METO Winter 08/09

[Azores Hi]

Seriously, you could have read shuggee's prediction last week and saved yourself the bother!!

Or read the forecast from this time last year, it said much the same thing really. Here is what they said:

Early indications for Winter 2007/8 (December, January and February)

Temperature

Last winter was exceptionally warm over much of Europe and the second warmest on record for the UK. The signal from the statistical method suggests Winter 2007/8 is likely to be less mild for Europe as a whole than 2006/7. For western Europe, including the UK, indications favour temperatures less mild than last year, but still above the 1971-2000 normal.

Rainfall

Above-normal precipitation was experienced over the UK last winter with 130% of the long-term UK average. Early indications suggest that Winter 2007/8 is likely to be closer to normal

It's very difficult to draw conclusions from such a forecast , so from that point of view I can't really see the value of it

This page is probably more help which I believe shows a strong signal for above average temperatures over the north Atlantic. Make of that what you will.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Also worth remembering that average doesnt mean 'all the time'.

I havent read anything yet, but an average often has something below, and something above.

Nothing to suggest at the moment we wont get any decent cold spells.

Actually having a quick scout over the forecast, perhaps we are looking at a greater high pressure influence over the period (i.e. lower than average rainfall), but with it potentially being in the wrong place (i.e. above average temps).

Edited September 25, 2008 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[TEITS]

Well I wasn't far off with my prediction!

The only difference is the Met O have been brave and predicted above average instead of below, near, above. The rainfall prediction is obviously vague with no prediction whatsoever.

Seriously though if you were running a business that was dependant on the weather would that forecast help?

[Paul]

It's not meant to help business owners TEITS, it's a brief public version of a more full forecast which business owners can purchase if they need it.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

I think with these things perhaps what is not said can be important as what is actually said, if you see what I mean! You have to do a certain amount of 'reading between the lines' here and I for one definitely detect an air of real uncertainty or hesitancy about this forecast. Whereas in past years their forecast has been fairly confident of 'an above average winter' this year I get the impression much less so this year.

Time will obviously tell but I see no reason to deviate from my original punt in another thread for this winter. Close to the long-term average with several decent cold snaps, the like of which we haven't seen for a number of years. (the METO puts this possibility in the 35% bracket - greater than a 1 in 3 chance of being right and given the nature of weather forecasting I'll take those odds!)

Lets see how they modify this in October.

[bazookabob]

Hmm it does seem to be absolutely identical to last year's forecast, with perhaps some subtle differences in language. Which horrifically could mean this winter will be identical to last winter where temperatures are indeed above average but also turn out to be as mild as the previous winter, and rainfall is indeed above average, but by just as much as last year! Oh well on that basis I'll go for snow on January third and again in the first and last weekend of the easter holidays!

[karyo]

This page is probably more help which I believe shows a strong signal for above average temperatures over the north Atlantic. Make of that what you will.

I have to say, the above chart makes my stomach turn. A complete absence of below average temperatures from the entire continent!

My advice for this winter is expect very little and hopefully one or two nice surprises might happen!

Karyo

Edited September 25, 2008 by karyo

[Frosty.]

Well that was worth the wait!!

Seriously, you could have read shuggee's prediction last week and saved yourself the bother!!

It was exactly what I expected, the chances of us ever getting a below average or even average winter again are slim to zero. If we get anything approaching 05/06 it will be worthwhile, I think that shows how my expectations have lowered. :lol:

[skifreak]

I agree with the similarity to last years forecast, it said it would be milder than avg but cooler than 2007, so we're trending in a more promising direction here.

Seasonal averages don't always mean a huge amount for Scottish Snowsports, it's not necessarily the weather we get, but the order that we get it in that is often critical. That said, something broadly similar to last winter but maybe even a bit cooler (hopefully with the cooler bit coming from losing the worst mild soakings!) would be very welcome indeed for Scottish Winter Sports (not just developed snowsports). :lol:

[Snowly does it]

I have to say, the above chart makes my stomach turn. A complete absence of below average temperatures from the entire continent!

My advice for this winter is expect very little and hopefully one or two nice surprises might happen!

