Super Typhoon Jangmi

[Somerset Squall]

TS 19W has formed, just north of the island of Guam, out to the east of the Philippines. The system has rapidly consolidated and there is good banding with deep convection persisting over the centre. This one may well quickly become a typhoon as outflow is very good, shear has become low and sea temps are hot in the region. TS19W is expected to follow a similar track to Hagupit over the next few days, perhaps a little further east. Beyond this, it may recurve east of Taiwan but if the subtropical steering ridge holds out like it did with Hagupit then 19W may thread between the Philippines and China again into the South China sea.

[Cookie]

another new system

Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm NINETEEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

19W has continued to consolidate this afternoon and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Jangmi, with an intensity of 45kts. Conditions are expected to be very favourable over the coming days, therefore there is potential for rapid strengthening. The Philippines and Taiwan need to keep a really close eye on Jangmi, because by 120hrs JTWC are expecting it to be a 120kt cat 4 typhoon! It may even go a lot higher than that as conditions are excellent.

[Cookie]

Could be an interesting watch this. thanks for the updates mate

new update

Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed. Thanks for the update Cookie.

Jangmi has continued to intensify quickly and is now a typhoon, with an intensity of 70kts. I simply cannot stress enough how there is potential for this to become a very dangerous storm. Track has shifted a little north and Jangmi is likely to be very near or making landfall in Taiwan in a few days. Jangmi is in near perfect (if there is such a thing!) conditions with strong dual outflow channels, exceptionally high ocean heat content and non exsistant shear. Until land interaction with Taiwan, Jangmi should keep intensifying, perhaps rapidly. JTWC expect a peak of 115kts, but even they say this hasn't allowed for rapid strengthening which is a real possibility. The Philippines, Taiwan and China (the latter two in particular) need to keep a very close eye on Jangmi.

Satellite image of Jangmi:

[Somerset Squall]

Jangmi's eye has begun to clear out and become better defined looking at satellite imagery, and JTWC have adjusted the intensity upwards to 80kts in the latest advisory. Further rapid intensification is more than possible over the next couple days. Just look at this thing grow!

Edited September 25, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

looks a monster from that image

Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Jangmi has strengthened a whopping 40kts since my last update, and is now a highly dangerous 120kt cat 4 typhoon. Could easily become a cat 5 this one, as conditions will remain favourable for the next day or so. Jangmi is likely to slam into Taiwan at a high end cat 4 or cat 5 and will then begin weakening before a second landfall in China. Nothing stopping this one, except for eyewall replacement cycles which are common for tropical cyclones of this intensity.

[Cookie]

my word what a beast a whopping cat 4!

Storm Alert issued at 26 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

my word what a beast a whopping cat 4!

Now on the cusp of cat 5!! Intensity has been raised to 135kts which is right on the boundary. It also makes Jangmi a super typhoon. Taiwan are in trouble.

[Cookie]

sadly for tawian that storm looks huge!

Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained

[Somerset Squall]

Jangmi is still a 135kt cat 4, but it's possible it may be upgraded to cat 5 in the next advisory. Bearing down on Taiwan now, and the eye is perfectly defined.

Amazing sat loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...sirbbmjava.html

Edited September 27, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[James M]

It does look nasty for Taiwan, do you how dense is the population is on that side of the island ?

Edited September 27, 2008 by James M

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT

Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)

probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[ayu621]

It does look nasty for Taiwan, do you how dense is the population is on that side of the island ?

635/km2 , the place I live is 41000/km2

I don't feel strong wind but Very HEAVY RAINING in the pass few hours .

[Somerset Squall]

635/km2 , the place I live is 41000/km2

I don't feel strong wind but Very HEAVY RAINING in the pass few hours .

Thanks for your input, good luck with Jangmi and stay safe. I expect the winds will increase soon, Jangmi may avoid direct landfall as track forecasts have been shifting ever eastwards over the last 12 hours due to weakening of the ridge to the north of Jangmi.

After affecting Taiwan, Jangmi will race northeastwards towards Japan, but very strong shear and cooler waters should induce extratropical transition fairly rapidly as it does so.

Jangmi still looks a very impressive Super Typhoon, though JTWC have lowered the winds slightly to 130kts. Still an extremely dangerous storm.

[opplevelse]

Eye will come ashore in the next few hours. This a lovely looking storm

[opplevelse]

Eye has now hit Taiwan

Full radar loop (select the second radio button)

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5/observe/radar/radar.htm

Edited September 28, 2008 by opplevelse

[opplevelse]

And a slightly longer sat loop ... Wow she is a real looker!

http://www.nea.gov.sg/cms/mss/aseangif/satanimate.html

Stay safe ayu621!

Edited September 28, 2008 by opplevelse

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT

Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours

Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)

probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[James M]

635/km2 , the place I live is 41000/km2

I don't feel strong wind but Very HEAVY RAINING in the pass few hours .

Thanks for that, hope you're ok over there.

Edited September 28, 2008 by James M

[Somerset Squall]

Jangmi is stalling over Taiwan and has even jogged southwestwards this afternoon, which is not good for Taiwan or the typhoon. Intensity has been decreased to 80kts as mountainous terrain takes it's toll. The circulation is still quite well defined but convection is on the decrease. In around 12-24hrs time, Jangmi is expected to be lifted out of the lull into a fast northeastward motion which will bring the storm over colder waters and about 60kts of shear, which will induce ET or dissipate Jangmi.

[Somerset Squall]

Jangmi has dumped a massive 1.4 metres of rain in some parts of Taiwan. That's almost double what some parts of the UK get in a YEAR!!

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/...nt_10129563.htm

[Cookie]

my word that is some rainfall

Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Taiwan

probability for TS is 55% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Coast]

http://news.bbc.co.uk

TAIPEI (AP): Typhoon Jangmi lashed Taiwan with torrential rains and powerful winds on Sunday, causing widespread flooding, shutting down offices and forcing the cancellation of international flights. Jangmi _ the fourth and most powerful typhoon to hit the island this year _ made landfall in Ilan county in northeastern Taiwan at mid afternoon Sunday, the Central Weather Bureau said.

Power was cut to 86,000 households as the area was hit by gusts of up to 140 miles (227 kilometers) per hour, the highest level the bureau's equipment can measure, it said. ETTV Cable News reported the strong winds overturned a bus on a highway in Ilan, injuring three passengers.

The usually bustling capital of Taipei was eerily quiet with only a few cars on streets buffeted by the stormy weather. Trees were uprooted and building scaffolding blown off. The Disaster Relief Center said dozens of villagers were evacuated from the scenic mountain resort of Lushan in central Taiwan, where all 20 hotels were ordered closed. The area was badly damaged when Typhoon Sinlaku hit two weeks ago, with massive mudslides destroying at least three hotels. Hundreds of fishing boats sheltered at ports, and domestic flights and rail services were canceled, television stations reported.

Taiwan's China Airlines and EVA Airways said several flights to Asia were canceled or rescheduled for Monday. China's Southern and Hainan Airlines canceled their flights to the island from Beijing and Shanghai. The Disaster Relief Center said authorities were pumping flood waters from many low-lying areas and were closely monitoring water levels in rivers, particularly at 19 major bridges that would be closed if necessary.

The Central Weather Bureau said Jangmi would move northwest toward southern China early Monday but its outer bands would continue to dump heavy rains in Taiwan. Mountainous areas could record up to 40 inches (1,000 millimeters) of rain in the two-day period, the bureau said.