Daily Express at it again

[stormchaser1]

I also agree with Blast from the past , ive been watching these dates for quite some time now , and ive also mentioned these dates in the past , as Blast from the Past mentioned Perigee and Full moon clash , Perigee on the 14th and Full moon on the 13th , of this month

ALSO ONE DEFINATELY TOO WATCH WILL BE IN DECEMBER .. DECEMBER 12TH PERIGEE AND ALSO DECEMBER 12TH FULL MOON SO im expecting strong winds around these dates too Also these coincide with the spring tides

nigel

Edited November 3, 2008 by stormchaser1

[Snow Queen one]

I would trust BFTP and others on here far more than the Daily Express. I only brought this to peoples attn because i thought that the wording about the LP was over the top as Piers does not put any detail on it and they had to mention the met forecaster who did.

[MAF]

I like the Daily Express, don't dis it Tttaaaa

i dont think SQ1 is "dissing" it. as pointed out, the report is one of a few that would be better off not been publixhed with such dramatic grammer. the majority of sensible people will disregard the report. but there are a few who may take it seriously enough to be worried about things. totally not fair or right that that should be done to people.

I would trust BFTP and others on here far more than the Daily Express. I only brought this to peoples attn because i thought that the wording about the LP was over the top as Piers does not put any detail on it and they had to mention the met forecaster who did.

thank you for doing so SQ1

[Geordiesnow]

How many times has the DE say big storms and harsh winters coming up only too be prooven inaccurate, none of the output is suggesting there is a big storm on the way either.

They could of corse be proven to be accurate but can they not publish there sort of stories nearer the time otherwise Joe Public who does read these articles might actually believe them and might contact Michael Fish too see if there is a hurricane on the way. Seriously though, until there is proof that there is storms on the way surely these sort of stories should not be published so far out?.

Edited November 3, 2008 by Geordiesnow

[cj114]

Piers Corbyn, the David Ike of the weather world.

[Mammatus]

Piers Corbyn, the David Ike of the weather world.

Piers Corbyn is a very good and extremely accurated weather forecaster. Lets be fair here and stop disin peops................ :lol:

Ttttaaaaaa B)

[Guest]

Oh for goodness sake..............

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/62132/...wipe-out-winter

Why isn't there a law against newspapers printing this utter rubbish ???

We all know what the Express is like in this respect - I think it is called freedom of speech - and whilst I agree that the printing of such articles is irresponsible, to have a law against it would be the thin end of the wedge and if this were to continue where would it end? For instance, somebody like Michael Fish getting done for saying we are not going to have a hurricane in October 1987?

Weather forecasting is such an inexact science so that very often one person's guess, especially in the medium to long term, is as good as anothers, though the experts with all their data to hand have a slight advantage. However, a lot of it comes down to when you put a pot on to boil and guessing where the first bubble is going to form. I used to like Foggit (he had a column in the Sunday Express) who foretold the weather by the natural things he found around. The trouble was that by the time it came for the forecast to come into fruition, I'd forgotten what he said in the first place.

I think most of us will read these articles with some form of amusement but realise it for the crap that it is.

On an anectdotal basis, referring to later contributions on this thread, I have noticed that the weather often changes at a full moon.

:lol:

[Guest Daniel]