Karyo

What it shows though is % chance of colder or warmer than average - not deviation from average - it shows about 60/40 in favour of warmer than average - those are pretty good odds in a warming trend I'd say! Same chance of colder than average as guessing 3 toin cosses out of 5 correctly.....

It implies a strong possibility of warmer temps around SW iceland/Greenland coast - would this imply HP or LP? And is a warmer sea around there good or bad for UK winter prospects?

[TEITS]

What I find rather puzzling is this. If there isn't any clear signal for the precip amounts then how can make a forecast about the temps. If the winter experiences below average rainfall then this would have a knock on effect on the temps i.e colder, whereas above average rainfall is likely to see warmer temps.

[Azores Hi]

Seasonal average temperatures over Europe/UK are now often warmer than 1971-2000 averages as a result of recent climate trends, and the underlying influence of such trends is included in this forecast.

Are they basically saying that they have taken GW into account and essentially adjusted the forecast accordingly? Or is "recent climate trends" more open to interpretation than that?

[Yeti]

What it shows though is % chance of colder or warmer than average - not deviation from average - it shows about 60/40 in favour of warmer than average - those are pretty good odds in a warming trend I'd say! Same chance of colder than average as guessing 3 toin cosses out of 5 correctly.....

It implies a strong possibility of warmer temps around SW iceland/Greenland coast - would this imply HP or LP? And is a warmer sea around there good or bad for UK winter prospects?

Surely high temps around Greenland/Iceland would be disastrous for any returning PM spell as this is where the air passes over? It would be such events "just the wrong side of marginal" (a phrase which I am sure will be used millions of times this winter! :lol: )

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Well what a surprise! - My forecast of what they would forecast temperature wise was spot on as well :lol: - one things for sure they are not gonna be spot on every winter and hopefully it will go the shape of the pear this winter, we'll probably have a very mild one lol!

[Don]

Oh dear... Not looking good. Still early days mind.

:lol:

[Dublin Novice]

I'll continue to keep looking at this:

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

and hope that blue swathe continues to build and move westwards over the coming weeks!

[VillagePlank]

What I find rather puzzling is this. If there isn't any clear signal for the precip amounts then how can make a forecast about the temps. If the winter experiences below average rainfall then this would have a knock on effect on the temps i.e colder, whereas above average rainfall is likely to see warmer temps.

Statistical correlation based on boundary values.

[david16]

I'll continue to keep looking at this:

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

and hope that blue swathe continues to build and move westwards over the coming weeks!

Very interesting bottom map, that's for sure.

The British isles predicted to be at or below the season average this coming week.

Can it last or intensify I wonder as we get closer to and into winter.

Looking at the Unisys SST anomolies. Some blue east of greenland. Possibly if that spreads eastwards onto the icelandic coasts and intensifies, there will be less chance of the icelandic low forming then dominating proceedings entirely in an icelandic low and azores/bartlett/euro high combination as we go through the winter months.

The greenland high saying hello to the scandinavian high for more than just the occasional brief glimmer wouild be a very welcome boost for the UK this coming winter.

Edited September 25, 2008 by david16

[Nick F]

Looking at the Unisys SST anomolies. Some blue east of greenland. Possibly if that spreads eastwards onto the icelandic coasts and intensifies, there will be less chance of the icelandic low forming then dominating proceedings entirely in an icelandic low and azores/bartlett/euro high combination as we go through the winter months.

The greenland high saying hello to the scandinavian high for more than just the occasional brief glimmer wouild be a very welcome boost for the UK this coming winter.

The relationship between North Atlantic SSTs and surface pressure is alot more complex than that, although warm seas will tend to 'modify' cold flows, steep air temperature gradients around Iceland/Greenland tends to determine more the spawning deep lows rather than SST anomalies. In fact - I'd go as far as to say persistent warm SST anomalies south and east of Greenland, would over longer term, feedback to the atmosphere as a +ve 500mb heights response and thus high pressure - given the warming upwards of the atmosphere. Infact warm anomalies have been rather persistent at times to the north of the UK over the last month and the high latitude +ve 500mb anomalies and blocking we've seen *maybe* a response to this.

However, the coupled ocean-atmosphere response can be complicated further by other teleconection factors overiding the SST signal.

[cyclonic happiness]

IMO it's a good and promising forecast, there aren't many details, which is good and it seems to be saying we will have a slightly above averige winter.

