Super Typhoon Sinlaku

[Somerset Squall]

After a two week lull, the West Pacific has awoken again with TD15W. The system has rapidly consolidated over the last 24hrs and has deep convection over the centre and good banding features, I expect JTWC to upgrade it to a tropical storm next advisory. Conditions are very favourable for development with very warm ocean heat content, low shear and good outflow. Therefore, TD15W will intensify on the northwards track to the east of the Philippines. The depression is expected to bend northeastwards east of Taiwan as a trough passes through and steers the system. Timing is uncertain at this stage, but due to the environment of even better outflow, the new cyclone could become a typhoon in a few days time. At this stage, it's impossible to tell whether 15W will ever affect land.

[Somerset Squall]

TD15W has strengthened this evening and has been upgraded to a tropical storm, named Sinlaku by the JMA. Forecast intensities have risen a bit as the environment really is very favourable, some aggressive intensification may be on the cards over the coming days...

[shuggee]

And the title of the thread now reflects that! Cheers SS :lol:

[Cookie]

thanks somerset

Storm Alert issued at 8 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FIFTEEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[tropical madness]

Currently 975hPa with sustained 85kt winds. Gusts at 120kts. The JMA predicts it to intensify to ~940hPa within 48 hours. Fun fun fun!

[Somerset Squall]

Currently 975hPa with sustained 85kt winds. Gusts at 120kts. The JMA predicts it to intensify to ~940hPa within 48 hours. Fun fun fun!

Not quite that strong yet TM, though I expect it will be very soon!

Indeed, Sinlaku is now a typhoon, with sustained winds of 65kts. Further intensification, perhaps rapid, is expected to due low shear, hot sea temps and enhanced outflow for the next few days. Sinlaku has been moving slowly northwards since yesterday and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48-72hrs, before a turn to the northeast is forcast. When this occurs, shear will increase and sea temps fall, which will induce extratropical transition according to the JTWC. JTWC currently predicitng a peak of 110kts, though Sinlaku may well go higher than that. Still not forecast to threaten land as yet.

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku has developed the dreaded pinhole eye over the last few hours and the intensity has rapidly climbed to 90kts. Sinlaku could well become a super typhoon tomorrow as condtions remain very favourable. Sinlaku has certainly spun up very quickly and now JTWC expect a peak of 125kts, but as I said before, it may go higher than that!

What a beast!!

[Cookie]

nice image their mate!

an update on possible landfall?

Storm Alert issued at 9 Sep, 2008 12:00 GMT

Typhoon SINLAKU is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 10 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon SINLAKU is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the updates Cookie.

Sinlaku is now at 110kts, but looking at satellite imagery I reckon Sinlaku will be a lot higher than that next advisory. The eye is very well defined and clear, with some really impressive convectional banding. How high will Sinlaku go? Has potential for cat 5 I reckon, if this intensification keeps up.

[opplevelse]

She is a lovely storm with expected sustained of 125knts and upt o 150knt gusts. Fortunately she will likely miss most populated areas.

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku is now a super typhoon with sustained winds of 125kts. JTWC now peak Sinlaku at 135kts, which is on the borderline for cat 4/5, so legendary cat 5 status is not out of the question. If it did achieve this, it would be the first tropical cyclone to officially reach cat 5 this year so far (note a couple may have done but were underestimated: TC Hondo, TC Nargis, Super Typhoon Rammasun for example).

[opplevelse]

Downgraded sustained winds back down to 130knts, with gusts to 160knts, but they have prolonged it ... still a nasty nasty storm

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku seems to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, as a double eyewall is now evident on satellite imagery. Sinlaku is likely to weaken whilst doing this, but after it's complete the typhoon may put on another burst of intensification. Sinlaku may regain super typhoon status before moving northeastwards into westerlies and beginning extratropical transition. JTWC stresses the fact that the timing of the projected northeastwards turn is uncertain, therefore northern Taiwan and Eastern China (the Shanghai region) really need to keep a close eye on dangerous Sinlaku.

