Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[hoghedge]

Interesting Pic... Pirates Cove apparently + TV reporting 100,000 homes may be flooded

[Jayces]

Gotta feel that freighter adrift does not have much hope.

[opplevelse]

...

The eye is now fully developed.

What on earth makes you say that? It is the most ragged sad excuse for an open eye I have seen on a cyclone! It is far from "fully developed" !

[kold weather]

By the way its NOT a 3, the met Diane is talking aobut said the Sat.estimates now support a cat-3, but offically its still a 2, though given the recon data it wouldn't surprise me if this does get upgraded still...

[opplevelse]

Opplevase...do you think this will hold out now as a Cat 3 upon landfall?

Well it has yet to be "Officially" categorised as cat 3 ... but looking at the hurricane hunter data Kold and others posted, I would think they will declar it soon.

It may or may not hit as cat 3 ... dunno, and it doesnt really matter to be honest. The winds are the secondary problem with this cane.

kold weather ... SNAP!

[weather2]

Exactly PP. Now we just need to hope and pray that the people left in the Galveston Bay region are ok, I've got a nasty feeling a lot of them will be in trouble come 6hrs time when the real storm surge and hurricane force gusts start to pick up.

The reason why people have stayed is they've become complacent, they've not had a major hurricane threat since 1983 and even then it was a small cat-3 hurricane with a surge no where near the size of Ike.

[Megamoonflake]

Stu Robinson from severe studios has got a front row seat! It's looks crazy, how long can he last it out there?? http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/strea...nson&uid=24

[PersianPaladin]

Well it has yet to be "Officially" categorised as cat 3 ... but looking at the hurricane hunter data Kold and others posted, I would think they will declar it soon.

It may or may not hit as cat 3 ... dunno, and it doesnt really matter to be honest. The winds are the secondary problem with this cane.

kold weather ... SNAP!

No it doesn't matter....purely out of meterological interest.

[Diane_W]

What on earth makes you say that? It is the most ragged sad excuse for an open eye I have seen on a cyclone! It is far from "fully developed" !

It was the meteorologist at http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

that said it. I'm just passing it on. Obviously you know better.

I bow down to your knowledge.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Diane_W

[JT Texas]

Here's the projected totals from local news once the storm passes (from abc13.com):

Projected Storm Surge Impact

*572,000 people within storm surge area

*6 drinking water plants impacted by storm surge

*34 wastewater treatment facilities impacted by storm surge

*54 Police Stations, 89 Fire Stations, and 32 Ambulance services impacted by storm surge

*10 Hospitals with more than 10 beds impacted by storm surge

*47 Nursing Homes impacted by storm surge

*7 wire centers impacted by storm surge

*140 electric power substations impacted by storm surge

*48 non-nuclear generating units impacted by surge

*10 industrial plants including oil refineries and chemical plants are co-located with 41 generators impacted by storm surge

Projected Electric Power Outage Impact

*5.2 million customers may lose power in Texas

*99 drinking water plants in electric power outage area (only 14 plants serve more than 50,000)

*More than 1,500 wastewater treatment facilities are located in electric power outage area

*799 Police Stations, 1,973 Fire Stations, and 641 Ambulance Services within electric power outage area

*256 Hospitals with more than 50 beds within electric power outage area.

*1,263 Nursing Homes within electric power outage area

Projected Petroleum and Natural Gas Sector Impacts

* 95% of Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production suspended

*1.25 million bbl/day of oil production, 6% of U.S. petroleum demand

*6.9 Bcf/day of natural gas production, 11% of U.S. daily average natural gas demand

Posted by KTRK on September 12, 2008

[kold weather]

Amazing watching fox news now and people seem to be having a hurricane party, what a stupid thing to do, I've got a feeling a few of those may not be alive this time tomorrow, I really hope I'm wrong.

By the way it does seem like Ike is a touch west of where was expected, not by muchbut 10 miles here makes a difference in the height of the surge, however in this case to put it simply, if Ike goes:

1: east of the bay: expect bad damage in the Galveston Bay region.

2: West of the bay: Extreme damage, western Galveston without the sea wall may be nearly totally gone bar the old victorian buildings which have survived other extreme hurricane.

