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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia
We still do not know if the current melt is natural or man made.... We can surmise as much as we like! I do agree that over the last 2 centuries man has had some influence on the conditions in the Arctic but I feel that this has been over played as an alarmist tool to beat people to become greener.

At present ice recovery over the last few weeks has been good and last year ice had recovered by over 9 million sq.km. I acknowledge the melt was nearly at the same rate over the summer just gone. There are some positive signs in that the water temperatures in the region is a lot less than last year and therefore less energy will be required to reach the same level last winter.

Now people have provided arguments for and against why this has been happening and I am fast coming to the conclusion that scientists just do not know what is around the corner and for all we know in twenty years the Arctic may have recovered.

:mellow:

And why do we need to beat people to be greener that’s the question, because it’s not in the interests of the politician’s, economists and big business that are running the world for us to be so, in fact quite the opposite, however an ice free arctic is well in their interests. There are some on this thread that seem to see a government plot to spreading green propaganda but its big business that runs the show these days and they are the people that politicians pay most attention to.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
And why do we need to beat people to be greener that's the question, because it's not in the interests of the politician's, economists and big business that are running the world for us to be so, in fact quite the opposite, however an ice free arctic is well in their interests. There are some on this thread that seem to see a government plot to spreading green propaganda but its big business that runs the show these days and they are the people that politicians pay most attention to.

Like Alf Garnetts 'Conservatism' there will always be the perculiar folk who will beat the drum for those who they would aspire to be......and of course, if accused, will decry their inocence of all charges....rather too loudly methinks :mellow:

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

And a "record re-freeze" :o

Arctic air temperatures climb to record levels

Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:01pm EDT "Arctic air temperatures climb to record levels"

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fall air temperatures have climbed to record levels in the Arctic due to major losses of sea ice as the region suffers more effects from a warming trend dating back decades, a report released on Thursday showed. The annual report issued by researchers at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other experts is the latest to paint a dire picture of the impact of climate change in the Arctic.

It found that fall air temperatures are at a record 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees C) above normal in the Arctic because of the major loss of sea ice in recent years that allows more solar heating of the ocean.

That warming of the air and ocean impacts land and marine life and cuts the amount of winter sea ice that lasts into the following summer, according to the report.

In addition, wild reindeer and caribou herds appear to be declining in numbers, according to the report. The report also noted melting of surface ice in Greenland.

"Changes in the Arctic show a domino effect from multiple causes more clearly than in other regions," James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle one of the authors of the report, said in a statement.

"It's a sensitive system and often reflects changes in relatively fast and dramatic ways."

Researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, part of the University of Colorado, reported last month that Arctic sea ice melted to its second-lowest level this summer.

The 2008 season, those researchers said, strongly reinforces a 30-year downward trend in Arctic ice extent -- 34 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000, but 9 percent above the record low set in 2007.

Last year was the warmest on record in the Arctic, continuing a regionwide warming trend dating to the mid-1960s. Most experts blame climate change on human activities spewing so-called greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

(Reporting by Will Dunham

================================================================================

===============

And from the NOAA themselves

================================================================================

===============

Annual Arctic Report Card Shows Stronger Effects of Warming

October 16, 2008

Temperature increases, a near-record loss of summer sea ice, and a melting of surface ice in Greenland are among some of the evidence of continued warming in the Arctic, according to an annual review of conditions in the Arctic issued today by NOAA and its university, agency, and international partners.

“Changes in the Arctic show a domino effect from multiple causes more clearly than in other regions,” said James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and a lead author of the report. “It’s a sensitive system and often reflects changes in relatively fast and dramatic ways.”

One example of these changes in arctic climate is the autumn air temperatures which are at a record 5 degrees C (9 degrees F) above normal, because of the major loss of sea ice in recent years. The loss of sea ice allows more solar heating of the ocean. That warming of the air and ocean affects land and marine life, and reduces the amount of winter sea ice that lasts into the following summer. The year 2007 was the warmest on record for the Arctic, continuing a general Arctic-wide warming trend that began in the mid-1960s.

