Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[PersianPaladin]

Kold although you compare it to Katrina the devastation will not in a human form be as bad at all......Texas has planned for this for a long while and learned the lessons of Katrina and also NO had a dry river system and no run back to the Ocean system....Galveston and Houston have........Also they have evacuated 80% of residents compared to 50% in NO...........This will not see a human problem in the scale of Katrina.....Simply put they have learnt NOrleans lessons.....

I agree that the water will go down quicker than it did in New Orleans....thats for sure.

But some particular areas will have nasty damage while the flood-water is there.

[The PIT]

23000 people still in Galveston if my maths is correct. Total pop 57466. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Gray-Wolf]

Kold although you compare it to Katrina the devastation will not in a human form be as bad at all......Texas has planned for this for a long while and learned the lessons of Katrina and also NO had a dry river system and no run back to the Ocean system....Galveston and Houston have........Also they have evacuated 80% of residents compared to 50% in NO...........This will not see a human problem in the scale of Katrina.....Simply put they have learnt NOrleans lessons.....

As they are finding out right now rivers need to drain and if surge blocks that option it will still back up........how long can you hold your breath for when being tumbled like a spin cycle and bashed by debris???

[Diane_W]

AT the end of the day... we are all naturally this way - and to pretend otherwise is hypocritical - watch our nearest relations the apes - they do exactly the same - It's there for the grace of God go I... and of course, we hope to learn by others mistakes

Let's not forget all the rubbernecking at any accident we ever pass....

I could agree with this but not when by staying in your house you are risking your kids lives.

[kold weather]

Kold although you compare it to Katrina the devastation will not in a human form be as bad at all......Texas has planned for this for a long while and learned the lessons of Katrina and also NO had a dry river system and no run back to the Ocean system....Galveston and Houston have........Also they have evacuated 80% of residents compared to 50% in NO...........This will not see a human problem in the scale of Katrina.....Simply put they have learnt NOrleans lessons.....

I wouldn't be so sure the mayor has just said only 60% have gotten out of the way and from what I've seen I'm really not too confident that this won't be a historic event sadly.

I'm willing to bet this tops at least 100 deaths when is all is done, and thats probably a very very optimistic guess.

By the way one person is already dead sadly, a child of 10 I believe.

Edited September 12, 2008 by kold weather

[The PIT]

Just seen a shot of someone putting a lawn mower in the back of his truck. Why?????

[ChartViewer]

23000 people still in Galveston if my maths is correct. Total pop 57466. Correct me if I'm wrong.

No total pop 59,600 and according to Local gov website 45000 evacuted...But that is a Local government source!!

[jemtom]

Most of us on here wouldn't do that Jem, and the printed word can be difficult when it's no your first language you are typing in as some phrases don't translate too well!

QUOTE (Diane_W @ 12 Sep 2008, 09:37 PM) ...

The eye is now fully developed.

What on earth makes you say that? It is the most ragged sad excuse for an open eye I have seen on a cyclone! It is far from "fully developed" !

It's stuff like the above that I refer to GW. I'm not suggesting for one minute that Opp was trying to cause offence or ridicule anyone, but this type of reponse does put off some of the less confident/competent posters, which IMO is counter productive to a forum.

[Diane_W]

QUOTE (Diane_W @ 12 Sep 2008, 09:37 PM) ...

The eye is now fully developed.

What on earth makes you say that? It is the most ragged sad excuse for an open eye I have seen on a cyclone! It is far from "fully developed" !

It's stuff like the above that I refer to GW. I'm not suggesting for one minute that Opp was trying to cause offence or ridicule anyone, but this type of reponse does put off some of the less confident/competent posters, which IMO is counter productive to a forum.

Thanks Jemtom

[ChartViewer]

Thanks Jemtom

Think he was just stating the facts maybe?

[JT Texas]

Looks like one of the rigs that was registering the highest winds (91.3 knots from the SE) has flatlined and is repeating the same info for the past couple of hours - Station 42361.

[Jayces]

Just seen a shot of someone putting a lawn mower in the back of his truck. Why?????

Guess their highest priority is to mow the lawn on their return, afterall with al that water the grass is bound to grow a lot!

