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Hurricane Marie


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

After a lull of about 3 weeks, a new storm has formed in the East Pacific with initial intensity at 45kts. Marie has deep convection over the centre and some good banding features evident. Shear is expected to ease so Marie may strengthen, I wouldn't like to say how strong Marie will get but the NHC are plumping for 60kts before she meets cooler waters. Marie will head westwards away from land out into the open pacific waters. If track shifts southwards at all then Marie may have the time to become a hurricane.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted
I thought this was going to be an Atlantic storm at first

LOL- it appears both basins are roughly on the same letter of the alphabet :)

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Marie has remained a 45kt tropical storm for the last 36hrs. Marie hasn't strengthened due to the low level centre failing to align itself properly with the deepest convection. However, it looks like it might be doing that now, so some modest strengthening is likely in the next 24hrs. I say modest because the waters aren't amazingly warm under the storm (26C) and cooler waters wait to greet Marie if it makes the mistake of jogging north. Additonally, the atmosphere is a little more stable to the west of Marie which is where she is tracking. These factors won't be severe enough to cause weakening just yet, and the NHC are expecting a peak of 50kts in the next 24hrs (it looks like Marie is about that now). Beyond 24hrs, Marie is expected to turn west-northwestward due to a steering ridge building northeast of Hawaii which will interfere with the westward progression of Marie. Consequently, Marie will move over colder waters which will induce weakening. A westwards track should resume beyond 48hrs, but by this time Marie will be north of the large sea temperature gradient (which Marie is just south of now) and should continue to weaken.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Marie remains a small storm but has improved in organisation this morning, and intensity has now been upped to 50kts. The stronger Marie gets, obviously the longer it will take to weaken over the cooler waters it will move over in a few days time. There was hints of an eye earlier but these have since dissapeared, and it is quite unlikely Marie will become a hurricane. The core is quite tight though, so there may be a little more intensification: NHC are now going for a peak of 55kts.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Marie's tight core has allowed her winds to strengthen, and intensity is now 60kts. Chances for Marie becoming a hurricane has increased significantly, as an eye is once again trying to form. Marie could become a hurricane later today under low shear and marginal ocean heat content. Marie is really making good use of the marginal conditions, and it appears here small size is really helping her intensify more than expected.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

An increasingly well defined eye has persisted over the last few hours, and Marie has become a hurricane, with intensity now at 65kts. Marie is in a low shear environment with reasonably warm waters beneath it, so a little more intensification is possible. Beyond 24 hours, waters cool and the atmosphere becomes more stable, so Marie should slowly weaken on the general westward track.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

A ridge has developed between Marie and TD15E, therefore, westwards motion has been stopped and Marie is drifting northwards. Intensity has increased to 70kts, but Marie will probably start weakening pretty soon as it's now encountering colder waters. Marie is expected to resume westwards motion soon but is likely to remain over cooler waters. The NHC forecast is for Marie to slowly spin down over the next few days. Shear will remain low, so weakening will be slow. If Marie manages to dip southwards again, it may find warmer waters once more- an interesting possibility as the environment is otherwise favourable for Marie.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

As forecasted, Marie is weakening over colder waters. Stable air is also causing weakening to be faster. There is little convection left in association with Marie, and intensity has reduced to 45kts. Marie will continue to weaken, and NHC have her degenerating into a remnant low in 48hrs time, though this may well occur sooner.

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Marie is fighting the dry air and cool sea temps. A lone cell of convection continues to persist near the centre. Marie is now a 30kt tropical depression, and is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow.

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