Since every one seems to be having ago I sall have a go at winter pridiction as well just for fun. I am calling for this comming winter to be one of the worst ever recorded on the same level as 1683/84 or 1740. these were the two worst winters of the last little ice age. Why I am calling for such a winter. Well sun is going through a very quite phase at present and this forcast is based on that. I think that this comming would be as cold as 1683/84. this is when the last time the sun was in a major quite phase. I expect the severe cold to start around the 16th of December this year with a bitter arctic wind and polar lows comming down bringing major snowfall to most of the U.K. many places would be cut of and the snows would be the worst in living menory. by day temps will be at round freezing and could well fall below -10 at night over central and southern England. then a huge blocking high will form to the north bringing in a strong freezing east wind of a frozen Europe all away from Russia. this would last all through Dec making it the coldest ion record. Jan though would be the key cold month with an average mean of -3C It would be so cold temps on some nights to fall as low as -20 in England and the U.K would be snowbound. Rivers will be frozen hard with ice on the Thames in the heart of London. even the seas would freeze. Day after day the massive northern block of high will remain in place feeding in bitter East winds. The sever weather would last until at last the seound half of Feb were it may well end. March 2009 would though be a freezing cold month. Of course I could be wrong and this is fun. But my for cast is based on the sun being quite which in my view increases the odds of such a winter occuring again. It has happened before and there were many severe ones in the last little ice. So its not out the question.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Daniel

Nice to see you are still getting funding

Anyway, just a question. What was your prediction for last winter?

[Guest Daniel]

Hi Daniel

Nice to see you are still getting funding

Anyway, just a question. What was your prediction for last winter?

I dont think that I made any pridication. As for last year the sun wasnt such a high issue. But since then we seen an amazing quite phase which could in time lead to major change towards cooling as when the next sunspot cycle begins it could well be very much weaker than normal, I am now forcasting winter weather on this. Like I said I could be wrong but for the first time I really do belive that this major change in the sun increases the odds of of a very severe winter. After all they occured many times in the last little ice age when the sun was in a quite phase.

[johnholmes]

oh dear; another regular genie out of the icebox has appeared!

Edited November 5, 2008 by johnholmes

[Nick F]

I dont think that I made any pridication. As for last year the sun wasnt such a high issue. But since then we seen an amazing quite phase which could in time lead to major change towards cooling as when the next sunspot cycle begins it could well be very much weaker than normal, I am now forcasting winter weather on this. Like I said I could be wrong but for the first time I really do belive that this major change in the sun increases the odds of of a very severe winter. After all they occured many times in the last little ice age when the sun was in a quite phase.

Don't want to sound like a teacher, but have you ever thought about using a spell checker? Don't you mean quiet rather than quite for example. Some paragraphing in your forecast on the last page would make it easier on the eye too.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I also agree with Blast from the past , ive been watching these dates for quite some time now , and ive also mentioned these dates in the past , as Blast from the Past mentioned Perigee and Full moon clash , Perigee on the 14th and Full moon on the 13th , of this month

ALSO ONE DEFINATELY TOO WATCH WILL BE IN DECEMBER .. DECEMBER 12TH PERIGEE AND ALSO DECEMBER 12TH FULL MOON SO im expecting strong winds around these dates too Also these coincide with the spring tides

nigel

Agreed Nigel

That will be in my winter forecast and one that RJS and I have spoken about recently.

SQ1 thank you for kind words.

Damien.....we are not in a true minima yet. If one happens it will be solar cycle 25 around 2030 so no 16 blooming 84 or whatever!

BFTP

[Terminal Moraine]

I think that this comming would be as cold as 1683/84. this is when the last time the sun was in a major quite phase. I expect the severe cold to start around the 16th of December this year with a bitter arctic wind and polar lows comming down bringing major snowfall to most of the U.K. many places would be cut of and the snows would be the worst in living menory. by day temps will be at round freezing and could well fall below -10 at night over central and southern England. then a huge blocking high will form to the north bringing in a strong freezing east wind of a frozen Europe all away from Russia. this would last all through Dec making it the coldest ion record. Jan though would be the key cold month with an average mean of -3C It would be so cold temps on some nights to fall as low as -20 in England and the U.K would be snowbound. Rivers will be frozen hard with ice on the Thames in the heart of London. even the seas would freeze. Day after day the massive northern block of high will remain in place feeding in bitter East winds. The sever weather would last until at last the seound half of Feb were it may well end. March 2009 would though be a freezing cold month. Of course I could be wrong and this is fun. But my for cast is based on the sun being quite which in my view increases the odds of such a winter occuring again. It has happened before and there were many severe ones in the last little ice. So its not out the question.

