Tropical Storm Nana

[James M]

From 97L we know have Tropical Storm Nana, doesn't look like she will last long though.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEGRADED SOME THIS

AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION FOR A

LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO CONSIDER IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING THE

AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO

THE WEST OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO WESTERLY

SHEAR. AN ASCAT OVERPASS FROM 12Z INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35

KT. GIVEN THE TYPICAL LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE CYCLONE IS

DECLARED A TROPICAL STORM...THE FOURTEENTH OF THE 2008 SEASON. THE

LONG-TERM SURVIVAL OF NANA SEEMS BLEAK AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL

WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE

SHOWS WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS NANA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48

HOURS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT OCCURRED SOONER.

NANA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/6 KT. THE

TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE

SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF

THE RIDGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST

AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER BROWN

Edited October 12, 2008 by James M

[Somerset Squall]

As the NHC states, new born Nana may not be long for this world. Very strong shear is buffeting the storm, leaving the LLC partially exposed, with deep convection seperating itself to the east. If anything, Nana may encounter even stronger shear in the next day or so, which is why NHC dissipate Nana so quickly, and I agree. Could be wrong though, some storms do cope and fight better than others, but bottom line is Nana is in very hostile conditions for a tropical cyclone to prosper.

[Cookie]

welcome nana!

the wounder ground image goes along with what u guys have been saying

[*Stormforce~beka*]

000

WTNT34 KNHC 130831

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM NANA ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008

500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

...NANA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015

MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

NANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...

AND NANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER

TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.6 N...39.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Somerset Squall]

Nana has weakened to a tropical depression, as forecast. Persistant strong shear will likely dissipate Nana very soon. Nana is not likely to threaten land.

[Cookie]

game over for nana by the looks of things

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Bye Bye Nana ...

000

WTNT34 KNHC 140830

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008

500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...NANA DISSIPATES...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1285

MILES...2065 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1300

MILES...2090 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST UNTIL THE REMNANT

LOW OF NANA DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN

BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Thunder Snow]

what if her remain develop again, then what happens.

[Somerset Squall]

what if her remain develop again, then what happens.

It's possible, but unlikely as shear is set to remain strong. Shear prevents convection from forming over the centre, and can tear apart a tropical low. So unless shear eases, Nana won't redevelop.

[Cookie]

what if her remain develop again, then what happens.

we will yet again be proved wrong by mother nature