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White Christmas 08


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
I was hoping for a very snowed in White Christmas, can't see it happening though. It will probably be just wet and extremely windy. :lol: :lol: :angry::angry::angry:

well the met office forecast just takes the biscuit. dry and mild, the worst scenario imo. no chance for interesting weather, and yet another mild winter.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

take your bets to one of the bookies, a fiver on each centre they will give you, reckon the odds would be perhaps worth it, the betting circle amongst you would know much better than me.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
:doh: Not a snowball's chance in hell.

I'd be pleasantly surprised if the temperature was 0C on Christmas morning... that's how dire Christmas weather has become. The long range says above average and dry for December and January. Another dismal winter in Mild Grey Island's on the cards.

Have to disagree on your first point, many recent christmas's especially in the north have been frosty affairs with snow never that far away either occuring a few days before or just after, even last year we had a bit of frost in the morning, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2006 were all really quite cold affairs.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
Have to disagree on your first point, many recent christmas's especially in the north have been frosty affairs with snow never that far away either occuring a few days before or just after, even last year we had a bit of frost in the morning, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2006 were all really quite cold affairs.

There has been a fair share of cold weather during xmas in the last 10 yrs or so,but for me the last 2 have been mild. Maybe this yr we will get a return of some cold weather during xmas,but maybe not. :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: blizzards and frost.
  • Location: Roscommon Ireland
There has been a fair share of cold weather during xmas in the last 10 yrs or so,but for me the last 2 have been mild. Maybe this yr we will get a return of some cold weather during xmas,but maybe not. :doh:

it wasnt mild here sundog, we woke up to a severe frost with temp of -4c. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m

Ye,and I got down to -2.4c last Christmas ! (I think)

I think this Christmas will be cold and hopefully snowy, I can't see it been mild with rain.

It will be a cold one :D

Sp

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

Xmas stats in Aberdeen:

2007 min of -6.1, high of 5. Dry.

2006 low of -6.1, high of 0.6 with fog.

2005 low of 2.8, high of 5.6. Dry.

2004 we had snow with a low of -2.2 and a high of 2.8.

2003 low of 2.8, high of 10.6 - warm and dry that year.

2002 low of 6.7, high of 8.9 - warm and dry then too.

2001 low of -1.1, high of 2.8. Another snowy one. If I remember this one, it started snowing in the afternoon (we were at a friends for xmas) and had just about stopped when we set off home in the evening. Cold and crispy walk that was - very xmassy.

Maybe this year will be snowy again.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
i'll give it 50/50 here atm may put a fiver on it :D

Lol, they're already getting into details about sunshine and showers.

White Xmas is unlikely, although there have been a couple here in Harrogate in the last few years... although 100m lower down there was nothing.

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

White Christmas possible

Forecast headline

Our fourth forecast suggests a significantly increased chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a polar northeair streamream on Christmas day. If this does develop there will be a significant chance of sleet or snow falling in a number of places. The greatest chance of snow is likely to be in the north and in coastal districts.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2008

Update 2, 05/09/2008

Update 3, 22/09/2008

Update 4, 26/09/2008

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Snow Forecast Issued: Sun 2008-09-28 13:00

Next update: 2008-10-05 12:15:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

For the second week running, long range data continues to suggest a wet christmas week albeit not cold. The charts show rain over much of the country during Christmas day to perhaps bring around 15mm by the end of the day. Charts show the jetstream near or over us around Christmas which will explain for the poor weather. Again any snow will only be restricted to the mountains in Scotland where it should be cold enough. Long range data suggests that all this is thanks to a LOW pressure system that will be just to the North of Scotland. Once again no snow is expected elsewhere. Temperatures: On Christmas day the long range forecast charts are predicting a temperature of about 4-12c throughout the whole of the country. High in the mountains temperatures closer to freezing can be expected, particularly in the Highlands and Cairngorms so snow can definately not be ruled out here. In summary a possibly wet Christmas day with no Snow expected on low ground though a risk of snow is possible High up in the mountains. A cool day can be expected but perhaps mild on the South coast.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...ast-wc&id=8

post-449-1222603613_thumb.png

Edited by Stuart
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

How can anybody make a detailed forecast 3 months in advance? I will not pay any attention to the forecasts until December...unless they predict a white xmas of course ;-)

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
How can anybody make a detailed forecast 3 months in advance? I will not pay any attention to the forecasts until December...unless they predict a white xmas of course ;-)

Exactly, it really is a load of nonsense.

The Met office couldn't even predict the snow that fell for some parts during Christmas Day 2004 on their countryfile forecast, 13 days before even though GFS at that time in the FI range suggested a possible cold Christmas.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Exactly, it really is a load of nonsense.

The Met office couldn't even predict the snow that fell for some parts during Christmas Day 2004 on their countryfile forecast, 13 days before even though GFS at that time in the FI range suggested a possible cold Christmas at the time.

The absolute limit at this stage is "We have a signal of having a cold/mild, wet/dry Christmas", seeing websites write things like "The charts show rain over much of the country during Christmas day to perhaps bring around 15mm by the end of the day" is sticking your neck out to the extreme. You can't predict rainfall totals accurately 3 days in advance, let alone 3 months!

