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White Christmas 08


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmparc, South Wales.
  • Location: Cwmparc, South Wales.

Cloudy showery start after overnight rain will clear to sunny intervals. Temperature a mild 17C with reports of many heading for the beach. Complaints no ice cream vans to be seen anywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

one week down one week up Stuart, its much too far ahead for any model to really be giving sensible advice I'm afraid.

the possibly rather more reliable NW output of the month from CFS data suggests that December will see low pressure anchored south west or west south west of the UK, around 30 degrees west, so the overall wind flow will be more from south of west rather than north of west. That is if the prediction is correct.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
one week down one week up Stuart, its much too far ahead for any model to really be giving sensible advice I'm afraid.

the possibly rather more reliable NW output of the month from CFS data suggests that December will see low pressure anchored south west or west south west of the UK, around 30 degrees west, so the overall wind flow will be more from south of west rather than north of west. That is if the prediction is correct.

How depressing. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Yep the Long range charts are definately showing a mild airflow with an unsettled theme generally. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Yep the Long range charts are definately showing a mild airflow with an unsettled theme generally. :D

Even if it was showing a Northerly I wouldn't believe it, the uk is cursed with south westerlies until the gulf stream conveyor belt shuts down sometime never.

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Even if it was showing a Northerly I wouldn't believe it, the uk is cursed with south westerlies until the gulf stream conveyor belt shuts down sometime never.

have a little faith friends, there is always hope. :D

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

not really Gavin, at any rate not on the last charts;

the only +ve areas are over Italy and central Greenland

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Well seeing all of the xmas forecasts being all over the place, this is what I think will happen:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=zPIn-jdo24Q

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Snow Forecast Issued: Sun 2008-10-19 13:00

Next update: 2008-10-26 13:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

After last week showing a fairly cool airflow, it remains pretty similar on the latest run of charts though it continues to change sometimes between mild and cool. But based on the current charts it seems that the Jetstream will be mainly over or near the UK around the Christmas period so a mostly unsettled period is likely. The latest Sea Level pressure chart shows LOW pressure never too far away from the UK either and an airflow from the West is likely. Despite this the Charts are showing it being quite cool over the UK with the 528dam line covering all of the UK. This means that snow cant be ruled out but currently any snow would most likely be restricted to the Mountains of Scotland and perhaps the Pennines but In Scotland it may even be cold enough for Snow to lower ground too. Temperature wise, in Scotland temperatures are expected to range from about 3-6c, Elsewhere 4-8c with perhaps upto 10c in the South West. In summary a cool day is expected with Snow possible particularly in Scotland but mostly towards higher ground. Elsewhere snow isnt really expected.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=13

post-449-1224417834_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

B) :drinks::D:D B) :):)

Significant chance of a White Christmas

Forecast headline

Our seventh forecast suggests an increased chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a very cold polar airflow bringing the possibility of snow to northern and even southern areas. This type of set-up is more likely to bring snow to coastal districts and the north. For example, the North Yorkshire Moors and much of Scotland would tend to be favoured

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2008

Update 2, 05/09/2008

Update 3, 22/09/2008

Update 4, 26/09/2008

Update 5, 04/10/2008

Update 6, 12/10/2008

Update 7, 22/10/2008

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
:D;):D:D:D:):)

Significant chance of a White Christmas

Forecast headline

Our seventh forecast suggests an increased chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a very cold polar airflow bringing the possibility of snow to northern and even southern areas. This type of set-up is more likely to bring snow to coastal districts and the north. For example, the North Yorkshire Moors and much of Scotland would tend to be favoured

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2008

Update 2, 05/09/2008

Update 3, 22/09/2008

Update 4, 26/09/2008

Update 5, 04/10/2008

Update 6, 12/10/2008

Update 7, 22/10/2008

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

Oh dear! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Snow Forecast Issued: Sun 2008-10-26 13:25

Next update: 2008-10-30 10:00:00

Regions Affected

The UK

Synopsis

Christmas week now looks likely to be a mild and wet one. Atlantic LOW pressure systems are forecast to dominate, bringing westerly winds. Therefore, unsettled conditions are currently expected for much of the country on Christmas Day, with bands of rain or showers in places. The driest conditions are expected to be in the east, although even here showers cannot be ruled out. Snow is currently unlikely during the Christmas period. Temperatures are forecast to range from 6-9C in the North, and 7-12C in the South, perhaps peaking at 14c in the Southwest. In general, a mild and wet Christmas is expected, with snow unlikely.

http://ukasf.weather2day.com/index.php?nam...st-wc&id=14

post-449-1225028166_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

sorry to be such a killjoy but i don't get this thread. the meto arent very sure about the latter part of this week, so what is the point of looking at christmas in late october! one thing is for sure on christmas day, there will be weather :clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
sorry to be such a killjoy but i don't get this thread. the meto arent very sure about the latter part of this week, so what is the point of looking at christmas in late october! one thing is for sure on christmas day, there will be weather wink.gif

Yes it all seems a bit pointless considering it's changing weekly so what's the point in wondering now? Why not just wait untill 17th december and look at the charts then until then i won't follow these forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Says it all when one forecast says it will be very cold and another says it will be mild and wet - at this stage it is purely a guessing game!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

you keep doing it Stuart if you want

the models, which is what the forecasts are based on, will obviously chop and change at this time scale.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Yes it all seems a bit pointless considering it's changing weekly so what's the point in wondering now? Why not just wait untill 17th december and look at the charts then until then i won't follow these forecasts.

Because I for one like to see how things change from day to day, week to week.

and their are obviously people who put a lot of hard work into threads like this.

ok everyone is entitled to their own views.

this is a popular thread as you can see by the number of pages.

I for one don't see this a pointless, I see it a way for me to learn more.

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Because I for one like to see how things change from day to day, week to week.

and their are obviously people who put a lot of hard work into threads like this.

ok everyone is entitled to their own views.

this is a popular thread as you can see by the number of pages.

I for one don't see this a pointless, I see it a way for me to learn more.

I apologise i didn't mean to sound rude and what youre doing isn't pointless. What i meant by my post was that the ensembles and patterns change so constant that its pointless basing your hopes at say a forecast in october for 2 months ahead. No disrespect to you at all and i am sorry if it's come across like that.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I must admit i never read any of the white christmas forecasts as of yet but some people do find it interesting what the models are hinting in the long term for the big day itself. I am sure once the big day come and if its a white one, people may read back the posts and say we were all fearing it was going to be a Green xmas in October, but November was hinting at a white xmas and December downgraded the white xmas hopes untill a week or two to the big day itself where the models are predicting a 'Beast from the East' for the big day. :angry:

Seriously though, if you think the forecasts are pointless as others have stated previously, don't read this thread. :lol:

Edited by Geordiesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

mmm

Significant chance of a White Christmas

Forecast headline

Our eighth forecast suggests a slightly increased chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a very cold polar airflow bringing the possibility of snow to northern and even southern areas. This type of set-up is more likely to bring snow to coastal districts and the north. For example, the North Yorkshire Moors and much of Scotland would tend to be favoured.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 49% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 42% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2008

Update 2, 05/09/2008

Update 3, 22/09/2008

Update 4, 26/09/2008

Update 5, 04/10/2008

Update 6, 12/10/2008

Update 7, 22/10/2008

Update 8, 28/10/2008

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx

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