White Christmas 08

[Optimus Prime]

But I bet the CET minimum value was much, much lower in 1981! Remarkable month.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Afternoon all,

Seems strange discussing white Xmases while looking out at clear blue skies and temps around the 70f mark.

Xmas day in isolation, is not a great day for wintry type synoptics. One of the most snowiest of the last century was 1938 but i cant find a synoptic chart to

illustrate that fact, if i ask nicely perhaps somebody could post one! Snow seems more common towards the New Year. The colder Xmas days tend to be dry, which I suppose mirrors winters in general. Here are a few examples of some of the more wintry looking synoptics for Xmas day:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119611225.gif

Cold and sunny generally, heavy snow in the midlands and the south a few days prior to the New Year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621225.gif

White Xmas for most of the northern half of Britain. Further south bitterly cold after severe overnight frost, then heavy snow on Boxing day. The rest is history as they say.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119641225.gif

A few snow showers in the N. & N.E. but otherwise cold and sunny.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119651225.gif

Sure to have been some snow from this set-up but dont have any info. If any members have any please.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119701225.gif

Snow and some thunder for the S.E.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119781225.gif

Snow for some parts of Scotland but very cold weather and snow spread south towards the New Year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119951225.gif

Snow for quite a few areas, notably Scotland, with a severe blizzard giving 35cms in Shetland with a lot of drifting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120011225.gif

Must have been some snow for the north but dont have any info.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120041225.gif

A white xmas for some parts of the N. and W.

I see Mr.Data is lurking, perhaps you could help me with some info on Xmas day 1938, 1965 and 2001 kind sir!

One of the more snowier looking charts would be a very nice present first thing Xmas day 2008.

Regards,

Tom.

[Optimus Prime]

Great post Tom. The 1960s was exceptional for the fact almost every December was bitterly cold.

You forgot 2000 though. the spell of cold weather in the second half was one of the most notable for the last hundred years. More memorable for me though, was surprised by how cold Christmas felt that year after the mild run 1997-1999.

The cold E/NE wind with some snow showers around. Mostly dry though, but very cold.

TAHarley describes the month;

December. A wet month, overall slightly warmer than average. It was sunny in the NW, but dull on the south coast. Particularly wet in the SW. A very mild, wet, stormy first half; the first week was the warmest since 1986, and the first half since 1979. 15C widely recorded on the 5th (Leeds), 11th, and 13th. The last week brought Arctic air which partly offset the earlier mild weather; the cold spell was the most notable and widespread since that of 1995. -14C was recorded at Hereford on the 29th and -15C at Dalmally (Argyll) on the 30th - the lowest UK reading since January 1997. Most of the country saw some snow, with the 27-29th being the main snowfall event of the year. The M40 was closed for a time near Oxford. Parts of the Home Counties saw the deepest snow since February 1991, with 20 cm at Luton airport.

[Weather-history]

I see Mr.Data is lurking, perhaps you could help me with some info on Xmas day 1938, 1965 and 2001 kind sir!

Regards,

Tom.

December 1938

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=34990

1965 was a cold one but snow showers were restricted to areas exposed to the wind

2001 had wintry showers about. NE Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland did reasonably.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi OP,

I should've mentioned 2000 but I noticed that chart in an earlier post but you're quite right, a very noteworthy spell.

Yes, Decembers of the '60s had some really notable cold spells and great eye-candy charts for cold weather lovers.

Regards,

Tom.

Thanks Mr.Data,

Now I know where I saw those '38 charts. Great stuff as usual!

Especially like the article with reference to 8" of snow in Kent, my home county.

Regards,

Tom.

[Snowyowl9]

Afternoon all,

Seems strange discussing white Xmases while looking out at clear blue skies and temps around the 70f mark.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119951225.gif

Snow for quite a few areas, notably Scotland, with a severe blizzard giving 35cms in Shetland with a lot of drifting.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120011225.gif

Must have been some snow for the north but dont have any info.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120041225.gif

I see Mr.Data is lurking, perhaps you could help me with some info on Xmas day 1938, 1965 and 2001 kind sir!

