Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[Roger J Smith]

The storm took out two automated wind sites east of Galveston at Rollover Bay and High Island, so I suspect 100-120 mph winds in that area. Storm chasers have reported 110 mph gusts around the east side of Galveston Bay where there are no weather reporting sites. I could believe that there are 50 ft waves in the Gulf south of High Island because there was a similar report with Katrina in the same position relative to the track.

The CNN reporter at the Galveston seawall is now reporting very strong west winds and the water is still coming in over the seawall (17 ft asl), with the general situation quite dire in Galveston from all reports, water is up to second storey levels in some parts.

Power is out for more than half the five million people in greater Houston.

[hoghedge]

Thanks RJS

KHOU reporting - 40 mile wide eye, current gust of 110mph coming into Galveston, and is expected to last 24 hours over Houston due to its size. Bayou's are starting to overflow. 8 inches of rain - could be up to 12 inches today. 953mb and talking about the peak of the surge being now reached @ 12 - 15 ft'sh

which is good news I would have thought

Edited September 13, 2008 by hoghedge

[opplevelse]

But the reported winds were supposed to be sustained at 80-90knots or higher. None of the remaining AWS' are reporting anything close to that? Seems a little odd to me. There are currently no stations above 50knts sustained.

Sorry 55knts (62mph-100kph) with gusts to 84mph (74knts)

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport

13 03:53 SE 62 G 84 1.00 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy SCT013 BKN017 OVC022 76 76 29.02 982.7 0.30 0.37

[Matty M]

But the reported winds were supposed to be sustained at 80-90knots or higher. None of the remaining AWS' are reporting anything close to that? Seems a little odd to me. There are currently no stations above 50knts sustained.

Sorry 55knts (62mph-100kph) with gusts to 84mph (74knts)

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport

13 03:53 SE 62 G 84 1.00 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy SCT013 BKN017 OVC022 76 76 29.02 982.7 0.30 0.37

Its seems like its always like that with canes, the reported wind is never as intense as the sustained wind forecast, the gusts occasionally reach that however.

[Katherine]

sorry but noone answers me

Don't worry - nobody's yet answered my question about why I periodically have this computer glitch that leaves me unable to view GIFs, JPEGs, PNGs or BMPs.....

[hoghedge]

Anyone got a good current doppler of the eye ?

[opplevelse]

Anyone got a good current doppler of the eye ?

Google is your friend

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...11&loop=yes

[hoghedge]

Google is your friend

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...11&loop=yes

Yes I've seen that one thanks opple - I'm tryiing to spot if the eye will go over Bush Airport, as friend is asking when it will be them

[opplevelse]

Seems like a pile of AWS have gone offline just as the storm went through. Probably due to loss of power. Most of them have back up batteries so are probably still recording but it may take a few days to get the results.

It will be interesting to see what the final observations are. The highest gust we saw offshore was 108.8knts (at 122m AMSL) yesterday

Yes I've seen that one thanks opple - I'm tryiing to spot if the eye will go over Bush Airport, as friend is asking when it will be them

Ummm ok, all you asked for was a good dopler of the eye, which is what I posted. Where is Bush Airport?

Edited September 13, 2008 by opplevelse

[kold weather]

Looks like the southern eyewall beefed up as it has come onland, just sweeping through Galveston. Looking at the IR there was a big burst in the southern and western eyewalls which is probably the worst thing that could have happened. Western eyewall also looking pretty well defined over houston right now, probably giving 100mph gusts I'd imagine.

[hoghedge]

Ummm ok, all you asked for was a good dopler of the eye, which is what I posted. Where is Bush Airport?

Sorry, should have been more specific - Bush Airport N/E of downtown near humble

[opplevelse]

Sorry, should have been more specific - Bush Airport N/E of downtown near humble

Then that is the best you are going to get I\m afraid (and that is still a hell of a lot better than we have here in Norway!)

[Jayces]

Don't worry - nobody's yet answered my question about why I periodically have this computer glitch that leaves me unable to view GIFs, JPEGs, PNGs or BMPs.....

