Tropical Storm Laura

[Cookie]

I don't know weather it's worth starting a thread for this, but seems it got named.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200812.html

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I don't know weather it's worth starting a thread for this, but seems it got named.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200812.html

And it also seems come Saturday it will be knocking on our door! ... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml...?large#contents

[Mondy]

Been watching Saturday's "event" since early yesterday morning. Nothing much changed. Appears as if ex-Kyle and ex-Laura merge North Atlantic and then deepen rapidly as the "new" system knocks on our doors.

[Thunder Snow]

She seems to take quite a sharp turn towards the UK.

Been watching Saturday's "event" since early yesterday morning. Nothing much changed. Appears as if ex-Kyle and ex-Laura merge North Atlantic and then deepen rapidly as the "new" system knocks on our doors.

I bet we are in for a real soacking

[johnholmes]

correct

the actual track is open to a fair amount of doubt near the uk, 3 models with somewhat different versions, so as is often the case it may well be down to T+48 before any real accuracy is possible for both track and depth.

[Cookie]

She seems to take quite a sharp turn towards the UK.

anything to do with jet by any chance?

[liquidjp]

anything to do with jet by any chance?

Could be...

depending on how far north into the jet it goes, we could be looking at some very "summery" weather this weekend...

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting storm is Laura. It's a long way north and looks like it may be gaining more tropical characteristics with deep convection building around the centre and good banding features, particularly in the eastern quadrant. As Laura is also at 55kts, it has a small shot at becoming a hurricane, especially as waters are warm enough for the next 18 hours or so and Laura is rapidly increasing in organisation. Looks as if Laura will be a big player in regards to our weather as some of you have mentioned. The first proper gale of the Autumn perhaps?

[Somerset Squall]

Nice image of Laura from Wunderground:

[MAF]

well only a couple of hours before the next NOAA forecast/Advisory so perhaps we will see if the track is still for it to head towards UK

[Roger J Smith]

I notice the GEM takes Laura around a four-day loop towards northwest Spain but still goes for a UK windstorm event mostly from remnants of Kyle. The GFS is adjusting as we go, at one point it was starting to suggest the eventual complex low would track further south than current runs, and bring strong winds only to southern England. Now it is back to where it was about two days ago but with more details showing up, a two-part wind event that peaks for the first time late Saturday then has a secondary for later Sunday.

As the timing from my research is showing peaks of energy around 4:11z and 23z, then 5:06z, I think this may be getting closer, and Scotland in particular may be seeing very strong winds from the eventual storm.

Laura should phase with remnants of Kyle which are now already quite weak and jammed into a slow-moving front over southern Labrador (the remnant circulation is near Sept-Isles Quebec). This will squeeze through a block north of Newfoundland while Laura circles around to the north, and phasing should begin about late Wednesday through Thursday.

If Laura reached cat-2 intensity at some point it might have enough staying power to remain a separate entity and be swept along in the flow, but I would expect this decaying entity to be closer to the Channel than northwest Spain. I think the GEM probably overplayed the cold outbreak over the British Isles on Thursday, the GFS is already downgrading that by one or two thickness contours today (the 528 was showing up to northeast England yesterday, now it only reaches Malin Head before backing off). Still, the more likely evolution is for all the energy to transfer over 48 hours until Laura becomes just a frontal wave embedded in the northern low which would be more like Kyle's remnant. There would probably be quite a strong low in any case even if these tropical items fail to sustain themselves. From my perspective, these tropical systems are not "causing" the eventual low, they are just features of it.

[MAF]

So what sort of windspeeds do you envisage when it reaches UK Roger??

[Cookie]

So what sort of windspeeds do you envisage when it reaches UK Roger??

possibly to early to tell yet mate B)

[dellboy84]

Was doing my usual checks on the national hurricane centre today and seen an interesting subtropical storm named laura which seems to be heading our way, i dont know what the chances of this are but looking at the 5 day forcost for this storm we should get some affects - anyone know more?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?5day#contents - nhc link.

[Andy Bown]

She has had some mentions in the Model Discussion thread in the General Autumn area.

[Somerset Squall]

Laura has now become fully tropical, as the strongest winds are now occuring near the centre and the storm has a warm core. However, Laura should begin to turn extratropical tomorrow as waters become increasingly colder on the forecast track. Still looks like the extratropical remnants could hit us this weekend.

[Cookie]

my word!!!

Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LAURA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Faeroe Islands

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Scotland

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Iceland

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

England

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Northern Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours

Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Isle of Man

probability for TS is 50% in about 117 hours

Wales

probability for TS is 45% in about 117 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Reykjavik (64.1 N, 21.9 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 117 hours

Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 117 hours

Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 117 hours

Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 117 hours

York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 117 hours

Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 117 hours

Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 117 hours

Hull (53.8 N, 0.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 117 hours

Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 117 hours

Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 117 hours

Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 117 hours

Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 117 hours

Birmingham (52.5 N, 1.9 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[londonsnow]

my word indeed!

[Cookie]

we need to get a senior forecaster in here.

[MAF]

we need to get a senior forecaster in here.

wouldn't a young one be just as good? :o

not sure a forecaster will differ much from what you have posted by the NOAA/NHC. they usually seem pretty reliable

ALTHOUGH LAURA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL

CYCLONE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME THERMAL ADVECTION IS

BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR STRATUS CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE WEST

SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...

AND LAURA COULD BE FULLY NON-TROPICAL IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS

NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 21C AND IS QUICKLY LOSING

ITS TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCE...SO SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

NOAA Discussion #7

[Coast]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008

1100 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2008

...LAURA EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST OR ABOUT 330

MILES...530 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LAURA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 6

TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...43.6 N...48.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 AM AST.

[johnholmes]

the spread of tracks with Laura illustrates just how difficult it is going to be to get the position, intensity and track right.

It may well be a 48 hour situation before we can be pretty sure of any of them.

[Roger J Smith]

It looks like a jumble of bits and pieces of energy through the weekend, with remnants of Laura somewhere in the mix. It looks more like a moderate wind event than a major blow so far. Into the middle of next week, the flow tightens and there are some pretty interesting developments near southern England, from this far out, that may produce a more active wind storm.

[Coast]

Into the middle of next week, the flow tightens and there are some pretty interesting developments near southern England, from this far out, that may produce a more active wind storm.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to have off then!

In light of Hurricane Kyle charging to Canada on Sunday and Subtropical Storm Laura now flirting with Greenland and the United Kingdom, you have to wonder what’s going on in the North Atlantic. Is there a reason tropical activity is firing up so far to the north while the normal storm development region in the deep tropics remains quiet (at least for the moment)? Has global warming already changed atmospheric patterns so dramatically that residents in places like New York City or Boston will have to start buying hurricane shutters? In short, is the entire Earth turning into a sauna?

Nope, said senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center.

“You see these systems forming at high latitudes every year,” he said. “It shows you the Atlantic basin can produce tropical storms or hurricanes over a large area.” On the other hand, he said, it was somewhat unusual for Laura to form as far north as it did. He said the waters were “just warm enough” and the wind shear relaxed at just the right moment.

“It was in the right place at the right time,” he said.

At 5 a.m. today, Laura was 485 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, Canada, moving north at 13 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. The projected path continues to aim the system toward Ireland and Scotland. If it holds to that forecast, it could potentially surprise Nessie, the Loch Ness Monster

weblogs.sun-sentinel.com

[Cookie]

thanks for feedback guys.

new update sees the threat lowered

Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm LAURA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Scotland

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Northern Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

England

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

the Isle of Man

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

the Faeroe Islands

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Wales

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours

Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours

Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours

Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.