Hurricane Kyle

[Somerset Squall]

Recon have found sufficient data to upgrade 93L to TS Kyle. Awaiting the first advisory from NHC. Kyle is currently battling shear as convection is mostly lumped to the east of the centre. Shear is forecast to ease a little over the next day or so which may allow some modest development but I don't expect Kyle to become a hurricane before effecting the eastern coast of USA later this weekend. Kyle is expected to push northwards out of the eastern med and it may interact with invest 94L (which also has chances of developing into a subtropical storm). It's not certain what will happen if this occurs, or whether Kyle will actually make any landfall as yet.

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008

500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA

WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED

SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD

CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE

HUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL

A BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH

AS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE THE

CYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS

FIRST ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT

THE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE

THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7. HOWEVER THE

EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF

THE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK

DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE

EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THROUGH

THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE

TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS

ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE

TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A

SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.5N 68.3W 40 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.2N 68.3W 45 KT

24HR VT 26/1800Z 27.7N 68.7W 55 KT

36HR VT 27/0600Z 31.0N 69.0W 60 KT

48HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W 65 KT

72HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 29/1800Z 50.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 30/1800Z 53.0N 53.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[johnholmes]

Recon have found sufficient data to upgrade 93L to TS Kyle. Kyle is expected to push northwards out of the eastern med

assume you meant Atlantic?

[Somerset Squall]

assume you meant Atlantic?

LOL- I meant Caribbean, don't know what made me right med. That would have been scary if it was the case!

[Cookie]

finally another system.

Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

the image below may change but it shows a cat one very far north at the time I post this! seems rather odd

[londonsnow]

i find it hard to believe that we will have a cat 1 so far north.

[smich]

I think it's due to the fact it's travelling quite fast. Good chance of some strengthening in the short term whilst still over the warm Gulf stream, but when it emerges beyond the waters are a lot cooler.

However, as it's heading North quite fast, significant weakening is unlikely to occur before the predicted landfall.

Steve M

[Somerset Squall]

Nothing unusual there, as Smich says Kyle will be passing over the warm gulf stream which may allow Kyle to become a hurricane, even that far north. Very much colder waters lie to the north of the Gulf Stream so if it does attain hurricane status it won't be for long on that fast northwards track.

I'm still not entirely convinced Kyle will become a hurricane. He is obviously still a very sheared tropical storm and whilst shear may breifly ease it's not certain. Shear is expected to increase again beyond 24hrs, so if Kyle wants to be a hurricane it's going to have to do it sooner rather than later. Having said that, Hanna managed to become a hurricane in sheared conditions.

[Somerset Squall]

Kyle is probably now weakening. Intensity is at 50kts but the lowest pressure was 994mb, and this has now increased to 1003mb. Kyle is having a really hard time keeping convection over the centre and the western quadrant of Kyle is virtually convection free. Kyle is wobbling northwards and any more strengthening will only occur if that strong westerly shear eases.

[Roger J Smith]

This is not unusual, extratropical transition usually begins around 42 N near the boundary of the Gulf Stream and the colder Labrador current waters near shore (NS and Maine). Quite a few systems attain enough forward speed to reach Canadian shores before going extra-tropical, Juan in 2003 was a borderline cat 2/3 hurricane when it hit Halifax at this time of year.

I am also skeptical that Kyle will become a hurricane, but if it does it will probably retain marginal cat-1 intensity until just before landfall.

There is some chance of this storm veering off track to the west as some of the steering components are currently retrograde. It would not be a total shock if Kyle's track were to shift towards Maine or even a Mass. landfall but I am currently thinking it will be in eastern Maine rather than western NB, and between Bar Harbor and Eastport, late Sunday night (29:09z).

[Cookie]

ahh thanks for answering that roger and somerset

Storm Alert issued at 26 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Canada

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[smich]

You're welcome Cookie <_<

Steve M

[Cookie]

sorry and you to smich man second apology of the night

[Jayces]

According to the latest advisery Kyle is just below hurricane strength and is expected to become a hurricane today.

Yet the thread started with the forescast that he most likely won't make hurricane status and is weakening, never underestimate the power of mother nature or her fickleness. ;-)

[Roger J Smith]

Water temps at ocean buoy 44004 at 39 N 71 W concern me ... these have peaked at 28 C and remained there for several days now ... quite often this site reports 23-25 C water temps ... so with the strong southerly flow developing and the other disturbance well out of the way, Kyle could now surprise us all and flare to cat-2 or even cat-3 intensity ... it is about to accelerate north too with winds very close to cat-1 levels now. Add that forward speed and the east side of the storm could attain very high speeds even if development is not prolific.

The other variable to watch is track, I sense the wobbles next 24-36h may bring it very close to Cape Cod although I still expect a landfall near Maine-NB border at about 09z Monday.

[Cookie]

new update

storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

Canada

probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[smich]

sorry and you to smich man second apology of the night

Cookie,

Consider yourself forgiven! :lol:

My son James got up first thing this morning to check Kyle and immediately predicted CAT1, possibly 2.

He's only 6 - I must try and get him an interview at the NHC!

Still over warm water, and expect it to intensify later today.

Steve M

[Roger J Smith]

Umm, my bad ... :lol: ... the buoy I was talking about apparently drifted off its moorings in August and somehow managed to drift south to a position near the Bahamas. That explains the 28 C water temp ... meanwhile, buoy 41001 also shown on maps near the track later today has drifted east to about 60 W so it is hardly any better, although it will be nicely located if the mid-ocean storm goes tropical over the next few days.

Meanwhile, a buoy which did manage to remain in position was right under Kyle's centre a few hours ago. It is moving quite fast now and with this new (valid) information I will go back to saying marginal cat-1, a buoy off Cape Cod is showing 20 C air and 16 C water temps, about normal for this situation.

Looks then like a landfall very close to Maine-NB border still around 07-09 z Monday. This would be 0300-0500 ADT the local time zone in NB at least, I think most of Maine is in the eastern time zone.

Looks like there might be a name coming for the mid-ocean low which is drifting west at present. This one may not be Laura though because there are a couple of other candidates elsewhere.

[kaja]

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 27 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[James M]

So the sixth Hurricane of the season.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG

WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR. WHILE SOME

OF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT...THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS

COVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT

HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE

CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WITH THE CENTER

REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD

MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.

KYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH

THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20. KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY

NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE MODEL

GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL

EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...

AND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND

CALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW

BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA. SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT

SHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT...THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL

FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR

AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK

SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME.

KYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE

STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH WOULD

INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD

ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS

FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL

FOLLOW SUIT...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR

AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL. AFTER

LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...WITH THE

CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.

THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Somerset Squall]

Kyle is a very lopsided hurricane with a non-classical appearance. Most of the convection remains sheared to the northeast and as far as I can see, there is no sign of an eye. However, winds are strong enough to warrant Kyle being classified as a weak hurricane, even if everything else looks far from it (reletively high pressure for instance: 995mb). Due to the fast northerly motion, Kyle is still expected to be tropical at landfall, despite moving over cold waters of around 15C, north of the Gulf Stream.

[MAF]

Next NOAA advisory in 15 minutes (0900Z) will see if things have changed much for Kyle

[MAF]

latest Sat image

Courtesy NOAA