Tropical Storm Odile

[Cookie]

another system

Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression 16E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Guatemala

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92E has finally become a tropical depression in the far Eastern Pacific. Intensity is currently 30kts and strengthening is predicted. Looking at satellite imagery, there isn't all that much deep convection over the centre at the moment, but there is some good formative banding features, which have probably supported the upgrade.

Shear is low, and sea temps are very warm in this part of the East Pacific, so intensification is predicted. Until the depression can maintain deeper convection over the centre, strengthening will be slow. 16E is expected to push west-northwestwards along the southwestern periphery of a ridge over Mexico. NHC are prediciting the new cyclone to be at 60kts in 4 days time, as favourable conditions persist on that west-northwest heading. This may have to be revised upwards in my opinion, if convection forms more readily over the centre which will facilitate faster development. There is a small risk of landfall on the coast of Mexico if 16E jogs to the north at all but it is currently forecast to remain out to sea. However, outer rainbands may provide some heavy rainfall to the coast.

Edited October 8, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

TD16E has become much better organised today, with convection now wrapping itself around the centre. The depression has been upgraded to a tropical storm, named Odile. Intensity is at 45kts, and Odile may become a hurricane, though probably not as strong as Norbert. Odile doesn't have brilliant conditions ahead, but they aren't exactly hostile either. Shear is set to slowly increase over the coming days, but should only be strong enough to cause weakening by around 72hrs. Odile will be passing over waters mixed up by Norbert (thus cooler) so this is the reason NHC aren't forecasting the storm to get much stronger than minimal hurricane status. We shall see.

Odile has been moving westwards instead of west-northwestward over the last few hours, therfore the threat of landfall for the coast of Mexico is decreasing. Odile is forecast to remain out to see for now but will still need closely watching over the coming days. We all know how Norbert intensified a lot more than predicted so we can't rule it out to happen here.

[Somerset Squall]

After a convectional lull overnight, thunderstorms have blown up again over the centre, and intensity is increased to 50kts. Odile was possibly helped by absorbing the remnant moisture from the ex atlantic storm Marco. Odile is expected to remain in an environment of moderate shear for the next 72hrs, which should allow somw slow and modest strengthening. However, there are two scenarios which could stop intensification into a hurricane. Firstly, any significant jog to the north will bring Odile onshore the coast of Mexico. Secondly, if Odile dips further south it will be running over colder waters upwelled by Norbert. The NHC are only expected a peak at minimal hurricane strength (65kts), but if Odile manages to move directly between the cooler waters and the land then it may strengthen more than expected. A bit of long shot, but a possibilty nonetheless.

[Somerset Squall]

Odile hasn't got much stronger than yesterday, intensity is at 55kts. Odile lacks good banding features and is rather close to land, which may be hindering development. Odile is expected to deliver heavy rains to Mexico over the next 36 hours or so, before a strong ridge builds to the north and sends Odile westwards or west-southwestwards away from the coast. Even this isn't set in stone though so Odile will need closely watching. It's just as possible that Odile could wander inland, it's a close situation. Here's the current track forecast from the NHC:

If Odile heads southwestwards, it may remain on very warm waters instead of finding cooler waters like most East Pacific storms do on their west-northwest tracks (having said that sea temps are above average near Baja at the moment, hence why Norbert has done so well). However, shear looks like it will be high so slow weakening is forecast.

[Cookie]

thanks for good updates mate

Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ODILE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Playa Azul (18.0 N, 102.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks Cookie.

For reasons unknown, Odile has collapsed. Convection has rapidly decreased and the LLC has become disorganised. Poor old Avila from NHC seems surprised, as am I, that this has happened, with no clear reason. My only guess would be land interaction, but then Odile is not THAT close to the coast. Intensity has been reduced to 40kts, and this may be generous. Therefore, the shear forecast to effect the system as it pulls away from Mexico may well dissipate the storm. Avila's remark at the end of the forecast discussion says it all:

ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE

EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.

Whether Odile will ever recover from the surprise weakening is debatable but of course possible. We'll have to wait and see.

[Cookie]

it will be interesting to see sorry for lack of updates, this side of atlantic has been keeping me very busy

[Somerset Squall]

Odile is definitely interacting with land now, and has weakened to 25kts. Tropical Depression Odile is expected to weaken to a remnant low over land later today. Odile's remnants will then drift westwards back over water but conditions look unfavourable for re-development.