Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[kold weather]

Carry on here....

Recon just found 123kts at flight level, those winds should justify cat-3 status...strengthening before landfall, never a good thing.

[hoghedge]

Link to Galveston Webcams that seems to work

http://www.gcoem.org/content/view/31/146/

Yes KW, Iceberg mentioned that it looks like Ike's having a good old strenghthen

Full report is now on Sky News at last.... pics look pretty serious

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[tinybill]

Link to Galveston Web cams that seems to work

http://www.gcoem.org/content/view/31/146/

Yes KW, Iceberg mentioned that it looks like Ike's having a good old strengthen

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/strea...mond&uid=17

from the old link people must be nuts about 7 hours be fore land fall

[kold weather]

Dropsonde found winds at the boundary level (which is how we calculate the wind speeds in dropsondes) also suggests that we have winds around 100kts, I think this is odds on for being a major hurricane now...

I'm relaly scared we are seeing another Katrina type situation...just hope more people have gone then is estimated by some...

Can't believe some people are foolish enough to ride out this hurricae with a crazy storm surge, sadly people get complacent and as this region hasn't had a strong cane like Ike for a good few decades so the younger generation will have never had anything like this.

[MAF]

Latest data from Station 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX

Note they are doing ten minute refresh on the data

Continuous Winds

TIME(CDT) WDIR WSPD

10:50 am NE ( 47 deg ) 29.3 kts

10:40 am NE ( 48 deg ) 28.0 kts

10:30 am NE ( 47 deg ) 28.7 kts

10:20 am NE ( 48 deg ) 27.8 kts

10:10 am NE ( 46 deg ) 26.4 kts

10:00 am NE ( 48 deg ) 28.0 kts

[kold weather]

KHOU said 20-50 people on roofs on the flooding Bolivar peninsula. Coast Guard helicopters are en route...I do hope this isn't repeated around the coasts because once the winds get upto 40-50kts then it'll be too dangerous for the coast guards to go out.

Mick, those winds are going to rise pretty soon I suspect as Ike gets closer.

[MAF]

Advisory #46 issued

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/121453.shtml?

...100 MPH PLUS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY

MIDNIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLIER...

[Louby]

I have heard reports this afternoon they expect Ike to get to a Cat 4 before it hits land, is there really a chance of this?

[Gray-Wolf]

Dropsonde found winds at the boundary level (which is how we calculate the wind speeds in dropsondes) also suggests that we have winds around 100kts, I think this is odds on for being a major hurricane now...

I'm really scared we are seeing another Katrina type situation...just hope more people have gone then is estimated by some...

Can't believe some people are foolish enough to ride out this hurricane with a crazy storm surge, sadly people get complacent and as this region hasn't had a strong cane like Ike for a good few decades so the younger generation will have never had anything like this.

It would seem that at least some folk, when they woke to the Gulf lapping at their doorstep, have done the wise thing and made a last minute dash the heck outa there.

Sadly ,for some, there is now no way out if you don't have a boat and their situation is looking very dire.

Unlike Katrina the waters will recede from many areas after the storm so folk will get in to help (unlike Katrina) but the only help they may provide is carting in body bags for the house bound bodies........

Remember ,the storm will be at it's worst in the dark so once the power is out (water is already off in areas of Galveston) it'll be horrid, esp. if your property is flooding and collapsing around you.....home sweet home????

[Katherine]

I have heard reports this afternoon they expect Ike to get to a Cat 4 before it hits land, is there really a chance of this?

Unlikely - space is running out for this.

[Louby]

Unlikely - space is running out for this.

Thanks Katherine, I did have a feeling that was the case, but being a novice so to speak I doubted myself

[PersianPaladin]

If you refer to my previous post in the other thread; I did mention NOAA's statement that strengthening at this time was expected and they predicted a Cat 3 upon landfall. So did Roger J Smith...who imo, has been on the ball at the moment.

[MAF]

I have heard reports this afternoon they expect Ike to get to a Cat 4 before it hits land, is there really a chance of this?

not looking likely Lou

here is the current forecast advisory from NOAA

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT

DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS

REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER

CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.

AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN

COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE

FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS

STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE

LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY

TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER

LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH

A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

[hoghedge]

Nasa Pic

[Megamoonflake]

There is too much going on with all these live feeds, I feel like I'm a mixing DJ http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

Hurricane expert on Khou news says cat 2 for wind, but more like cat 4-5 for storm surge! Interesting 12 hours ahead.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Megamoonflake

[tinybill]

There is too much going on with all these live feeds, I feel like I'm a mixing DJ http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

Hurricane expert on Khou news says cat 2 for wind, but more like cat 4-5 for storm surge! Interesting 12 hours ahead. :lol:

large pier collapsed plus have people noticed that due to the wind its kept the tide in and its not gone out

http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&amp...es&noad=yes

Edited September 12, 2008 by tinybill

[opplevelse]

HogHedge, that pic along with a pile of others was posted yesterday in the other thread ... very cool :lol:

Eye has definitely passed 42361 now and wind speed is re increasing.