Daniel, much as I would like your musings to be correct I feel this is more of a desperate hopecast than a forecast, despite the sun being in quiescent mode at present, and I am 99.999% sure that you will be disappointed.

Just for the record I very much doubt that even a repeat of the winter of 1684 would freeze the Thames in the heart of London as it is a very different river now compared to 320 odd years ago.

[azores92]

Daniel, much as I would like your musings to be correct I feel this is more of a desperate hopecast than a forecast, despite the sun being in quiescent mode at present, and I am 99.999% sure that you will be disappointed.

Just for the record I very much doubt that even a repeat of the winter of 1684 would freeze the Thames in the heart of London as it is a very different river now compared to 320 odd years ago.

remind me, was the thames barrier installed before 1684?

Edited November 5, 2008 by azores92

[Essan]

remind me, was the thames barrier installed before 1684?

No. But old London Bridge was. And the Thames was a veritable sewer back in the old days. It froze for the same reason a stagnant pond still freezes today. To freeze the Thames today sufficient for people to hold ice fairs on it would take the coldest winter in over 12,000 years.

Well i got the Daily Express today for it's headline about veg and on page 11 piers corben is at it again.

The title reads

Stand by for a 90mph battering.

Weatheraction say that we are in for "severe storms and artic weather this month. they say that experts warn that two 2once in 20 years2 mega storms could strike weatheraction says fierce conditions at sea will cause gales and tsunami like waves to funnel down the east coast of Britain.

Actually, Piers said nothing of the sort. The Daily Express made all that up. You can't even trust them to quote Piers accurately these days!

[cj114]

Don't want to sound like a teacher, but have you ever thought about using a spell checker? Don't you mean quiet rather than quite for example. Some paragraphing in your forecast on the last page would make it easier on the eye too.

Phew! Thank you for pointing that out. I found the posts very hard to read. I know that spelling does not seem to be useful any longer, but I for one find such bad spelling unreadable.

It also looks as if the person writing is rather dim too. [no offence] lol

[Guest Daniel]

remind me, was the thames barrier installed before 1684?

Like I said this is a fun forcast since others have been doing it. But I hold the view that we will see return to very sever little ice age style winters soon due to the sun being in a very quite phase. Some experts are pridicting an another little ice age in the comming years and I feel the change will really bite after 2010. As for the Thames. the Thame in London can freeze again even if not firm enough for people to walk on as it did in 1895. there was no ice on the Thames in London due to warm water from power stations in the 20th century. But they have gone and A really sever winter could see the Thames covered in Ice again and the River out side London Frozen soild. Until the sun return to normal I really do think that the risk of very server winters if not this comming winter will strike again soon and as history shows they can hit without any warning. All it take is a huge high to form in the North which would feed in freezing polar winds or east winds from Russia. If the high becomes blocking there the making of a terrible winter.

[azores92]

essan i was only joking about the thames barrier , hence the chuckling face. the barrier is a 20th century invention.

[acbrixton]

Daniel, your forecasts are always entertaining and impressively consistent.

There are however a couple of points where I wonder if you might clarify the forecast:

1. Is it your expectation that in central London the Thames will freeze over completely although ice thickness will be insufficient to allow crossing by foot? If so that would be the first time since the Thames was embanked and the old London Bridge demolished in the second quarter of the 19th century; even in 1895 there were only ice floes in central London i.e. the Thames was not frozen over;

2. You expect the freezing over to happen "soon" and "after 2010"; could you please tell us by which year you expect this to happen, e.g. are you confident that this will happen by, say, 2015 at the latest?

regards

ACB

[cheeky_monkey]