Regards,

Tom.

2001 the snow showers came very late in the day here with a slight covering at 10pm.

As by boxing day there was 2 inches.

The most snowless christmas`s were in actual fact the 80`s with the 90`s seeing more white ones than any decade I`ve seen, only saw 1 in the 80`s that was 1981 with no snow falling,can`t vouch for the 60`s as I wasn`t around.

2004 was the snowiest with heavy snow falling on the day itself perfect.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Snowyowl9,

Yes the 80's had some shockers in terms of cold, snowy Xmas periods. The '81 Xmas day came at the end of that momentous spell of cold and snowy weather in that great December. At least the Jan/Feb spells of the mid 80's made up for it somewhat. We cant buy a cold Jan. for love or money now.

Regards,

Tom.

[Gavin P]

We had 2 white Christmas's in 3 years here, 1968 and 1970 and then not one since! Quite amazing that!

[jemtom]

It wasn't directed at you personally, just your initial comment after Stuart's post was a typical one that follows every Sunday.

What I'm trying to say is it seems a lot of work and thought goes into creating these forecasts. Yes they may be wrong in the long run, but at the moment at least the organisations are having a go at forecasting. As i said before every Sunday i read comments that question the accuracy of these forecasts 3 months before the date. Once again i read that forecasts this early are thought to be less than 40% accurate.

Creating them in September I believe is part of the "fun" of the run-up to Christmas. A white Christmas gets many people excited, which is probably why these organisations try to forecast at an early stage. They let us see how the conditions change each week. Obviously as we get closer and closer to Christmas they will in time get more accurate.

But simply, don't take them too literally at this early stage, which is what many seem to do.

With regards to Michael Fish, I am simply pointing out that people criticise more than praise forecasts, and it is the mistakes that are often remembered more. That is just human nature.

I give thumbs-up to these organisations for actually participating in forecasting this event. It's always interesting to read the discussion on here of the possibilites of a White Christmas, and whilst i encourage these posts It does get annoying after a while when there are duplicate posts every Sunday about how accurate the forecasts are at this stage.

They give a rough idea, not a detailed, accurate forecast.

The last sentence was referring to general comments made each Sunday. If people don't like the forecasts issued at this early stage then the simple answer to that is don't bother reading them. I hope that clarifies a few things.

Regards.

Not really, but I appreciate your attempts at clarification. Best we leave it here me thinks, otherwise the Mods will decend like vultures....

Here's hoping for a white one!

[Stuart]

White Christmas unlikely

Forecast headline

Our fifth forecast suggests a significantly reduced chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think the UK is likely to be covered by a relatively mild south westerly airstream on Christmas day. If this is correct any snow is likely to be restricted to the highest ground in northern regions.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 25% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 15% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2008

Update 2, 05/09/2008

Update 3, 22/09/2008

Update 4, 26/09/2008

Update 5, 04/10/2008

Update 6, 12/10/2008

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

Edited October 12, 2008 by Stuart

[Costa Del Fal]

They seem pretty confident on a South Westerly direction! Now thats a bit too detailed at the moment!

Edited October 12, 2008 by Blizzards

[BARRY]

They seem pretty confident on a South Westerly direction! Now thats a bit too detailed at the moment!

will it rain

[Costa Del Fal]

will it rain

Lol careful, we could be asking for a blazing hot day at this rate!

[Geordiesnow]

will it rain

Will it snow?

I agree with Maidstone weather, the forecasts are only fun and should not be taken too literally either, who knows though they might be right and Scotland will have a white xmas.