Pressure sensor seems to be stuckon 967.8 ... I wonder whether that is its bottom out reading?

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 30.0 m/s

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 967.8 mb

Air Temperature (ATMP): 28.0 °C

Dew Point (DEWP): 26.0 °C

Heat Index (HEAT): 33.6 °C

[MAF]

just thought i would post latest sat image before signing off

[hoghedge]

Sorry Opplevelse - I just can't keep up :lol: I didn't see that pic earlier on....

I'm now monitoring the tide height - the last 10 mins has seen this go up from under 7 to over 7 - http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html Someone was also metioning a levee has given way ?? I suppose the surge and size of this is going to affect a LOT of people along the coast, not just TX.

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[Matty M]

Funny to see Geraldo? from Fox News get knocked over 5 minutes ago!!

That channel annoys me so much other than its Cane reporting though.

Like can a channel actually be THAT biased? Its incredible coverage of the US Election.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Matty M

[SMU]

There is too much going on with all these live feeds, I feel like I'm a mixing DJ

Hurricane expert on Khou news says cat 2 for wind, but more like cat 4-5 for storm surge! Interesting 12 hours ahead. :lol:

Well, Ive been watching Ike Since this was a CAT 4 out in waters of the Southern Atlantic-

Appologies to Opplevelse for the difference of opinion earlier-

This is now running the final furlong to Lanfall- Since Cuba this Hurricane has never gained the sort of intensity that some expected-

Perhaps the combination of unrealistic expectation, Dry air intrusion to the North West, Land interaction over Cuba & its sheer expanse has served to moderate the intensity- ( the latter will always be the killer in terns of windfields because of the gradient from the core to the outer bands-)

Aside from my excitable posts earlier in the thread IKE's storm surge remains the Killer threat to the locations in the pathway of Landfall & directly to the North of that locale-

This message SHOULD have been stressed sooner to the people of Galveston etc etc- The Sea wall defences were built as I recall to 17 Feet, however due to erosion since being built have subsided by 5/6 feet- This means it will be over topped by any surge over 12 foot- DONT FORGET THE WAVES ON TOP

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wave

The 06z Wave model foes for a~ 22 footstorm surge into the bay- this is CAT 5 levels-

The storm surge is related to the Kinetic Energy stored in ike - incidentally named I.K.E-

The total energy of Ike

The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.

If you think that the Storm force finds ( ie CAT 2 > CAT5) are more important to a Hurricane that the Storm surge then load up these images of firstly a Cat3 with a Standard Surge than a Surge ( second image) directly related to a CAT 5-

As far as it stands now- We are VERY lucky for the Dry air intrusion in the NW quad- all day long the DEEP convection has looked good on the IR & WV imagery-

If the system closes off there is still time for a little intensification- However it matters not now-

THis is where the damaging winds are-

Edited September 12, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Louby]

not sure if anyone else has posted this but just in case they haven't .....

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

[hoghedge]

From Storm2k

"

Location: Pearland, Texas I just got back from the seawall.....it is some I have never imagine could happen....waves coming over.....Steward road impassable......me and dad save a woman you drove off into a ditch. water up to her windows. 911 refused to come get her. We got her in and took her to the causeway....That is the sacriest moment in my life. The water was rising 2-3 inches per 10 mintues. I didnt want to levae her so we took the chance.....I wont be doing that again (driving to the west end during a surge)......we were trying to make one more trip to save my families belongings but we were to late.....I have video. When I get time I can share. Might make you throw up though. Little shaky.... "

:lol: And Steve M - that looks like some serious flooding - Sky just said 20ft Surge into Galveston expected.....

Tides going up - now nearing 8ft at the bay and towards 8.5ft at the pier in Galveston....

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[geoffw]

i may be shot down for this comment but I dont think this storm surge will be all that bad or will it be a major disaster?

[SMU]

i may be shot down for this comment but I dont think this storm surge will be all that bad or will it be a major disaster?

Sadly your probably going to be wrong- look the PROJECTED flooding sue to the 22 foot Surge-

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wave

Core is 40 Feet- running down to 20/22 feet in the bay-

The only was this isnt a major disaster is if ike tracks North of the bay....

The thing that is happening now that could help this is the mass convergence of the convection firing on the Northern side at themoment-

The mass of the rotation has shifted from the Se to the NE - that gives it an uneven balance- which may help jog the system NE....

S

Edited September 12, 2008 by Steve Murr