The Arctic Report Card, a product introduced by NOAA’s Climate Program Office in 2006, establishes a baseline of conditions in that region in the 21st century and provides a way of monitoring the often quickly changing conditions. It is updated annually in October and tracks the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land and Greenland.

In this year’s report card, three of the six areas (atmosphere, sea ice, and Greenland) are coded red on the Report Card, indicating that the changes are strongly attributed to warming. The three remaining areas (biology, ocean, land) are coded yellow, indicating mixed signals. The 2007 Report Card had two red areas (atmosphere and sea ice) and four coded yellow.

“The Arctic Report Card is one of the few opportunities for a team of researchers to work together to provide a very broad look at the state of the Arctic system,” said the report’s chief editor Jackie Richter-Menge from the USACE Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. “The information combines to tell a story of widespread and, in some cases, dramatic effects of an overall warming of the Arctic system.”

The report’s other contributing lead authors are from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Woods Hole, Mass.; the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska; Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, Ohio; and Environment Canada, Whitehorse, Yukon.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

================================================================================

========================

I found it well worth a click on the 'report card'.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
And a "record re-freeze" :D

Arctic air temperatures climb to record levels

Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:01pm EDT "Arctic air temperatures climb to record levels"

I found it well worth a click on the 'report card'.

Well they both cant be right ?

I assume warm artic temps refer to localised events ? Graphs cannot lie :unsure:

Or do we have 10,000 global coolers shoveling snow off trucks up there ??

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Well they both cant be right ?

I assume warm artic temps refer to localised events ? Graphs cannot lie :unsure:

Or do we have 10,000 global coolers shoveling snow off trucks up there ??

Or more accurately the report, despite the way the story is written, refers to October and November 2007 not 2008 (even if it is based on the 2008 report card!). This year the picture looks both colder and icier at present (compared with 2007).

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

deetmp.18117.png

AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png

What's to debate? Ice extend for October this millenium is the greatest..oh the Polar Bears will be happy and the warming alarmist jaunts on polar ships to prove something that is not there, will remain stuck or become stuck in ice laden seas..fan-bloody-tastic! :clap:

Edited by Delta X-Ray
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

As we've seen every single year ,ice grows over Autumn /winter.

When no more ice can grow then ice growth stops and growth rates fall to zero.

And this tells us what exactly? Ice develops when it gets cold.

On the flip side we look at the summer season. Ice has been melting beyond previously recorded extents. Perennial ice has melted back to levels not witnessed before. Ice shelves (in place upwards of 7,oooyrs) are collapsing with monotonous regularity. Greenland's melt rates and length of melt season are beyond any recorded rates. Glaciers throughout Greenland (esp. the minor ones) are adding to the alarming rate (esp. for those who wish to see the retention of Antarctica's ' girdling' ice shelves) of sea level rise. Deep permafrost is melting (and it's 'captured' methane stores releasing) like never recorded before.

Whoopee doo, water freezes in the high Arctic when the sun sets for the last time of the summer season......big deal.....or not???

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Your will notice on that graph that in the first week of november that they are all roughly the same. Let's see if this is the same this year, if 2008 is greater I will take note.

If not then it will make this year slower in terms of ice growth than last year.

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The latest Ice Extent as at 17 October is 7,375,156sqkm2, which is 241,281 above the 2003-2007 average and 1,712,031sqkm2 above the 2007 ice extent as this time.

The Ice Growth in October to date is 41% this year, compared to 23% for the same period last year.

Figures taken from my spreadsheet below.

As for November I would imagine Ice Extent to be in the gaggle of the other years.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Or more accurately the report, despite the way the story is written, refers to October and November 2007 not 2008 (even if it is based on the 2008 report card!). This year the picture looks both colder and icier at present (compared with 2007).