The whole year has been slightly above averige, these things take time to get back to normal and hopefully will be bang on next year and maybe below the year after.

The whole point of living is about waiting.

But, what if the CET in december is 20'c and january is -20c lol!! :lol:

Edited September 25, 2008 by cyclonic happiness

[Optimus Prime]

I don't think this year has been slightly above average temperature wise, it's still a very warm year just less so than anything since 2001.

Seems like a decent forecast this early on. They usually get things right. Mild winter looks like a high possibility.

[mcweather]

I think the rather bland Meto Forecast actually leaves a lot of room for manouvre. It would be quite easy to have a decent two week cold and snowy spell in Jan or Feb, which lets face it would keep most people on here happy, and yet still have a slightly above average winter overall.

The forecast doesn't pick up on anything extreme, but then a forecast as broad brush as the Meto forecast wouldn't have highlighted something like the extreme spell of early Jan 1987 at this stage anyway. Its not built to do that. its designed to give a very broad balance of probabilities and potentials and nothing more than that.

We all get excited every year thinking the Meto might go for something outrageous for a change but they are never going to in a million years. Even if the signs all pointed to genuinely cold winter it would still be couched in terms of

'' conditions suggest a winter less mild than the 71-2000 average." because that is the way they work and in all fairness to them long range seasonal forecasting is only ever going to be done on balance of probabilities.

By its very nature, balance of probability forecasting is never going to pick up on unusual or extreme events because thats not what it is designed to do. In the end it comes down to where the highs and lows put themselves on any particular day or in any particular week and that's why despite this rather bland Meto forecast we will still be glued to the charts this coming winter.

I think we will be pleasantly surprised at times this winter. Happy weather watching everyone

[Terminal Moraine]

Some people are becoming far too despondent on the strength of the Met' Office forecast. It needs to be borne in mind that the winter forecast is the interpretation of the early signals from a whole host of parameters which could affect the way the winter unfolds.

We're always reminding ourselves not to get too up/down in reaction to the charts 200 hours or so ahead on the latest model runs let alone on a whole season whose start date is still two months away; there are a multitude of things which could, and will, change between now and then, so it's important to retain a sense of perspective.

The forecast is a very generalised overview of how things are expected to average out, it can't be expected to anything other than that when it's almost impossible to forecast any sort of detail even 10 days ahead, and anyway half the fun of waiting for the coming season is looking out for the unexpected and seeing how unforseen events affect things further down the line.

I'll be keeping an eye on the Met' Office winter forecast updates as they are brought out but I'll also be keeping in mind that it is a forecast and a very long distance one at that.

[azores92]

Some people are becoming far too despondent on the strength of the Met' Office forecast. It needs to be borne in mind that the winter forecast is the interpretation of the early signals from a whole host of parameters which could affect the way the winter unfolds.

We're always reminding ourselves not to get too up/down in reaction to the charts 200 hours or so ahead on the latest model runs let alone on a whole season whose start date is still two months away; there are a multitude of things which could, and will, change between now and then, so it's important to retain a sense of perspective.

The forecast is a very generalised overview of how things are expected to average out, it can't be expected to anything other than that when it's almost impossible to forecast any sort of detail even 10 days ahead, and anyway half the fun of waiting for the coming season is looking out for the unexpected and seeing how unforseen events affect things further down the line.

I'll be keeping an eye on the Met' Office winter forecast updates as they are brought out but I'll also be keeping in mind that it is a forecast and a very long distance one at that.

the fun of winter isnt about saying because it is mild, it is a complete write off. the fun is looking out for possible snow events from a northerly or easterly incursion, despite the winter forecast, being disappointed, but having plenty of opportunities. on an annual basis there has been one decent snowfall here in the midlands. also, bear in mind there are 5 months for the snow to fall in, so there is bags of time. anyway, the met office could have it wrong, so lets not treat it as gospel.

[The watcher]

Like I said before, they'll play it safe and dabble around the average no matter what Indications are tossed their way. But what can we expect, there is no mission of any kind of severe cold or warmth being predicted from this far out. We all know that anything can happen in the next 2 months so don't lose faith no matter what prospects you wished for.

Edited September 25, 2008 by The watcher