Global Cooling

[Gray-Wolf]

As a whole aside from the 'big debate' I have to support Chris in his plea.

Our society is ever more fragmented with families strewn across the country/planet.

Be a good human being and make yourself known to your elderly neighbours.

Let them know that you're not 'freaks' and do care about them and that you will be there for them (without hassel or shame for them) should they need.

If nothing else it'll make you feel more comfortable when you are where they are today.

Edited September 19, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[laserguy]

As a whole aside from the 'big debate' I have to support Chris in his plea.

Our society is ever more fragmented with families strewn across the country/planet.

Be a good human being and make yourself known to your elderly neighbours.

Let them know that you're not 'freaks' and do care about them and that you will be there for them (without hassel or shame for them) should they need.

If nothing else it'll make you feel more comfortable when you are where they are today.

. Four little smileys can't paint a thousand words,but...

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

ive already posted these stats in the global warming thread , just wanted to post them in this thread too

Hope this works {my statas for the North East since 2001

===================================================

...........WINTER..........SPRING...........SUMMER..........AUTUMN

2001...........................5.91C...............13.66C...........9.91C

2002....5.08C...............8.08C..............14.33C............10.0C

2003....3.91C...............8.25C...............14.75C...........9.16C

2004.....5.0C................8.25C................13.91C..........8.91C

2005.....4.33C..............7.25C.................14.8C............9.33C

2006.....2.66C..............6.66C.................14.75C...........10.58C

2007.....4.41C..............8.08C.................13.08C............9.41C

2008.....4.5C................5.83C.................10.31C....................

As you can see by looking at these stats, i feel that since 2006 the summer and Autumn have got cooler whilst winter has warmed [the only blip was spring this year where it cooled {well same summer really]

Basically i think by looking at these stats there is a cycle somewhere

nigel

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's all very well providing point-scoring links that take up one extreme position or the other, but for every link that "disproves" anthropogenic global warming there is another link that "proves" it.

Same can be said about the other way too TWS. Looking at recent posts one would think that AGW is now a given....it isn't

Also warmists have adopted the term Climate change, why? Is it because things are starting to NOT go the warmist way.....I think so.

BFTP

Edited September 20, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting article

http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/arti...px?RsrcID=35857

BFTP

[weather eater]

Interesting article

http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/arti...px?RsrcID=35857

BFTP

By a geologist and a unspecified scientist in the pay of the US army. Trouble is you can find anything you want on the web that will say anything you want and that includes both sides of the argument, but still no one has really produced a set of figures that prove a long term cooling trend is on the way.

It all reminds me of a python sketch

A. Is this the right room for and argument?

B. I've told you once

A. No you haven’t

B. Yes I have

And so on

A. An argument is a collective series of statements made to establish a proposition

B. No it isn't

A. Yes it is

B. No it isn’t

A Yes it is, it not just saying no it isn’t

B. If I argue with you I must take up contrary position

A. But that’s not just saying no it isn’t

B. Can be

The argument here is that we all know the worlds been warming up, at a guess 95% of skeptics would admit that. First question is it being influenced by us or is it natural and two, is there now a real cooling trend taking place. Now if you or any one else can prove this cooling trend please attempt to do so by stating the evidence from qualified bodies, not just some obscure scientist out in Minnesota a geologist and a clever soldier. As I pointed out I am not a warmist (whatever that is) I would love for you to be right but fear you are badly mistaken. Never mind the science sheer common sense tells me we are interfering with the ecology of the planet at our peril like a plague of locusts in a crop field

As for laserguy diatribe I’ll get on to that when I’ve got a spare hour or so to decipher it.

[SnowBear]

.."obscure scientist"....to be a scientist don't you have to be qualified? We have had all these arguments before...totally pointless..when is a scientist is a scientist? And when are they not? And isnt the records held in the rocks and other things from other areas of science, the very records we are trying to get a handle on what is going on and used to construct the models we use to predict the future??

[weather eater]

And isnt the records held in the rocks and other things from other areas of science, the very records we are trying to get a handle on what is going on and used to construct the models we use to predict the future??

Funny that, because that’s exactly what the scientists who put forward the theory of AGW did they constructed their models and made a prediction about the future which many people on this site are rubbishing. So why believe another set of scientists who say the opposite. What I would suggest is that people are mainly seeing what they want to believe is the truth and what in fact most of us want to believe and that is that we are not on board a runaway train. Consequently what we are seeing on this thread is a lot of rubbishing of other people by certain people without presenting any real evidence of their own that will stand up to rigorous debate.

[Mondy]

Please, please...a plea....

.........

.....DO NOT USE CAPITALS when referring to agw.

Thanks

[laserguy]

As for laserguy diatribe I'll get on to that when I've got a spare hour or so to decipher it.

So looking forward to that. If you're having trouble deciphering my 'diatribe',little wonder you're so lost re agw.