Tut Tut GW cherry picking again is he?

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Or more accurately the report, despite the way the story is written, refers to October and November 2007 not 2008 (even if it is based on the 2008 report card!). This year the picture looks both colder and icier at present (compared with 2007).

Seeing as the graphs for jan -may 2008 and the sept 2008 plots are all there I'm having trouble seeing your point. Would you like to check through the card again and tell me what brings you to your conclusion please.

I feel sure that the NOAA, who release the 'annual report' each October, are not year behind with their data sets.

If I'm correct in that the NOAA report card for 2008 is really the report card for the year ending sept 2008 then BFTP's comment is also in error.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Seeing as the graphs for jan -may 2008 and the sept 2008 plots are all there I'm having trouble seeing your point. Would you like to check through the card again and tell me what brings you to your conclusion please.

I feel sure that the NOAA, who release the 'annual report' each October, are not year behind with their data sets.

If I'm correct in that the NOAA report card for 2008 is really the report card for the year ending sept 2008 then BFTP's comment is also in error.

" Would you like to check through the card again and tell me what brings you to your conclusion please. "

Can I suggest that you read it yourself?

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/atmosphere.html

"The summers of 2005 through 2007 all ended with extensive areas of open water (see sea ice section). This allowed extra heat to be absorbed by the ocean from solar radiation. As a result ice freeze-up occurred later than usual in these years. Surface air temperature (SAT) remained high into the following autumns, with warm anomalies above an unprecedented +5° C during October and November across the central Arctic (Fig. A2). "

Are you seriously trying to suggest they are referring to autumn 2008?

Seems quite clear to me. The NOAA are not a year behind in their data. The annual report seems to be from the start of autumn last year to the end of summer this year. It can't include this autumn as we're only half way through it!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

A few links that may be of interest:

CURRENT MELTING OF GREENLAND'S ICE MIMICS 1920s-1940s EVENT

http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/grnlndice.htm

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php?fcst=FZAK80PAFC

From here:

'THE YEAR GROUP FOR OCTOBER IS 1998 WITH 2004 SECOND. THERE IS A GOOD LIKENESS IN THE ICE NEAR ALASKA IN 2008 AS 1998. THE ICE OVER RUSSIA IS NOTHING LIKE 1998. FOR THE OUTLOOKS I USED A COMBINATION OF 1998 AND 2004.'

Experts Confirm Open Water Circling Arctic

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/...ling&st=cse

From here:

'And one of the groups focusing most closely on possible Arctic shipping lanes, the National Ice Center operated by the Navy and Commerce Department, says flatly that the satellites are misreading conditions in many spots and that there is too much ice in a critical spot along the Russian coast (highlighted in the smaller image above) to allow anything but ice-hardened ships to get through. In an e-mail message Wednesday, Sean R. Helfrich, a scientist at the ice center, said that ponds of meltwater pooling on sea ice could fool certain satellite-borne instruments into interpreting ice as open water, “suggesting areas that have substantial ice cover as being sea-ice free.” The highlighted area is probably still impassible ice, including large amounts of thick old floes, he said. I sent the note to an array of sea-ice experts, and many, including Mark Serreze at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, concurred.'

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
" Would you like to check through the card again and tell me what brings you to your conclusion please. "

Can I suggest that you read it yourself?

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/atmosphere.html

"The summers of 2005 through 2007 all ended with extensive areas of open water (see sea ice section). This allowed extra heat to be absorbed by the ocean from solar radiation. As a result ice freeze-up occurred later than usual in these years. Surface air temperature (SAT) remained high into the following autumns, with warm anomalies above an unprecedented +5° C during October and November across the central Arctic (Fig. A2). "

Are you seriously trying to suggest they are referring to autumn 2008?

Seems quite clear to me. The NOAA are not a year behind in their data. The annual report seems to be from the start of autumn last year to the end of summer this year. It can't include this autumn as we're only half way through it!

