Hurricane Ike---Human Impact

[kold weather]

Curfew now in effect in some parts of Texas already by the way, probably the best reason for that is tokeep everyone inside, which is good because if anyone is outside there now they are risking it.

[Roger J Smith]

Good idea to have this thread. If anyone in the storm impact area is reading this, keep in mind that the current high water is despite a wind almost offshore (NNE) and the maximum storm surge will come after landfall when winds swing around to SE then SSW and push all the high water back towards shore with high tides also. The full moon is on Monday so astronomical high tides are already quite high.

In other words, if the water is almost over the Galveston seawall now, it will very likely be pouring into the city after midnight tonight, as well as spreading in from the bay and lagoons behind the city, and this also applies to many other lower lying areas. And the sea will become rougher at that time to make the total reach of the waves as high as 30-35 feet.

The hurricane is showing some signs of a last-minute intensification and I am fully expecting this to be very severe tonight.

[The Eagle]

Good idea to have this thread. If anyone in the storm impact area is reading this, keep in mind that the current high water is despite a wind almost offshore (NNE) and the maximum storm surge will come after landfall when winds swing around to SE then SSW and push all the high water back towards shore with high tides also. The full moon is on Monday so astronomical high tides are already quite high.

In other words, if the water is almost over the Galveston seawall now, it will very likely be pouring into the city after midnight tonight, as well as spreading in from the bay and lagoons behind the city, and this also applies to many other lower lying areas. And the sea will become rougher at that time to make the total reach of the waves as high as 30-35 feet.

The hurricane is showing some signs of a last-minute intensification and I am fully expecting this to be very severe tonight.

Has it regained Cat 3 status yet? Cat 2 is not that severe (relatively) so primarily the tidal effect seems of most concern. Wind speed seems secondary atm.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Darkman

[kaz]

i cant imagine how those men on the stricken ship feel i would be scared beyond reason, to be out there on the sea in this with no power to control it, i know its the size of 2 football pitches but if it gets hit side on by a massive freak wave it will go over. its way to scary to think about being out there in the dark sends shivers up my spine.

kaz x

Edited September 12, 2008 by kaz

[hoghedge]

Hi any one know how far inland the effects of Ike will be felt, my sister lives in San Antonio, she was told to prepare for high winds and flash floods etc, can't raise her atm, I am sure she will be ok but I still worry

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i47_gl2.gif is the best I've seen Courtesy of KW info

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[kold weather]

I agree Roger we are looking at the city of Galveston being flooded, just how long is probably not much of a matter now, given the surge will soon increase again as Ike comes inland.

The thing to note is right now the tide is going down as we reach the low tide but once we reach 12am their time the tide rises again, thats when the flooding of Galveston and probably a big part of the Galveston bay coastal regions will happen.

by the way I just heard that the local government expecting damages of around 85 billion dollars, about the same as Katrina!

[Roger J Smith]

I think it will be low end cat-3, DM, the offshore buoys are unfortunately being put out of commission by the storm and they have either late or unreliable reports, at the moment the eye is more prominent and the central pressure seems to have dropped again. If this were a cat-4 strong or cat-5 then the effects would be catastrophic beyond anything I would want to think about, but a medium cat-3 would be quite nasty too. The thing is, most buildings likely to sustain wind damage are also likely to sustain battering wave or surge damage, so it's a moot point as to the wind risk to buildings, the stronger, higher or better protected buildings are also better protected from water.

[The Eagle]

I think it will be low end cat-3, DM, the offshore buoys are unfortunately being put out of commission by the storm and they have either late or unreliable reports, at the moment the eye is more prominent and the central pressure seems to have dropped again. If this were a cat-4 strong or cat-5 then the effects would be catastrophic beyond anything I would want to think about, but a medium cat-3 would be quite nasty too. The thing is, most buildings likely to sustain wind damage are also likely to sustain battering wave or surge damage, so it's a moot point as to the wind risk to buildings, the stronger, higher or better protected buildings are also better protected from water.

Thanks RJ. Hopefully the area is spared the worst though could be some harsh headlines in the morning unfortunately. Have to it still looks spectacular on Sattelite.

[hoghedge]

Ahem....

[kold weather]

Sadly I suspect that was repeated many many times as people have left it till the very last minute when it looked like it wasn't going to miss them.

[hoghedge]

"Senator Cornyn just said the damages could run upwards of $85 billion"

I just wonder....what with the state of the economy ... how this is all going to play out on the markets... I know it's kind of irrelevant when we're talking about people and lives, but still...

[dave48]

Fox news reporting that people who have stayed are being told to write their social security number on their arm and the security services are leaving at 9pm.

[hoghedge]

Dave.. that's terrible, what does that say?

On Sky, fellow over in Johnson Space Center (20 miles inland)... he was standing in 2 ft of water already.....

Surge map again...

and sat

Edited September 12, 2008 by hoghedge

[hoghedge]

Friend lives over by Bush Airport (Houston Airport), @ 1830 says kids are out and about, skys are starting to look grey now, but no rain to talk of....

[kold weather]

Hearing that there is already some flooding occuring in baytown and thats still 4-6hrs before the highest of the surge comes in and also the tide starts to come back in again.

By the way the tide is starting to increase just a little now again, tide bottoms out within the hour then starts to slowly increase.

Edited September 12, 2008 by kold weather

[androcles]

I am glued to this...

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

...and we moan about our weather...!

Andy

[rc28]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

4 live streams from local media.

[I can't believe it's not better]

Good idea to have this thread. If anyone in the storm impact area is reading this, keep in mind that the current high water is despite a wind almost offshore (NNE) and the maximum storm surge will come after landfall when winds swing around to SE then SSW and push all the high water back towards shore with high tides also. The full moon is on Monday so astronomical high tides are already quite high.

In other words, if the water is almost over the Galveston seawall now, it will very likely be pouring into the city after midnight tonight, as well as spreading in from the bay and lagoons behind the city, and this also applies to many other lower lying areas. And the sea will become rougher at that time to make the total reach of the waves as high as 30-35 feet.

The hurricane is showing some signs of a last-minute intensification and I am fully expecting this to be very severe tonight.

The moon isn't going to play much of a part in this, strong as the moons pull is obviously.

[hoghedge]

Report: 15 trapped on church roof on Bolivar Peninsula

KHOU-TV is reporting that 15 people who had lashed themselves together are stranded on a church roof on the Bolivar Peninsula.

Earlier today a Coast Guard helicopter crew plucked 60 people from the peninsula town of High Island after the only road out was flooded.

(A Coast Guard helicopter flies over High Island on the Bolivar Peninsula. Photo by David J. Phillip, AP>)

[hoghedge]

Friend now reporting 78mph gusts up by airport - says Galveston under water now - and has to shout to be heard over the wind

[kold weather]

Looks like the surge is starting to pile back in again, data suggests the tide is increasing again so looks like low tide has passed and is on the increase, plus the system is getting close now and so the surge is pushing in.

Wouldn't be all that surprised to see the Seawall getting over topped soon and the waves spilling well inland.

[hoghedge]

Galveston now in the dark - where is everyone ?

[androcles]

Here...

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015

[hoghedge]

Think I prefer KHOU - Just mentioning that Ike is 600 miles wide ..

See officials asking people to write their social security no on their arms in some areas !!...

[JT Texas]

Actually, they're afraid it will float off. Seriously.

Just had to add this pic - someone has tied their tree to a car so the tree won't blow away