Like I said this is a fun forcast since others have been doing it. But I hold the view that we will see return to very sever little ice age style winters soon due to the sun being in a very quite phase. Some experts are pridicting an another little ice age in the comming years and I feel the change will really bite after 2010. As for the Thames. the Thame in London can freeze again even if not firm enough for people to walk on as it did in 1895. there was no ice on the Thames in London due to warm water from power stations in the 20th century. But they have gone and A really sever winter could see the Thames covered in Ice again and the River out side London Frozen soild. Until the sun return to normal I really do think that the risk of very server winters if not this comming winter will strike again soon and as history shows they can hit without any warning. All it take is a huge high to form in the North which would feed in freezing polar winds or east winds from Russia. If the high becomes blocking there the making of a terrible winter.

how many times??..didnt you used to post in the past few years each year about the north atlantic drift shutting down and expect a really bad winter like those of the little ice age if not this one then in the next couple of years.

now it is becuase the sun is has gone into a quiet phase we get the same old forecast

its like talking about tomorrow..because tomorrow never comes and yesterday has always been!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

how many times??..didnt you used to post in the past few years each year about the north atlantic drift shutting down and expect a really bad winter like those of the little ice age if not this one then in the next couple of years.

now it is becuase the sun is has gone into a quiet phase we get the same old forecast

its like talking about tomorrow..because tomorrow never comes and yesterday has always been!

Aye, but since LRFs are pretty much a bit of fun anyway, at least this a whole lot more entertaining than:

December: A generally Atlantic influenced month, with one or two colder spells likely, one around mid-month for one or two days (probably a toppling high giving a brief northerly), and one after Xmas to end the month (probably a small HP drifting across us from a displaced Azores high). Temperatures average

January: A generally Atlantic influenced month, with one cold spell likely, again around mid-month, and again from a toppling high and brief northerly). Temperatures just above average

February: A generally Atlantic influenced month, with one or two colder spells likely, one early in the month a fizzling southerly tracking low over N.France, and one towards the end of the month from a brief two day easterly, although not very cold due to higher SSTs in the North Sea. So, temperatures about average

I know which one is more likely, but I know which one is more fun to read !!!!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Piers Corbyn is a very good and extremely accurated weather forecaster. Lets be fair here and stop disin peops................

Ttttaaaaaa B)

Think you might have to defend this very good Forecaster Gavin, I am sitting here in T-Shirt and Shorts today, temperatures are nearly 61f and there is not a breath of Wind!

A joke Forecaster and a Joke Newspaper :o

Paul S

I have picked up on the same peak energy period mid Nov. Lunar Perigee and full moon combine and I agree a significant LP/storm is likely...mainly northern UK.

BFTP

Any updates on this Blast ?? Looks like Piers is using very similar techniques to yourself, what went wrong this month ??

Not a dig, just a question that needs answering

Paul S

[stewfox]

No. But old London Bridge was. And the Thames was a veritable sewer back in the old days. It froze for the same reason a stagnant pond still freezes today. To freeze the Thames today sufficient for people to hold ice fairs on it would take the coldest winter in over 12,000 years.

Actually, Piers said nothing of the sort. The Daily Express made all that up. You can't even trust them to quote Piers accurately these days!

It flows much faster now of course. However I think less warm water is dumped into it from pumping stations etc cf 1950s

1976 there was ice at the end of the thames

For the Thames to freeze over it would at present require a very cold winter but not as bad as say for it to freeze cira 1950s Maybe a 1 in 300 winter ?

My forcast the winter 2008/9

Nights will lengthen until about 3rd week December and then shorten there after

The BBC will say cira 18th December whats the forcast for xmas day ?? There then show a blank screen (as they did one year) and say we dont know yet

[pottyprof]

Think you might have to defend this very good Forecaster Gavin, I am sitting here in T-Shirt and Shorts today, temperatures are nearly 61f and there is not a breath of Wind!

A joke Forecaster and a Joke Newspaper

Paul S

Nice to know your still trying to get yer legs tanned Mr Sheman..

But you know his forecast is going to be correct...............

at some point in the future anyway............

B)