Major Hurricane Norbert

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A bit of a beast this one.

new update

Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2008 15:00 GMT

Hurricane NORBERT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

Don (26.5 N, 109.0 W)

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Navojoa (27.6 N, 109.5 W)

probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours

Los Mochis (25.8 N, 109.0 W)

probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Norbert is now moving into the Gulf of California as a 85kt, cat 2 hurricane. You can still see the eye on satellite imagery and the satellite loops show the eye of Norbert moving across the Baja California peninsula very well. Landfall in Mexico is expected to occur later tonight as a cat 2, then rapid weakening will begin as Norbert encounters rugged terrain.

Link to loops: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

News: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,436406,00.html

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thanks for the links mate

[Somerset Squall]

Norbert's circulation is dissipating over the rugged terrain of Mexico. It's still likely to enhance rainfall across SW USA over the next couple days.