Accepted DR.M, but it does include this years figures.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Leading ice specialists in Europe and the United States for the first time have agreed that a ring of navigable waters has opened all around the fringes of the cap of sea ice drifting on the warming Arctic Ocean.....

....Last month, news reports said that satellites showed navigable waters through both fabled Arctic shipping routes.

But

those satellite findings were disputed by the United States National Ice Center, run by the Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The center said the satellites monitoring the ice were fooled by broad stretches of fresh water pooling atop ice floes, which can resemble open sea lanes.

On Friday though, citing fresh images using sensors that can more carefully distinguish ice from water, the Ice Center concurred, issuing a statement concluding, “This is the first recorded occurrence of the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route both being open at the same time.”

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Since the early noughties the arctic has had a step change in it's summer ablation rater and the levels of perennial ice older than 5 years. How long is it going to take for some folk to concede that what is happening is real and heading in only one direction? They even get all fired up when single year ice is drifted into the high Arctic (and so survives the summer) as it transforms into 'new perenial', new perennial?????

The smokescreen we have had for the past 2 years now (regarding the re-freeze of the vast new stretches of open water) will start to become a ridiculous sideshow were they (the folk peddling it) to continue for too many years (esp. as the rolling average will start to reflect more closely the 'new' arctic) surely they recognise this and have some kind of contrarian fallback position????.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
Leading ice specialists in Europe and the United States for the first time have agreed that a ring of navigable waters has opened all around the fringes of the cap of sea ice drifting on the warming Arctic Ocean.....

....Last month, news reports said that satellites showed navigable waters through both fabled Arctic shipping routes.

But

those satellite findings were disputed by the United States National Ice Center, run by the Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The center said the satellites monitoring the ice were fooled by broad stretches of fresh water pooling atop ice floes, which can resemble open sea lanes.

On Friday though, citing fresh images using sensors that can more carefully distinguish ice from water, the Ice Center concurred, issuing a statement concluding, "This is the first recorded occurrence of the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route both being open at the same time."

First recorded? Hasn't it occured to you this happened many, many years ago without recorded instrumentation? Or is it just gospel nowadays?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
First recorded? Hasn't it occurred to you this happened many, many years ago without recorded instrumentation? Or is it just gospel nowadays?

I do not think for one moment that anyone who holds concerns about what is occurring in the Arctic circle and Greenland are ignorant of the fact of previous episodes of an 'ice free' arctic (and Antarctica for that matter) but this is not the point today.

In the past numerous 'natural' (and well studied) patterns have conspired to warm the planet (over quite long time periods) leaving the Arctic ice free. Today we have none of the major natural drivers (to my knowledge) in place to facilitate this change.

We are still, naturally, prey to the lesser climatic cycling that has an impact in the north, the NAO being the one we here most cited as having a complimentary impact on the 'warming' we now measure and of the multidecadal Pacific oscillation which influences things on the Bering straight side of things but none of these 'lesser cycles' has the impact to facilitate the scale of the changes we have been witnessing over the past century.

Even the period of ice 'recovery' ,through the globally dimmed period, did not seem to have the 'normal drivers' in place to help facilitate this thirty od year period of ice stability/cool down.

We are now starting to recognise that the augmentation of the recent Arctic warming by the NAO may have helped, both with the 'perfect storm' that brought about the 2007 record melt and with the meltdown of the glaciers on the north coast of Greenland (and the record upland melt there in 2008) /the meltdown of the NE coasts of Ellesmere Island and the loss of the major shelfs there, but the phase of NAO alone could not have brought about the scale of the changes throughout the arctic ocean and surrounding landmasses.