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Current odds for Aberdeen and Glasgow at 4`s will shorten in the run up unless its the usual roaring zonality but as most mention its pure speculation 3 months away and nowt can justify a flutter just yet ;) (unless the overall southerly tracking jet of 2008 stays put -NAO forecast blah blah that is)

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Posted
  • Location: Rushden, East Northamptonshire
  • Location: Rushden, East Northamptonshire

Christ on a bike, this is a bit premature.

In my home town in North Yorks we did manage a healthy run of white christmasses, about 5 in 7 years between 95-02. Only one was a proper white Christmas though, with lying snow. Rest was just the odd shower with the proper snow falling between boxing day and new year.

Its always about this time of year people start to speculate about the upcoming winter. I think there is little point listening to anything the MetOffice come out with because they sit so far on the fence, its pointless. Difference is this year, I think NW Europe will cool down pretty sharpish, and it may be a return to form for the Alps. Whether it translates for a cold winter in the UK remains to be seen.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

"now Forecast Issued: Sun 2008-09-28 13:00

Next update: 2008-10-05 12:15:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

The outlook for Christmas week remains wet and fairly mild. LOW pressure is forecast to dominate the UK's weather, bringing rain or showers across many parts of the country during Christmas day, with any snow restricted to the mountains of Scotland. Temperatures are currently expected to range from 4-12C across the country, although closer to freezing in the Scottish Mountains. In general, a fairly mild and wet Christmas day is expected with snow confined to the tops of the mountains in Scotland."

I appreciate that someone has stuck their neck of the line and made a forecast that far ahead but as we all know, the models are all over the place at 14 days ahead, 3 months ahead is like trying to find a penny you dropped in a deep river lol.

You can never forecast that far ahead realistically. You can make a forecast and then get lucky and it goes pretty much how you said it would but I don't think any model's will tell you with confidence what will happen on the 14th of October let alone the 25th of December.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
"now Forecast Issued: Sun 2008-09-28 13:00

Next update: 2008-10-05 12:15:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

The outlook for Christmas week remains wet and fairly mild. LOW pressure is forecast to dominate the UK's weather, bringing rain or showers across many parts of the country during Christmas day, with any snow restricted to the mountains of Scotland. Temperatures are currently expected to range from 4-12C across the country, although closer to freezing in the Scottish Mountains. In general, a fairly mild and wet Christmas day is expected with snow confined to the tops of the mountains in Scotland."

I appreciate that someone has stuck their neck of the line and made a forecast that far ahead but as we all know, the models are all over the place at 14 days ahead, 3 months ahead is like trying to find a penny you dropped in a deep river lol.

You can never forecast that far ahead realistically. You can make a forecast and then get lucky and it goes pretty much how you said it would but I don't think any model's will tell you with confidence what will happen on the 14th of October let alone the 25th of December.

Notice there is no specific detail there though, such as "a band of rain will swing from the northwest by late morning". I think they just want to give a general overview of how it looks at the moment rather than any detailed forecast at this stage. Still, I hope we get to see a white Christmas :o

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
They're simply explaning in medium detail what christmas weather is currently showing to be, nothing more. Not really nonsense.

Exactly OP.

At a guess, perhaps showing/putting down on paper what the CFS is showing.

I dont think its a personal forecast per sa, but just an interpretation.

Edited by Shiny_Bottom_1
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m

White Christmas 08?

Ye the coldest and snowiest in living memory.........................

:):D:)

Sp

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Posted
  • Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M
  • Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M

The simple answer like many have stated is that noone can make an accurate prediction this far out.

Even at the beginning of December, forecasters will only be making educated guesses.

Quite frankly though, it's October the 2nd. I can't believe Xmas is already on people's minds!

Edited by Polar Low
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Forecast headline

Our fifth forecast suggests an increased chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a polar northerly airstream on Christmas day. If this does develop there will be a significant chance of sleet or snow falling in a number of places. The greatest chance of snow is likely to be in the north and in coastal districts but in this set-up snow could also fall further south.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2008

Update 2, 05/09/2008

Update 3, 22/09/2008

Update 4, 26/09/2008

Update 5, 04/10/2008

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Snow Forecast Issued: Sun 2008-10-05 13:33

Next update: 2008-10-12 13:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

A week later and the theme for the Christmas period remains cool and showery. HIGH pressure to the west and LOW pressure to the east will provide a northerly or northeasterly airflow across the UK, bringing the threat of wintry showers not just to Highland Scotland but also eastern Scotland and eastern England, with some hill snow. This has therefore lead to a slight increase in the % chance of a White Christmas in some regions, as indicated on the map. Temperatures are generally expected to range from 4-6C in the North and 8-10C further south. Strong northerly winds forecast along the east coast will make it feel quite cold. In general, a cool and showery Christmas day is expected with wintry precipitation possible in the north and east of the UK.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...ast-wc&id=9

post-449-1223211451_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

honestly, isnt this just a total guessing game, albeit quite fun. chances are it'll be a mild atlantic christmas, with less of a chance of a bit of the white stuff. personally, a frosty christmas will do me just fine

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