[weather eater]

On the subject of white Christmases I can remember only two, the last one was in the early 70s, there was one here a few years ago but alas I living in Norfolk at the time. This is why I said most likely to be mild, by that I don’t mean a heat wave just not cold enough to snow. nothing wrong with a bit of fun but I can not see the point of these forecasts if you want fun why not just make it up of the top of your heads its got just as much chance of being right. Here’s mine

5 degrees C

Light Rain

Winds SW/W force 4

[jemtom]

On the subject of white Christmases I can remember only two, the last one was in the early 70s, there was one here a few years ago but alas I living in Norfolk at the time. This is why I said most likely to be mild, by that I don't mean a heat wave just not cold enough to snow. nothing wrong with a bit of fun but I can not see the point of these forecasts if you want fun why not just make it up of the top of your heads its got just as much chance of being right. Here's mine

5 degrees C

Light Rain

Winds SW/W force 4

Absolutely right, my sentiments exactly.

Here's mine....

Max 10c

Rain or drizzle at times.

SW force 6

In other words, bog standard!

[noggin]

....and here's mine........

maximum temperature......0c

heavy, driving snow

strong to gale-force E/NEly

....all starting on 24th December and finishing on 26th December.

Then we will have a thaw and the above weather will repeat itself starting on 31st December and finishing on 2nd January.

Nice.

[jemtom]

....and here's mine........

maximum temperature......0c

heavy, driving snow

strong to gale-force E/NEly

....all starting on 24th December and finishing on 26th December.

Then we will have a thaw and the above weather will repeat itself starting on 31st December and finishing on 2nd January.

Nice.

Would be nice, but it's about as likely as Exeter winning the FA Cup this season.

Yes, that unlikely...

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Two change there mind every week on the weather for xmas. Last week they where predicting a NE air flow with widespread snowfall. Now the total opposite. Total waste of time in my view until 2 weeks before.

SNOW-MAN2006

[noggin]

Would be nice, but it's about as likely as Exeter winning the FA Cup this season.

Yes, that unlikely...

They aren't doing too bad at the moment , and don't forget our humiliation of Man U a couple of seasons ago!

I have a feelin' in me water about this Christmas and if I keep on having that feeling, well, I have to be right one year. Bring it on .

[Snowyowl9]

Absolutely right, my sentiments exactly.

Here's mine....

Max 10c

Rain or drizzle at times.

SW force 6

In other words, bog standard!

I remember this christmas the mildest I can remember it didn`t feel like christmas, 14c/15c in the south 1988.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119881225.gif

Edited October 13, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Thundery wintry showers]

Christmas Days 1968 and 1993 are also worth a mention:

1968: Atlantic systems stalled against a Greenland block, following what had been a fairly half-hearted northerly outbreak across the UK. However, as the Atlantic system engaged the cold air, many places, especially the north and east, saw snow from it, giving a very unexpected white Christmas (the forecasts had been for the Atlantic system to push through introducing mild air according to Philip Eden). Over the following few days northerly winds pushed south and brought further snow showers to the E and NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119681225.gif

1993: Most of Britain had a dry sunny day, with just isolated snow flurries. However, fronts straddled western areas, bringing some sleety snow, which settled on high ground, although accumulations were mostly limited on low ground. Aberdeen had a large amount of snow on Christmas Eve which led to a substantial snow cover for Christmas Day. Elsewhere, as a north-easterly wind picked up, wintry showers moved inland from the North Sea providing snow showers and accumulations to parts of eastern England. Following the cold autumn, SSTs in the North Sea were quite low, so at Cleadon (Tyne & Wear), the snow showers produced accumulations despite the strengthening wind straight off the sea- normally under that synoptic setup, the temperature would rise as the onshore wind picked up, giving rain hail and sleet showers. Wintry showers continued in eastern counties on Boxing Day before dying out on the 27th, then some more wet snow affected many areas on 28 December.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119931225.gif

[stewfox]

....and here's mine........

maximum temperature......0c

heavy, driving snow

strong to gale-force E/NEly

....all starting on 24th December and finishing on 26th December.

Then we will have a thaw and the above weather will repeat itself starting on 31st December and finishing on 2nd January.

Nice.

Looks like everyone is coming to my house on Christmas day then

[Stuart]

Do any one know what the CFS long Range models saying for Christmas 2day

Edited October 18, 2008 by Stuart

[johnholmes]

mild wnw flow backing to sw as low tracks towards Iceland!