[0000]

Ok,question.................if you believe in global warming how much do you think the temp' will go up by 2025 and if your ilk is global cooling the same question and date?

just wonder if the average between the two opposing camps means nothing changes

[Android]

Climate is like a sleeping dog that we are poking. Stable for now but prone to sudden changes in state.

If you keep poking it maybe it will just stay in it's drowsy state and even if it does wake up maybe it will be friendly. On the otherhand it could change state by jumping up and biting you. I would weigh up the two scenarios and decide whether poking it is worth the risk.

I don't agree that "climate change" is a new replacement term for global warming. Climate change covers a lot more than just temperature, and besides it's what the last two letters of IPCC stand for and that isn't new.

[weather eater]

So looking forward to that. If you're having trouble deciphering my 'diatribe',little wonder you're so lost re agw.

Ho ho if I am lost help me find the way, show me the evidence of global cooling and not just snipe. Perhaps diatribe was the wrong word, ramble would be nearer the mark.

[osmposm]

Please, please...a plea........DO NOT USE CAPITALS when referring to agw.

Thanks

Yeah, I know...because capitals are only for important things. That joke's getting a bit boring now, DXR, I think we got it last time you made it at the beginning of August.

Personally,I refute it for no other reason than I can clearly,so blindingly clearly see it for the incredible scam that it is. I've nothing whatsoever to gain out of my stance,but me being me can't stand aside whilst wrong is being done. I'd like to think that is what drives most sceptics/deniers too.

How wonderful it would be to have your brilliant clarity of vision, LG, and to be so absolutely certain as you about what is or is not going on in our climate. Most of us, though, try and understand by the more prosaic method of reading as much evidence & expert discussion as we can. And most of us, too, find the matter very complex, full of contradictions, and pretty confusing: we struggle even to come to an 'as-of-now-most-likely' conclusion. But we do try, in sincerity - and that's what leads me and plenty of others to our concerns.

It may be hard for you to accept, but most passionate AGWers I know of have an equally deep determination as you not to "stand aside whilst wrong is being done" - it's just that the 'wrong' we're worried about is possibly irrepairably damaging the planet we live on. It is possible that we're wrong, and there's absolutely nothing to worry about, but please don't assume that we're all either stupid, or gullible, or have something to gain from being on the bandwagon.

PS I'm sure it's just the 'flu, Barrie, but I'm afraid the post was a bit rambling and diatribe-like, what with its excursions into the idleness of the masses, beer-making, your wife, the BBC'c secret subsidies, the cost of the Olympics, etc, etc.

Edited September 21, 2008 by osmposm

[Roger J Smith]

It has been quite cold for two weeks now in the Canadian arctic and south towards Hudson Bay -- temperatures have been running 3-5 degrees below normal. This seems like a good sign for the global cooling argument because this is a region that would normally turn cold ahead of other regions

[Iceberg]

As somebody who support the AGW theory I don't subsribe to the idea that Warming is bad per se. I believe this is true of most climate scientists who look at it from a geopolitical POV.

Alot of studies have been published that show that 1C of Warming is on balance beneficial. However and I hope the Anti AGW Pikeman understand this It is a complete red herring. ! !.

The important term is on balance, there are areas notibly in Africa and Asia who will be much worse off.Is it right that the West can pollute the planet gain the benefits and say SOD off to many of the poorer people of the world ?.

The second reason is that if AGW is above 2C of warming there is very little (no evidence that I have seen that this will be benefitial).

The third reason is the tipping point theory which we know exists throughout nature. Mankind might not have time to respond to climate changes as they happen very quickly.

The final reason is one of stewardship By increasing temperatures even 1C we will have an effect on nature(whether you believe the 1M quote is irrelavent) there will still be a big effect.

I think the Anti AGW'ers should stick(sorry start) defending by proving the science incorrect.

[Iceberg]

Roger it is true that parts of Canada are below average but Looking at a couple of sites such as resolution and around the Hudson most are still +.5C for the 30 day average so I am not sure this means much.

Other than that Canada can still get cold.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It has been quite cold for two weeks now in the Canadian arctic and south towards Hudson Bay -- temperatures have been running 3-5 degrees below normal. This seems like a good sign for the global cooling argument because this is a region that would normally turn cold ahead of other regions

Hi Roger

Early rebound starting? Interesting to see if the ECM European outlook comes to fruition because it looks lke getting pretty cool in 7-10 days with a juicy Greenland HP developing and trough over Scandi. I think NH wise this winter will be more notable and colder......except the UK of course :lol:

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Arctic Rebound

As we saw last year 're-freeze' ,with so much open water to still and freeze, is a differing process to the old stylee refreeze with plenty of perennial ice to act as a catalyst for further freeze. This year we also have the likes of fragmented Markham bobbling north of Greenland/Ellesmere island acting like huge whisks keeping the surface well broken as the 5 storey chunks drift through, and smash up, forming pack.

