Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[robl1200]

Sadly your probably going to be wrong- look the PROJECTED flooding sue to the 22 foot Surge-

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wave

Core is 40 Feet- running down to 20/22 feet in the bay-

The only was this isnt a major disaster is if ike tracks North of the bay....

S

Steve just beat me to it, the only saving grace for Galveston Island/Texas City is that IKE makes a sudden right hand turn at the last minute. However as each hour passes this is looking unlikely to happen.

Also just to point that due to the funnelling effect, although people are quoting 20ft surge height, due to the funnelling i'd expect an extra 5ft on top of this plus the waves aswell.

Edited September 12, 2008 by robl1200

[geoffw]

so are we talking major disaster if ike stays on its proected current path?

[tinybill]

don,t know if any once else is listening to the TV station specking to a Mr Sherman hes house is 16 foot above water already got a 5 foot flood below when they told him of the surge al he said we will ride it out how dum can you get

[SMU]

Steve just beat me to it, the only saving grace for Galveston Island/Texas City is that IKE makes a sudden right hand turn at the last minute. However as each hour passes this is looking unlikely to happen.

as above this is VERY important...

The thing that is happening now that could help this is the mass convergence of the convection firing on the Northern side at themoment-

The mass of the rotation has shifted from the Se to the NE - that gives it an uneven balance- which may help jog the system NE....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html

Look at the mass change to the North & North east-

S

[I can't believe it's not better]

i may be shot down for this comment but I dont think this storm surge will be all that bad or will it be a major disaster?

Well, if your Geoff Wright, my old geography teacher and mobile fruit n veg seller, and you've moved to North Wales - then I'm tempted to believe you. Otherwise - Bang, Bang, Bang!!

[PersianPaladin]

Steve....a slight shift to the NE will not make a jot of difference. Neither will an increase of just 10kt winds....the sheer scale of the wind-field has already moved a large mass of water towards the region of landfall.

I hope I'm wrong...but from what I've observed...its already too late.

Edited September 12, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[tinybill]

Steve....a slight shift to the NE will not make a jot of difference. Neither will an increase of just 10kt winds....the sheer scale of the wind-field has already moved a large mass of water towards the region of landfall.

I hope I'm wrong...but from what I've observed...its already too late.

still 12 hours before land fall

plus this the only eoad left out for howmuch longer

Edited September 12, 2008 by tinybill

[SMU]

Steve....a slight shift to the NE will not make a jot of difference. Neither will an increase of just 10kt winds....the sheer scale of the wind-field has already moved a large mass of water towards the region of landfall.

I hope I'm wrong...but from what I've observed...its already too late.

A track north of the bay ~ 20 miles will certainly not Mute the effects of the winds but will minimise the effects & heights of the storm surge-

Remember the defences are ~ 17 foot- a direct hit its overtopped 100%- A miss to the North & there a SLIM chance it may not be as bad as predicted...

S

Edited September 12, 2008 by Steve Murr

[JT Texas]

Seawall is about 17 ft. tall, 16 ft. thick at base, curved front, with base about 2 - 3 ft. above normal high tide, curved reinforced concrete, concrete sidewalks, curbs, street. Roadway on top slopes back toward the top of the seawall, so another foot or so increase in elevation, and grade continues sloping back toward the top of the seawall another 100 feet or so, depending on what year the section was built.

http://www.gthcenter.org/exhibits/seawall/index.html

It's not it's first hurricane.

Edited September 12, 2008 by JT Texas

[ANYWEATHER]

i may be shot down for this comment but I dont think this storm surge will be all that bad or will it be a major disaster?

Judging by whats happened so far and these projected profiles it" is" a major disaster.

[kold weather]

A hit to the east will make a massive difference to the Bay, it the difference between many towns getting totally wiped out, and bad damage. Whilst its going to be bad no matter what, a hit where its progged is probably the difference between 20-50 deaths and 500-1000 deaths...

Current motion is about 315, thats going to aim this pretty much at the Bay, however we do need to watch for wobbles before landfall, we shall see.

IF it hits where its progged, this is going to turn out to be a very severe situation, heck the storm hasn't even started, the people who stayed are totally foolish and probably have a 50-50 chance of death IMO.

[SMU]

A hit to the east will make a massive difference to the Bay, it the difference between many towns getting totally wiped out, and bad damage. Whilst its going to be bad no matter what, a hit where its progged is probably the difference between 20-50 deaths and 500-1000 deaths...

Current motion is about 315, thats going to aim this pretty much at the Bay, however we do need to watch for wobbles before landfall, we shall see.

IF it hits where its progged, this is going to turn out to be a very severe situation, heck the storm hasn't even started, the people who stayed are totally foolish and probably have a 50-50 chance of death IMO.

~Latest VDM- as expected the core of the strongest winds in the NE quad- where I mentioned above-

URNT12 KNHC 121758

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008

A. 12/17:21:30Z

B. 27 deg 19 min N

092 deg 55 min W

C. 700 mb 2746 m

D. 63 kt

E. 208 deg 22 nm

F. 291 deg 082 kt

G. 211 deg 025 nm

H. 957 mb

I. 12 C/ 3046 m

J. 16 C/ 3047 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134/7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF301 3209A IKE1 OB 19

MAX FL TEMP 19 C 49 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 109KT NE QUAD 17:42:30Z

[ChartViewer]

A hit to the east will make a massive difference to the Bay, it the difference between many towns getting totally wiped out, and bad damage. Whilst its going to be bad no matter what, a hit where its progged is probably the difference between 20-50 deaths and 500-1000 deaths...

Current motion is about 315, thats going to aim this pretty much at the Bay, however we do need to watch for wobbles before landfall, we shall see.

IF it hits where its progged, this is going to turn out to be a very severe situation, heck the storm hasn't even started, the people who stayed are totally foolish and probably have a 50-50 chance of death IMO.

Totally agree KW........Amazing footage at khou of people taking pictures of the bay and talking to media (who do not help IMHO) that they will ride it out etc etc........The Media build it up as as entertainment then wonder why people stay to get there pics on the TV...Absolutely crackers and as you say the real surge is a while away..........

I find the whole situation there crazy and I have relatives in Austin who have been phoning to say they have seen an influx but not as much as they would have thought at this time!

[tinybill]

Totally agree KW........Amazing footage at khou of people taking pictures of the bay and talking to media (who do not help IMHO) that they will ride it out etc etc........The Media build it up as as entertainment then wonder why people stay to get there pics on the TV...Absolutely crackers and as you say the real surge is a while away..........

I find the whole situation there crazy and I have relatives in Austin who have been phoning to say they have seen an influx but not as much as they would have thought at this time!

I'm watching that they must have a death wish

[PersianPaladin]

A hit to the east will make a massive difference to the Bay, it the difference between many towns getting totally wiped out, and bad damage. Whilst its going to be bad no matter what, a hit where its progged is probably the difference between 20-50 deaths and 500-1000 deaths...

Current motion is about 315, thats going to aim this pretty much at the Bay, however we do need to watch for wobbles before landfall, we shall see.

IF it hits where its progged, this is going to turn out to be a very severe situation, heck the storm hasn't even started, the people who stayed are totally foolish and probably have a 50-50 chance of death IMO.

Depends how far a hit to the east you are talking about....remember the radius of core-winds is 200+ miles large and latest reports still confirm a WNW track.

However, I don't think this is going to be a major disaster...regardless. Levee-height is not consistent along the coast and most people have left the danger zone.

[Diane_W]

On http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

the local spokesman has just stated that the Galveston Bay which includes the Galveston Island will

become just another part of the Gulf of Mexico.

That doesn't sound good.

[tinybill]

Depends how far a hit to the east you are talking about....remember the radius of core-winds is 200+ miles large and latest reports still confirm a WNW track.

However, I don't think this is going to be a major disaster...regardless. Levee-height is not consistent along the coast and most people have left the danger zone.

persian are you listening to the tv statio a little while ago they think only half of the place has left

[kold weather]

The problem this region has not had a hurricane since 1983 so people don't really know just how severe the situation actually is. Not only that but a lot of people aren't actually aware of just how severe the surge is, this is a very unusual category-2 and some people haven't grasped just how severe the threat is, hopefully the big waves have scared people into action but from the sounds of things, many remain.

We are watching a historic hurricane, one that will be talked about for the next 100 years I suspect.

[PersianPaladin]

persian are you listening to the tv statio a little while ago they think only half of the place has left

:lol:

Good luck to them.

[robl1200]

Just been talking to a girl near Houston who is planning to ride the Hurricane out in a Trailer..thats right, a TRAILER, told her its not the best of ideas and have said to go to shelter points as soon as possible. I suspect for many it will be their first Hurricane and thus they have no idea what there in for.

