METO Winter 08/09

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Eyes down for the 25th Sept' at 10am

Hopefully !!

[kippure]

Eyes down for the 25th Sept' at 10am

Hopefully !!

Its a thursday And i cant wait, hopefully its a cold harsh winter this year.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Aha, now that will be interesting. cheers TONA!

[Frosty.]

Its a thursday And i cant wait, hopefully its a cold harsh winter this year.

Cold harsh winter in Canada maybe but the uk is so used to mild bland winter's I can't see any reason to suggest otherwise.

[Nick L]

Ah why does it have to be a Thursday! The one day I cannot get access to a computer during the day. What do I do instead? I have to do A Level maths and further maths from 9 til 4 *shudders*.

Ah well. I reckon it will be roughly the same as last year - "Mild, but not as mild as the previous". That way they have covered their backs!

[lesta_snow]

Ah why does it have to be a Thursday! The one day I cannot get access to a computer during the day. What do I do instead? I have to do A Level maths and further maths from 9 til 4 *shudders*.

Ah well. I reckon it will be roughly the same as last year - "Mild, but not as mild as the previous". That way they have covered their backs!

I agree they will say the same as last year because if it is cold no one will be really complaning but if its just mild no one will say anything.

so they will say the same as last year just to be safe.

[azores92]

I agree they will say the same as last year because if it is cold no one will be really complaning but if its just mild no one will say anything.

so they will say the same as last year just to be safe.

well i remain optimistic, yes we have been made idiots of in recent years with an average of one "acceptable" snow event per winter here in the midlands, but little more. however, cold air is flooding down onto mainland europe and i believe this is a sign of things to come in the months ahead. ok, so the likelihood of a 1963 winter is 1 in a million, but i do remain hopeful and optimistic of a chilly 'un for a change. fingers crossed the met office really go for it in their forecast for a cold winter!

[Geordiesnow]

I don't agree with those who are saying the Met Office only predict a mild winter because they are covering there backs while infact alot of data of SST's in the Pacific for example get taken into account and therefore the Met Office makes a prediction of what the data is telling them.

Even if the Met Office say it will be colder than average winter, does that really mean much? it means nothing to me as they could be wrong and if they say this winter will be mild it does not mean the winter will actually be mild.

[shuggee]

My prediction:

Indications are that the mean winter temperature for western Europe will be above the long term 30 year average. For the British Isles this is expected to mean that it will be above average, but less mild than the winter of 2007/08.

[Don]

My prediction:

Indications are that the mean winter temperature for western Europe will be above the long term 30 year average. For the British Isles this is expected to mean that it will be above average, but less mild than the winter of 2007/08.

That would be pretty much my prediction for their forecast too!

[Stuart]

we will find out soon

[TEITS]

Why wait until the 25th when I can tell you now.

Early indications show over W Europe including the UK mean temperatures are likely to be near or above average. Rainfall totals are likely to be near or above average. Although temperatures are likely to be above average it will be colder than last winter.

It will be interesting to see how close this is come Sep 25th

[MAF]

lets not forget Autumn has still to come and there will be an update from the Met Office.

The autumn forecast will next be updated at 10 a.m. on 24 September 2008.

Edited September 19, 2008 by Mick

[stewfox]

Why wait until the 25th when I can tell you now.

Early indications show over W Europe including the UK mean temperatures are likely to be near or above average. Rainfall totals are likely to be near or above average. Although temperatures are likely to be above average it will be colder than last winter.

It will be interesting to see how close this is come Sep 25th

I'll try and be more accurate

Early indications show over W Europe including the UK mean temperatures are likely to be below near or above average. Rainfall totals are likely to be below near or above average. Although temperatures are likely to be above below or near average it will be colder or wamer or the same as last winter.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I have to do A Level maths and further maths from 9 til 4 *shudders*.

Hells teeth, you must have been a bad lad in a previous life

Interesting to compare it to Paul's forecast today. But as TEITS points out, we can make a rough stab at it today and probably be in about 90% agreement !!

[johnholmes]

final comment in this thread from me

Quite why Met bother with this, when on a supposedly knowledgable weather related site as NW is, we routinely get the rather silly comments about it I do not know.

They produce it, not really for the likes of us, but its a spin off from the commercially orientated side where sensible people make sensible judgements on what they are given.

The product is a scientific piece of work from a group of highly respected meteorologists with what is seen as a cost effective product by many organisations responsible for estimates of all manner of products several months in advance.

Some of the comments this thread produces each season are pretty daft and I make no apology for the use of that term.

I am no total defender of the UK Met, anyone who reads my forecast comments on any thread will see that, but I am no longer going to comment into this thread.

[VillagePlank]

Some of the comments this thread produces each season are pretty daft and I make no apology for the use of that term.

What do you mean? Are you sure you don't relish comments like the winter is over ?

[TEITS]

I am no total defender of the UK Met, anyone who reads my forecast comments on any thread will see that, but I am no longer going to comment into this thread.

Come on John most of us including myself are just having a laugh and didn't mean for our posts to be taken seriously.

Im looking forward to reading whether the Met O think our winter will be below, near, above average or all three

[Anti-Mild]

Come on John most of us including myself are just having a laugh and didn't mean for our posts to be taken seriously.

Im looking forward to reading whether the Met O think our winter will be below, near, above average or all three

I always look forward to reading the Met Office's thoughts, even though they tend to be a bit vague.

If, as the Sun suggested, they are going for a colder than average winter, obviously they saw something in their May SST analysis that leads them to think that as it clearly is not the form horse.

[Geordiesnow]

One and half an hours till the big announcement, Not all that bothered what they got to say because the weather has the final say at the end of the day.

[VillagePlank]

At the end of the day, when all is said and done (and many other cliches!) ....

The MetO forecast today is at the cutting edge of determinism. That they acknowledge stochastic practices, too, (SST at the end of May) are a complete credit to them.

And yes, it is true, the winter is over.

Edited September 25, 2008 by VillagePlank

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

Above normal - *groan*, but lower than last year.

[Anti-Mild]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

Above normal - *groan*, but lower than last year.

Well that was worth the wait!!

Seriously, you could have read shuggee's prediction last week and saved yourself the bother!!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I have to admit, i'm not sure why people read said forecasts if they're not prepared to accept all outcomes.

Colder than last year...i'll take that as a postive

[SteveB]

Well with Net-Weather & now Met Office Winter forcasts, I see nothing to get excited about for this coming Winter.

I need below average temps to get snow in my location. Slightly above just means rain.