Even with cooling (were it to occur) we cannot rely on our outdated 'experience' of refreeze to plot it's progress.........I for one will watch with interest as things progress this year esp. for the reappearence of those huge crevasses that the Canadian Coastgaurds spotted for us last year.

Warm out isn't it?

[laserguy]

How wonderful it would be to have your brilliant clarity of vision, LG......

I know,Ossie,I know. It's not right and it's not fair but only a few of us are blessed with such a gift :o .

[Thundery wintry showers]

As somebody who support the AGW theory I don't subsribe to the idea that Warming is bad per se. I believe this is true of most climate scientists who look at it from a geopolitical POV.

...

Well, as a climate scientist (PhD student anyway), I can confirm that this post broadly corresponds to a view I've had for quite some time- namely that a warming of 1C or so could probably be coped with quite comfortably, but I doubt we'd cope very well with a much larger warming, say 3 to 5C.

The main problem is that the IPCC scenarios that suggest a warming of just 1 or 2C rely upon very low emissions scenarios- scenarios that, given social inertia processes, are unlikely to develop fully for at least another few decades. And certainly, a "business as usual" scenario- the scenario that the IPCC and the like want to heavily advise against- is mostly associated with high degree of change (the uncertainty range for the High Emissions Scenario was 2.4 to 6.4C of warming if I remember rightly).

The issue of finite fossil fuel resources will provide a constraint, but something tells me we've got enough reserves there to generate a "High Emissions Scenario" for at least the next half-century, so we can't depend on that to solve any anthropogenic influences in a "business as usual" scenario. Not to mention the huge economic recession we'd have once we'd used most of them up, but that's a whole different issue.

[Gray-Wolf]

The issue of finite fossil fuel resources will provide a constraint, but something tells me we've got enough reserves there to generate a "High Emissions Scenario" for at least the next half-century, so we can't depend on that to solve any anthropogenic influences in a "business as usual" scenario. Not to mention the huge economic recession we'd have once we'd used most of them up, but that's a whole different issue.

Addiction is a terrible thing and we are so addicted to our high energy lifestyles in the first world that we will continue with our normal 'fix' (which increases over time as we habitualise to our current dosage).

Check out your front room. When you last had your electrickery updated they gave you as many sockets as they thought was 'reasonable' for you to need.......so how many 4/6/8 gang extensions are into every outlet at the mo?

Every addict knows the horror of 'withdrawal' and so find it very difficult to move themselves into a position where this may occur. If pushed/cajouled/helped they may start to slowly reduce their 'fix' and so escape the 'horrors'.......but where's the fun/buzz in that???

Our worst energy addict 'culprits' will tell you that no-one is going to make them live back in the stone age (and then they'll launch into a diatribe about tree hugging so an' so's) so as to deflect what is socialy needed into a 'personal' issue.

Edited September 23, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[noggin]

Check out your front room. When you last had your electrickery updated they gave you as many sockets as they thought was 'reasonable' for you to need.......so how many 4/6/8 gang extensions are into every outlet at the mo?

None. Myself and my family are very energy-conscious. G-W, not everyone is an energy-gobbling numpty, y'know. A lot of people do care about these issues, for various reasons. Some might do it for financial reasons, others to reduce their "pollution footprint" or to preserve Earth's precious resources.

There are lots of caring people about....honest!

[Gray-Wolf]

Methane released in the Arctic could raise global temperatures

By Jessica Salter

Last Updated: 6:01am BST 23/09/2008

Millions of tons of methane stored beneath the Arctic seabed is bubbling up to the surface and being released into the atmosphere as the region warms up and the ice retreats, scientists have said.

The gas is said to be 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide and scientists have warned that it could accelerate global warming.

It is usually locked in a deep freeze below the sea, but as the ice melts on the surface, small holes, or "chimneys", appear and the gas escapes.

Orjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University in Sweden, who is onboard the Russian research ship Jacob Smirnitskyi, said: "Yesterday for the first time we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface."

He told The Independent that the team were documenting the "methane chimneys" using an echo sounder and seismic instruments.

Scientists believe that underground stores of methane have in the past been responsible for rapid rises in global temperatures, changes in the climate and even extinction of species.

They think that the amount of methane being released from the area of the Arctic along the Siberian continental shelf could equal the emissions from the rest of the world's oceans put together.

The preliminary findings of the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008 are being prepared for publication by the American Geophysical Union.

The Arctic region has risen in temperature by 39.2F (4C) over recent decades according to scientists.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

more proof of cooling???????????

Edited September 23, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

Check out your front room. When you last had your electrickery updated they gave you as many sockets as they thought was 'reasonable' for you to need.......so how many 4/6/8 gang extensions are into every outlet at the mo?

Two lamps with energy saving bulbs, a telly, digi box, DVD player and an hi-fi. Used for a few hours in the evening, combination of either TV & digi box or TV & DVD or just hi-fi. Not exactly energy guzzling and I'm pretty sure that's fairly representative of most folks homes.