Typhoon Hagupit

Somerset Squall · September 19, 2008

A new tropical storm has formed, far out to the east of the Philippines. The centre is pretty well defined but convection is currently being sheared to the southwest of the LLC. However, shear is expected to ease, sea temps will remain warm and outflow will improve as an anticyclone settles to the north of the system. Because of this, 18W is expected to become a typhoon prior to landfall in Luzon, in around three days time. Tracking may obviously change but this is the current scenario forecast be both the JTWC and the JMA.

Edited September 19, 2008 by Somerset Squall

Somerset Squall · September 19, 2008

18W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hagupit, with an intensity of 40kts. Convection has become more concentrated over the centre as shear eases. Luzon could well have a pretty strong typhoon next week to deal with, as conditions are expected to be favourable. JTWC are forecasting Hagupit to be a 105kt, cat 3 typhoon by 120hrs in the vicinity of Luzon and Taiwan. One to watch.

Somerset Squall · September 19, 2008

Hagupit is spinning up very nicely, now at 50kts. Banding features are very good and further quick strengthening is antipated as Hagupit is move over some really hot waters now (in excess of 30C) and shear is expected to remain low. Could be a typhoon as early as tomorrow morning if organisational trends continue.

Cookie · September 19, 2008

my first update

Storm Alert issued at 19 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 96 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Somerset Squall · September 20, 2008

Hagupit has only gained 5kts in intensity today, and has been affected by moderate northerly shear. The LLC has been partially exposed at times, however, banding features have remained good and now convection is firing up over the centre again. Intensity forecasts are now not as agressive as earlier due to the moderate shear, but this shouldn't stop Hagupit slowly intensifying. Hagupit may pass northeast of Luzon, but it's likely to bring some severe weather nonetheless. Next stop China? Still uncertain at the moment so needs watching.

Cookie · September 20, 2008

latest update for you mate

Storm Alert issued at 20 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Somerset Squall · September 20, 2008

latest update for you mate

Cheers Cookie.

Interesting to note the higher landfall probabilties in Taiwan than China. This corresponds with a possible recurve scenario (Hagupit moving northeastwards) but at the moment I think a continued northwestwards heading towards China is more likely as the subtropical steering ridge to the north remains strong and should block a poleward turn IMO. Who knows though? We all know how unpredictable tropical cyclones are!

Somerset Squall · September 21, 2008

Intensity has been increased to 60kts and looking at satellite imagery I think Hagupit will be upgraded to a typhoon this afternoon has an eye is now emerging. Further strengthening is likely with ocean heat content and sea surface temps being high, shear decreasing and outflow remaining good. Track has bent slightly to the left (or south) again with landfall near Hong Kong. However, as JTWC notes, any further southwards shift in response to the stronger ridge to the north will keep Hagupit over water longer and will cause landfall in Hainan Island or the east coast of Vietnam instead.

As I mentioned earlier, an eye is also appearing. This is indicative of Hagupit being very near typhoon status if it's not already. Certainly looks a lot better than yesterday with a lot more convection tightly wound around the centre and a more symmetrical look to the storm too with convection fairly evenly distributed. This could be a sign that the northerly shear affecting Hagupit yesterday is easing, therefore intensification may be a little faster over the next 48 hours than the previous 24. Beyond 72 hours, land interaction will significantly weaken Hagupit causing dissipation in 120 hours. As I noted earlier though, this is largely dependent on eventual track and any southwards jog will mean Hagupit will be over water longer, and consquently will delay final dissipation of the system.

Somerset Squall · September 21, 2008

Hagupit is now a 65kt, cat 1 typhoon. The forecast hasn't changed and landfall is still progged to be around Hong Kong as a cat 1. Hagupit is forecast to peak at cat 3 but should weaken prior to landfall primarily due to decreased ocean heat content near the coast of China.

Cookie · September 21, 2008

could this system cause a lot of damage and death?

storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2008 12:00 GMT
Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Macau
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Somerset Squall · September 21, 2008

could this system cause a lot of damage and death?

The potential is always there with any tropical cyclone, obviously the stonger generally means more danger but as we all know even weak systems can kill particularly if they hit a vunerable area. The area has already been hit by Neoguri, Nuri, Kammuri and Fengshen so Hong Kong really could be doing without this one but the area is used to landfalling tropical cyclones. That's not to say death and damage can be avoided though.

Cookie · September 21, 2008

thanks mate

Somerset Squall · September 21, 2008

As I mentioned earlier, shear has eased over Hagupit and it now seems like the typhoon is intensifying more rapidly. The eye is becoming better defined and intensity has been increased to 75kts. JTWC expect a peak of 100kts but this may be conservative. I wouldn't like to say just how high Hagupit will go but ingredients are there for something a little stornger possibily. Track forecast hasn't changed with landfall near Hong Kong the most likely option.

Cookie · September 21, 2008

do you think it will reach super typhoon?

new update

Storm Alert issued at 21 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Cookie · September 22, 2008

this system is over the philippines

Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

Somerset Squall · September 22, 2008

this system is over the philippines

It's actually just north of the Philippines but yes, hurricane force winds are being experienced there currently. Hagupit has continued to strengthen today and is now a cat 3 with an intensity of 100kts. As to whether it will become a super typhoon? Unlikely I reckon, as outflow is becoming restricted, shear is increasing and ocean heat content is lessening. Hong Kong still in the firing line for a cat 1 hit.

Cookie · September 22, 2008

ok thanks for the update mate :o

Somerset Squall · September 23, 2008

Hagupit has continued to move west-northwestwards towards Hong Kong. Intensity has increased to 105kts and it looks like Hagupit may be stronger at landfall now as the predicted weakening has not yet materialised. Hagupit is a large system with a lot of rain attached to it, the situation does not look good for Southern China. Hagupit is forcast to drag it's heels across the coastline which could cause some very large rainfall totals, not to mention wind damage at first. Hainan Island is also likely to experience some severe weather in the next few days. Hagupit may weaken to a remnant low by the time it reaches Northern Vietnam but it may still cause heavy rainfall here.

Somerset Squall · September 23, 2008

Image of the entire West Pacific:

opplevelse · September 23, 2008

Latest IR and WV images show the eye breaking down somewhat with a big insertion of dry air. Looks like the land is beginning to have some effect

Somerset Squall · September 23, 2008

Latest IR and WV images show the eye breaking down somewhat with a big insertion of dry air. Looks like the land is beginning to have some effect

Indeed, Hagupit looks like it has begun weakening now as predicted. Will probably be a cat 2 at landfall I reckon which will occur late tonight or early tomorrow our time.

Thanks for that image Opplevelse, certainly shows the deterioration well.

Edited September 23, 2008 by Somerset Squall

Somerset Squall · September 23, 2008

Hagupit has battled the dry air and has strengthened against all odds. Hagupit's impressive outflow has enabled him to mix out the dry air the typhoon was ingesting from China. The eye looks much more defined and intensity has been increased to 120kts, making Hagupit an extremley dangerous category 4 typhoon. The southern coast of China, Hainan Island and even Northern Vietnam should be bracing themselves for Hagupit's arrival. As you can see in the sat pic below, the eye is not far off the coast and powerful winds and torrential rains are already being felt inland.

Cookie · September 23, 2008

new update

Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 100% currently
Macau
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

Somerset Squall · September 24, 2008

Hagupit is now rapidly weakening inland and JTWC has issued a final advisory. 4 are confirmed dead so far, this may rise in the coming days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080923/wl_as...gweathertyphoon

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