[hoghedge]

I could agree with this but not when by staying in your house you are risking your kids lives.

Sure Diane - I agree, but most of the people watching are not in that situation - and who can say with hand on heart they are not at all voyeuristic in these situations?

rather like any disaster, we all watch it unfold with intensity, and of course most of us feel truly sorry for those who are suffering, but still glued to the disaster, the images and drama of it all..

[grab my graupel]

Can we just move on now people, please

Brian

[Roger J Smith]

In terms of Galveston and people who stayed, don't forget that 10-20 per cent of the population probably live in high rise apartment buildings, they will survive but face a few days without electricity, and the floodwaters should drain out of the city fairly quickly by Sunday or so. The real variable in my estimation is how far into mainland urban areas the storm floods, it will tend to be a vast sea of water with the houses covered to the tops of first floor windows and doors but the waters will recede there within a day or two, however, some homes will be extensively damaged by wind as well on the present track.

I would say that casualties from this could vary from 100 to 10,000. Those are probably the lower and upper limits given what we know now. The damage will probably rival Katrina, well into tens of billions.

This is all unless there was a last-minute swerve or total collapse but even there the water will rise considerably higher than now. I don't see any chance of those things happening and will say conservatively 1,000 deaths could result here. Let's hope that is wildly pessimistic and not optimistic.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Nasa Pic

Holy Moly

[kold weather]

Got to agree with your assessment Roger, hopefully our fears won't come true but I agree this will at least cause 100 deaths I suspect if we are being optimistic...I can't repeat how much I hope I am totally out of the ballpark now.

I heard a ballpark figure of around 50 billion dollars for damage which sadly sounds about right on Ike's current course.

[Iceberg]

Winds are starting to move towards the eye which is another sign of strengthening.

202630 2830N 09301W 6968 02861 9682 +127 +080 127099 100 079 000 00

Other than this the recon has stopped transmitting, bloody thing...

[hoghedge]

When is the next advisory?

Sorry.. I'll answer myself NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[The PIT]

Ach I see sense of humour not allowed.

Amazingly people still putting garbage cans out for refuse collection. Garden furniture left out. They don't really think it's a normal day do they.

Listening ABC Local. I wouldn't like the place where that reporter on the sea wall will be weathering the storm out. Too close to the sea front for me.

[JT Texas]

When is the next advisory?

Here it is:

WTNT44 KNHC 122031

TCDAT4

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF

IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE

WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL

INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS

STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE

LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE

ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART

TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH

TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS

THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL

WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL

BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST

AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE

DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD

CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER

TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT

BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE

EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN

ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE

FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER

LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON

ISLAND.

[Iceberg]

Now, however it's already out of date as it has the pressure at 955 when 951 has just been recorded.

203700 2759N 09321W 6968 02755 9518 +177 +080 087013 014 033 000 03

203730 2757N 09321W 6963 02757 9509 +187 +080 085008 010 030 000 00

203800 2755N 09321W 6969 02756 9513 +186 +080 109004 006 030 000 03

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO

NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO

PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT

FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...

INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 93.5W AT 12/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

[SMU]

Worryingly the storm is now intensifying- a combination of eyewall nearly completed, a smaller windfeild has got the central Pressure down to 950Mb again-

Its pretty much irrelevant OTHER than the effect of the winds across the Higher Buildings which will be potentially higher in the eyewall & for some Structures 10-15 MPH is the difference between total collapse & withstanding the storm...

S

Edited September 12, 2008 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Right as part of a test run, I've opened a new thread which is desinged for the Human aspect of hurricane Ike:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49499

That thread is to be used to talk about the evacuations, the flooding, the damage to property and other such topics.

This thread is now to be used solely on the weather side of Ike, for example, chat about recon, about the strength.

I accept there may be some overloop between the two topics however we will move posts that are obviously related to the other thread.

Thank you.

Edited September 12, 2008 by kold weather

[PersianPaladin]

Even when Ike enters downtown Houston; it will still be a Category 2 hurricane according to forecasters.

So 100mph winds plus flooding will not be a pleasant experience for that area.