[PersianPaladin]

Just been talking to a girl near Houston who is planning to ride the Hurricane out in a Trailer..thats right, a TRAILER, told her its not the best of ideas and have said to go to shelter points as soon as possible. I suspect for many it will be their first Hurricane and thus they have no idea what there in for.

Idiots.

There are STILL people out on the Galveston coast looking at the waves.

[kold weather]

Depends how far a hit to the east you are talking about....remember the radius of core-winds is 200+ miles large and latest reports still confirm a WNW track.

However, I don't think this is going to be a major disaster...regardless. Levee-height is not consistent along the coast and most people have left the danger zone.

The main threat will be the surge, the winds will be bad but thats not going to do more then 5-10% of the damage with Ike, the main story will be surge.

The highest seawall is at 17ft, yet Steve also said thats not a true height anymore thanks to erosion. The surge is estimate to be 16-17ft, therefore a good chance the surge will topple over the top of Galveston. Indeed a good part of western Galveston is already flooded to some extent.

As for people left behind, it was earlier estimated at least 30,000 have remained in the main danger zone near the Galveston region, there is probably more down the coast and in the rest of SE Texas.

This will be a huge disaster, the surge will take most houses by the coast clean out, only the foundations will remain...if anyone has decided to stay in those houses, odds are they will indeed perish. Just hope the people that were there have gone, I know for a fact that ther eis still a LOT of people left in west Galveston.

[PersianPaladin]

LOL there is a guy standing on the beach in a bear-suit.

[Roger J Smith]

Clearly a mega-disaster is about to unfold here, the wind along the coast has been parallel to shore (NE) and already the water is up ten feet, high tides are coming about 1300, 0400 and 1500 local time so we are at the first of these now, however the wind will back to SE as the centre approaches so if water holds steady for a few hours it is bound to go up to at least 18-20 feet above normal tonight. I can't see the track shifting off landfall somewhere in the Galveston Island area.

As to people staying or not heeding warnings, first point would be that the warnings were reasonably timely, it was already being strongly suggested on Wednesday afternoon to leave the coastal regions and by Thursday morning the wording was pretty stark, "people who do not leave and who stay in any sort of one or two storey structure face certain death."

There will always be people who don't believe these things, a few who don't hear or understand, and even a few who have a plan B like riding off into the storm on their jet-skis if it turns out to be so.

Probably some were fooled by the cat-2 or marginal cat-3 forecasts, thinking that a storm that "weak" would be no big deal but they didn't understand the tidal mechanics of driving half the Gulf of Mexico up onto the coastal shelf for three days; they will now appreciate that fact.

Anyway, 95% compliance in the worst affected areas and 70% in moderately affected areas further inland would be a reasonable expectation, people can't be forced to "do the right thing" and you have to realize too, not everyone has money to spend ... the area is fairly affluent so mass evacuation by bus, train and plane as in New Orleans is probably on a much smaller scale, I haven't heard it mentioned although I am not watching non-stop (yet).

Well, back to storm watching, if this thing spins down to a cat-4 then it will be even worse, but I think for all intents and purposes it hardly matters now what the final intensity at landfall is in the range of 80-120 mph, the water will be overtopping all seawalls and levees and surging far inland, have a look at google earth and see if you can find anything above 10 metres a.s.l. around Houston. :lol:

[PersianPaladin]

The main threat will be the surge, the winds will be bad but thats not going to do more then 5-10% of the damage with Ike, the main story will be surge.

The highest seawall is at 17ft, yet Steve also said thats not a true height anymore thanks to erosion. The surge is estimate to be 16-17ft, therefore a good chance the surge will topple over the top of Galveston. Indeed a good part of western Galveston is already flooded to some extent.

As for people left behind, it was earlier estimated at least 30,000 have remained in the main danger zone near the Galveston region, there is probably more down the coast and in the rest of SE Texas.

This will be a huge disaster, the surge will take most houses by the coast clean out, only the foundations will remain...if anyone has decided to stay in those houses, odds are they will indeed perish. Just hope the people that were there have gone, I know for a fact that ther eis still a LOT of people left in west Galveston.

Yes...I'm aware of that. My reference to the wind-core was basically in-relation to the associated surge and its interaction.

Damage will depend on how strong these homes are.

Edited September 12, 2008 by PersianPaladin