[weather2]

But they must have read/heard the news of this particular hurricane is very different........ even I do. I just wonder why they want to stay, I'm not really critisizing them that much as I don't live there, as I said they must have in their own minds a very good reason to stay

[ChartViewer]

It was the meteorologist at http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

that said it. I'm just passing it on. Obviously you know better.

I bow down to your knowledge.

Your comment about inbreeding was poor:-)....but i like you

[Iceberg]

I wonder if we will lose any reporters........

Just watch a reporter who was bragging that they couldn't get out of the area they were in now..

Anyway, looks like intensification is still happening to me. Recon are just flying into the eye now.

[hoghedge]

I wonder if we will lose any reporters........

Just watch a reporter who was bragging that they couldn't get out of the area they were in now..

Anyway, looks like intensification is still happening to me. Recon are just flying into the eye now.

That one with the bear might be a goner....

Meanwhile....

[The PIT]

Looking windy in Bacliff but the sea still not particularly rough though. People stood around watching.

[Diane_W]

Your comment about inbreeding was poor:-)....but i like you

I live in Lowestoft, so if I don't know about inbreeding no one does.

Seriously, if you have a storm this big, and a surge this high you get out.

If you don't you're not very bright.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Diane_W

[The PIT]

I live in Lowestoft, so if I don't know about inbreeding no one does.

Seriously, if you have a storm this big, and a surge this high you get out.

If you don't you're not very bright.

Thats why they're removed from the Gene pool. Nature likes to weed you know.

Apparently 40% have stayed in Galveston.

Edited September 12, 2008 by The PIT

[kold weather]

Just heard around 40% of Galveston has stayed, if thats true then...I'm totally in shock, so many will die, this will easily be in the hundreds if not thousands if that is true when all is done.

I cannot say just how serious this is, this is a totally historic hurricane probably on a similar level to Katrina.

[Jayces]

Some 40% of Galveston's population remained behind.

It's crazy, NO was nearly completely evacuated for Gustav yet there wasn't much damage, wonder how many of the 40% were thinking that things won't be so bad?

[jemtom]

I think it's worth pointing out that not all folk on here have the same level of knowledge and understanding of Hurricanes, but that should not stop them from posting comments for the fear of ridicule.

Perhaps some of the more knowledgable members could refrain from making snide remarks to others, even if accompanied by one of these and accept that none of us know it all.

[PersianPaladin]

I think it's worth pointing out that not all folk on here have the same level of knowledge and understanding of Hurricanes, but that should not stop them from posting comments for the fear of ridicule.

Perhaps some of the more knowledgable members could refrain from making snide remarks to others, even if accompanied by one of these and accept that none of us know it all.

True.

We all learn from each other....

But tbh, I really feel odd watching these live-feeds knowing that there is nothing I can do about it. Feels voyueristic and morally questionnable.

[ChartViewer]

Just heard around 40% of Galveston has stayed, if thats true then...I'm totally in shock, so many will die, this will easily be in the hundreds if not thousands if that is true when all is done.

I cannot say just how serious this is, this is a totally historic hurricane probably on a similar level to Katrina.

Kold although you compare it to Katrina the devastation will not in a human form be as bad at all......Texas has planned for this for a long while and learned the lessons of Katrina and also NO had a dry river system and no run back to the Ocean system....Galveston and Houston have........Also they have evacuated 80% of residents compared to 50% in NO...........This will not see a human problem in the scale of Katrina.....Simply put they have learnt NOrleans lessons.....

Edited September 12, 2008 by ChartViewer

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it's worth pointing out that not all folk on here have the same level of knowledge and understanding of Hurricanes, but that should not stop them from posting comments for the fear of ridicule.

Perhaps some of the more knowledgable members could refrain from making snide remarks to others, even if accompanied by one of these and accept that none of us know it all.

Most of us on here wouldn't do that Jem, and the printed word can be difficult when it's no your first language you are typing in as some phrases don't translate too well!

Edited September 12, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[hoghedge]

True.

We all learn from each other....

But tbh, I really feel odd watching these live-feeds knowing that there is nothing I can do about it. Feels voyueristic and morally questionnable.

AT the end of the day... we are all naturally this way - and to pretend otherwise is hypocritical - watch our nearest relations the apes - they do exactly the same - It's there for the grace of God go I... and of course, we hope to learn by others mistakes

Let's not forget all the rubbernecking at any accident we ever pass....

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge