 70 miles inland so the permafrost in this area melts and the gasses that were trapped there spill out into the atmosphere further adding to the greenhouse effect (and how!!! with Methane being a 'super greenhouse gas capable of 15 times the amount of warming than CO2 alone!!).

Some deep sea current takes over 150yrs to complete their 'trip' so we are only now getting waters warmed in the late 1800's popping back up .....what happens when the water from the 1980's starts to pop back up????

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi GW.

According to the BBC report, it wasnt a record minimum? Slightly confused, but i'm guessing you have another report which states it was a record?

[picog]

Most of our planets history was ice free but is that the issue here? We have plenty of data to show ice extents due to the unique signature the ice cover produces below but, since 1979, we have sat over the poles and seen the whole picture at once......a much more 'instant' capture of things dontcha think?

The thing you are not making clear is whether or not you are concerned with the global implications for humanity, and the rest of the species we threaten with extinction, of the loss of sea ice and the release of super greenhouse gasses from the permafrosts. Once up to speed this process just reinforces itself until the planet becomes ice free (once again) and we are treated to the melt waters from GIS/EAIS/WAIS on top of that occurring across the landmasses in terms of both increased desertification and extreme weather/climate events.

Don't shoot the messenger eh?

GW, how do you explain the predominance of years when the earth has been ice-free in the past? In most of these ice-free periods the average global temperature has been some 10-12C higher than right now. What causes these huge temperature changes? What causes the temperature to fall back, as well? It's almost as though the earth "operates" between a global average temperature of 12C and 22C. A rise in global temperatures of 10-12C would be considered disastrous for humankind, and yet this has been the cyclical nature of the climate. We just happen to be in one of the cool phases right now. Whether we are just about to warm up, or still to cool a little further in the natural cycle remains to be seen.

[jemtom]

Hi again stewfox!

Though maybe we should adjourn to the enviro thread I'll jot a quick reply here. As Carinth has pointed out in the 50's the ice extended to Iceland and probably did similar in other areas that allowed 'expansion' so , no ,max extent did not used to be so constant.

The Antarctic is changing. Current thinking has southern ocean waters now penetrating through the circumpolar current, which previously had allowed a kind of 'splendid isolation' for the Antarctic continent, starting with the areas jutting out into the southern oceans (the peninsula) but moving inexorably toward the main shorelines of Antarctica. If you plotted concentric circles around the south pole you'll plot the movement of the 'warm waters' closer and closer to the main body of Antarctic coastline with the Wilkins breakup (this last Antarctic mid-winter) plotting the max extent. Project the line further in and you will see the peril the rest of the Antarctic ice shelves now face....esp. if winter is no protection to them.

Again, an ice free arctic is more worrisome for the root change in 'energy'. The pole used to act as a kind of 'global thermostat' reflecting over 90% of the incoming energy back out. The thermostat is now broken and the 'dark waters' (now free of ice over summer) absorb over 80% of the incoming energy. So from a less than 10% absorption to over 80% absorption means a lot more warming....even without our messing around. Then we have the perma-frost, 4/5ths of which resides in the northern hemisphere. Current studies now show that they hold twice as much methane/CO2 as previously thought. When the coast is ice free the warmth penetrates up to 70 miles inland so the permafrost in this area melts and the gasses that were trapped there spill out into the atmosphere further adding to the greenhouse effect (and how!!! with Methane being a 'super greenhouse gas capable of 15 times the amount of warming than CO2 alone!!).

Some deep sea current takes over 150yrs to complete their 'trip' so we are only now getting waters warmed in the late 1800's popping back up .....what happens when the water from the 1980's starts to pop back up????

This IMHO is the crux of the whole matter. Open ocean absorbs heat at an alarming rate compared to ice cover, therefore the greater the surface area of water exposed the greater the warming - surely this is not rocket science?

OK this year has only seen the 2nd lowest minimum ice extent since satallite analysis began, but that's very thin ice (no pun intended) to be pinning any hope of a pattern change on.

Major sea level rises look as inevitable as night following day IF the current overall warming trend continues (and no one has yet given a viable reason why it won't). Indeed the significant local warming we've witnessed recently across much of Greenland for instance may make this a reality much sooner than many expected, even as recently as the turn on the century.