If you get little boxes with red crosses in then it's probably your browser blocking them from being displayed.IF you are using IE go to tools, internet options, advanced and scrol down and look for a setting that says display pictures and make sure it's ticked.

[Diane_W]

Quite interesting watching the coverage on http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042

as the building their in is now damaged and water is pouring in all over the place.

Edited September 13, 2008 by Diane_W

[Nick F]

Can see the eye is roughly near Lake Houston just NE of the City:

1100 BST (1000UTC) had the eye at around 971mb just N of Galveston and S of Houston, obviously it has moved N since then, waiting for the next hourly update:

[Nick F]

Some tornado warnings on the eastern side of the hurricane, where there is strong low-level shear. Tornado suggested by doppler reflectivity over southeastern TX moving at 91 mph!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

555 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES...KIRBYVILLE...JASPER...BUNA...

WESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES CALL...

EASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES...TOWN BLUFF...ROCKLAND...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 555 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF

BUNA...MOVING NORTH AT 91 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

CALL BY 600 AM CDT...

KIRBYVILLE BY 605 AM CDT...

9 MILES EAST OF TOWN BLUFF BY 610 AM CDT...

JASPER BY 615 AM CDT...

[wallopweather]

storm chasers live from texas http://thestormreport.com/livetrack.php/

[Cookie]

I Have just caught up with all this, thanks for all the great updates guys :lol:

[mettalfabrik]

this from OPC, the latest forecast for ike as the remnent reaches the eastern seaboard

990

AGNT40 KWNM 140605

MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

205 AM EDT SUN 14 SEP 2008

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE MOST SIG WX FEATURE IS STIL XPCTD TO

BE THE REMNANT LOW OF WHAT IS NOW T.S. IKE. THE 00Z NAM IS SIGLY

FASTER (AND DEEPER) WITH ITS FCST REMNANT LOW VS ITS PREV 18Z

RUN AND IN COMPARISON TO THE 00Z GFS/UKMET...12Z ECMWF...AND THE

LATEST NHC ADVSRY LOOKS TOO FAST AND WL BE DISREGARDED. PLAN ON

FAVORING THE 00Z GFS FCST TRACK/STRENGTH FOR THIS REMNANT LOW

WHICH IS STRONGLY SPRTD BY THE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z

GEFS ENSEMBLE FCSTS. LATE TONITE AND EARLY MON THE 00Z NAM/GFS

BOTH CONT TO FCST GALE FORCE SWLY BL WINDS DVLPG ACRS THE GULF

OF MAINE INADVOF THE ASCD COLD FRONT. CONSIDERING THAT THESE

GALE FORCE SW BL WINDS WL BE IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER

REL COOL SST/S AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW

LEVEL MIXING WULD NORMALLY NOT ISSUE A GALE WRNG (BUT AT THE

SAME TIME WULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS AT THE

ELEVATED C-MANS MDRM1 AND MISM1). BUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING A

FORMER T.S....THE 00Z NAM FCSTG A DEEPER LOW...AND COORD WITH

HPC CANNOT RULE OUT ANY GALES (ESPEC SINCE THE LATEST NHC ADVSRY

HAS ASCD GALE FORCE WINDS). SO WL CONT TO FCST MARGINAL GALES

DVLPG ACRS THE NE MOST GULF OF MAINE LATE TONITE/EARLY MON.

OTHERWISE NO SIG SHORT TERM CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR

FCST PACKAGE RGRDG THIS SYSTEM.

[Roger J Smith]

What's left of Ike as of 07z today is a 995 mb low near Ottawa moving rapidly northeast, should be off the southern tip of Greenland within 72 hours. The weather in southern Ontario, Ohio and upstate New York today was windy and very warm, not a lot of rain left, but some gusts to 60 mph. Winds from SW turn NW very quickly and temperature drops from 27 C to 12 C in a matter of three hours, so the low is now extra-tropical.