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku is struggling to complete it's eyewall replacement cycle with two eyewalls battling it out for dominance. As a result, Sinlaku has weakened, and is now at 105kts. Because Sinlaku is taking longer than expected to complete the EWRC, the typhoon is only expected to re-strengthen to 115kts before it reaches cooler waters, and the chances of Sinlaku regaining Super Typhoon status are decreasing. Indeed, if the inner core structural problems persist then the typhoon may continue weakening.

[Cookie]

still looks a very good system though

I would be giveing strom alerts but my net at home is bust and the libary pc won't let me copy n past

Edited September 12, 2008 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Intensity has been reduced to 100kts as Sinlaku continues to struggle to complete the eye wall replacement cycle. The typhoon clearly still has a diuble eyewall. A westwards wobble and a later recurve forcast has meant that Taiwan is in danger of seeing Sinlaku scrape very close by. This will bring excessive rains and some very damaging winds as the eye passes by. Hopefully the residents are prepared as much as they can be as Sinlaku was not forecast to come this close before, and despite weakening it is still a very dangerous and life threatening typhoon.

Once Sinlaku completes the EWRC, re-strengthening could occur and it looks like it may reach cat 4 status again, before accelerating northeastwards in westerlies and weakening. Cooler waters to the south of South Korea and higher shear should induce extratropical transistion in a few days. Sinlaku is likely to be a powerful extratropical cyclone when it goes on to hit Japan. There is a chance Sinlaku won't have completed ET by the time it reaches Japan so the country will probably be closely monitoring the progress of Sinlaku.

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku weakened further overnight and dropped to 85kts, but has since re-intensified to 95kts. The EWRC finished today and allowed Sinlaku to recover a little. It's currently pounding Taiwan with severe winds and life threatening rains. This could continue for at least another 24hrs as Sinlaku moves very little. The typhoon is then forecast to move northeastwards as it gets caught in mid-lattitude westerlies and begins ET. Sinlaku should complete ET just south of Japan.

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku has been loitering near the north coast of Taiwan over the last day or so, and has brought torrential rains and damaging winds to the country. It has killed 4 people in Taiwan and left 7 missing.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/...nt_10024031.htm

What next for Sinlaku? Well it has began the much anticipated northeastwards turn. Sinlaku is forecast to maintain minimal typhoon intensity for the next 36hrs before cooler waters and strong shear negetively impact the cyclone. The combination of these factors will also drive the beginnings of extratropical transition which will be complete south of Japan around 96hrs.

[Cookie]

thanks for the update mate

Storm Alert issued at 16 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SINLAKU is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Saga (33.0 N, 133.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the alert Cookie.

Sinlaku is now a 45kt tropical storm. Shear has increased but Sinlaku has stood up well to it so far, it was at 45kts last night so it's managed to hold it's own. However, waters will cool and this thing can't stay tropical for ever. Time is running out for Sinlaku, as ET is expected to begin in 24 hours time.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 17 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm SINLAKU is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Saga (33.0 N, 133.0 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)

probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)

probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Nagoya (35.2 N, 136.9 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Due to enhanced outflow, Sinlaku regained typhoon status this morning as it rapidly intensified to 65kts. Since then, the newly formed eye has dissapeared and convection has become more shallow with Sinlaku, and intensity has been reduced to 55kts, which is still stronger than this time yesterday. However, strong shear continues to affect the storm and ET will begin ET around 36hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Against all odds, Sinlaku has become a typhoon yet again, just south of Japan, with an intensity of 70kts. In the last few hours though, Sinlaku has been taking on extratropical characteristics, with deep convection becoming shallow again and the windfield expanding. ET is expected to be complete by 24hrs, but as Sinlaku has shown before, it may fight it off a little longer.

[Somerset Squall]

Sinlaku is now extratropical and is accelerating out into the open waters of the North Pacific. Sinlaku may remain a deep and powerful system in it's extratropical phase.