As such we are forced to look for a 'novel driver' behind these changes and ,to date, the majority of scientists/people who care to study the data from the past 100yrs or so (specifically the wealth of data amassed since the 'satellite age' began) can find only one culprit, that being the 'global warming' of both land masses and oceans over that period. From looking to past records we can see that CO2 (a greenhouse gas) and temperature appear to have a relationship to one another with natural warming leading to increases in CO2 levels. For our period it would seem that the tail is wagging the dog with human induced CO2 rises creating an atmospheric mix favourable to warming (as we have seen in the past with the 'step change' of temperature rises once CO2 levels increased). Sadly this does not mean we will not encounter the 'natural spike' in CO2 as sinks slow down and permafrost melts further increasing the levels of Greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

If correct we are only beginning to witness the effects of the 'tip' of the CO2 iceberg and can expect an increase in the rates of change over the next 20yrs (as more CO2 feedback loops appear and man continues to accelerate his CO2 outputs).

At times it can become quite a frustration, to some, to see the wealth of data that we have pertaining to warming (as exists) being ignored by those who wish all things to become a mere 'Balloon debate' for their own satisfaction. The changes that we have witnessed over the past 8yrs cannot be restored over a few seasons and ,it would now appear, are self reinforcing making any prospective recovery in the Arctic doubly difficult.

The loss of sea ice is a very obvious and visible signal of these changes but the real changes (that maybe more folk would care to focus on) are the loss of ice 'mass' (Esp. Greenland's 'ice dome') and the warming of the permafrosts around the arctic. Both of these changes will have a greater impact (IMHO) on humanity and our planet than the impact of sea ice loss alone(and their attendant "will it /won't it debates on ice loss/ice gain).

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The above news story was from last month. Funny how the bit about the satelite's being wrong was passed around on all the skeptic sites such as watts, warwick etc but the retraction wasn't.

The about of mischief that can be caused from a rogue email.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
The above news story was from last month. Funny how the bit about the satelite's being wrong was passed around on all the skeptic sites such as watts, warwick etc but the retraction wasn't.

The about of mischief that can be caused from a rogue email.

And by next year, when we go through the whole melt/re-freeze debacle we will encounter it again as a 'proof' no doubt.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Hmmm AGW was more rife 6000 years ago.........I knew coal fired power stations were around longer than we thought!!!

HERE

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The rapid return of ice north of Alaska seems to be associated with a deep-layer cold northeast circulation that has left Barrow on the north coast above normal in temperature so far in October but Fairbanks in central Alaska well below normal, about 4 C deg so far. Now the short-range models are showing a potent shot of arctic air making a move south into the Canadian prairies this coming weekend. I have the feeling that intense cold is going to develop over North America early this winter, and probably over Greenland as well. Still trying to fathom if this can link up to other cold regimes in Asia to give the UK any hope, or if this is just another configuration that will drive an active jet stream into the mid-Atlantic and towards Iceland and the Faeroes again. I can offer "faint hope" that such might try to develop but run into more resistance than in either of the past two winters, around mid to late January seeming to be the best window of opportunity for blocking.

Stay tuned, you may be into rebound territory as well before this is all said and done.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

This article might be of interest:

http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-...7000-years-ago/

'Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free.'

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
This article might be of interest:

http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-...7000-years-ago/

'Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free.'

Thats what i posted above :)

Roger, I think also that the jet isn't going to run as far north and we may get more 'hits' across the UK hence any zoneality will be more of the cool type rather than years gone by. If this does happen than any blocking will have greater chance of asserting itself.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
Thats what i posted above :)

BFTP

Sorry BFTP - had a late (for that, read boozy) night last night and my post-kebab reading of the thread wasn't as thorough as it would normally have been! :)

Roger, I think also that the jet isn't going to run as far north and we may get more 'hits' across the UK hence any zoneality will be more of the cool type rather than years gone by. If this does happen than any blocking will have greater chance of asserting itself.

BFTP

Rerun of last winter then as far as snow in the mountains up this neck of the woods, maybe?

Edited by LadyPakal
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