Major Hurricane Omar

[londonsnow]

well TD 15 has formed and is forecast to become a hurricane as it heads northeastwards over the next few days. maybe this will be omar, but its life will i guess be shortlived as it heads further north

[Cookie]

another Atlantic storm

storm alert

Storm Alert issued at 13 Oct, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL15 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the British Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 5% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Puerto Rico

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[MAF]

heading into cooler waters may reduce the life of this one, worth keeping an eye on though

Of course, it will pass Puerto Rico first and may well be a danger to them.

[Hurricane Debby]

Commentary & Updates by: Mark Sudduth, HurricaneTrack.com Founder, Editor

Email me at: mailroom@hurricanetrack.com UPDATED: 10:45 am EDT, October 13, 2008

TD #15 FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN- COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AND IMPACT PUERTO RICO, VIRGIN ISLANDS

98L is now TD #15 with top winds of 35 mph. The NHC made the upgrade just a little while ago. The forecast shows modest strengthening and the depression could become a hurricane before all is said and done. Most of the model guidance, as well as the official forecast from the NHC, shows the cyclone moving northwest for a short period of time and then hooking back to the north and northeast with a possible crossing of Puerto Rico later this week. Before any of the stronger winds arrive, the main threat will be extremely heavy rains and this will almost certainly lead to significant problems for islands such as Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This is a slow moving weather feature and it will have time to dump copious amounts of rain- people need to be aware of this and prepare accordingly. A recon plane will be in the area later today to provide more info on the depression and determine whether or not it has become a tropical storm. If/when it does, the name will be "Omar".

We are also watching newly designated 99L in the western Caribbean- something (the potential for development) we have been talking about here for almost a week. The pattern is ripe and this is all completely in line with the busy hurricane season we are experiencing. It is going to be a busy week ahead for sure. I'll post more here later this afternoon.

UPDATED: 6:10 am EDT, October 13, 2008

TS NANA RUNNING OUT OF TIME AS NEW DEPRESSION LIKELY FORMING IN THE CARIBBEAN

The NHC began issuing advisories on TS Nana yesterday afternoon and may cease those advisories later today. The reason? Strong upper level winds are tearing the clouds away from the center of the storm- which is located well out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. It is a concern for shipping interests only and should dissipate over the next day or so.

In the Caribbean Sea, we have a much larger issue to deal with. There appears to be a new tropical depression forming in the eastern Caribbean and we should know more about it later today as a Hurricane Hunter crew is scheduled to fly in to investigate the system. Most of the computer models indicate that this will develop and move off towards either Hispaniola or Puerto Rico on its way out to sea. This is a major concern because of its slow moving nature and its ability to dump excessive rain. The islands of the Caribbean have received more than enough rain this hurricane season and more, especiall from a slow moving system, is bad news. This could end up being a big news maker not for the wind and surge but once again for the rain and flooding. People in the region need to take every precaution they can for this developing situation. As I mentioned, we'll know more about the structure of the disturbance later today once recon gets in there.

To the west, in the western Caribbean, there is also a flare-up of showers and thunderstorms that could organize in to something worth watching. The models have been trying to develop something here off and on for the last week. This is all quite expected and part of the overall favorable pattern for this portion of the current hurricane season. Plus, these regions are favored this time of year in any hurricane season. While there are no threats to the United States as of now, the main issues will be to some of the land areas of the eastern Caribbean Sea for now and possibly the western Caribbean later in the week. I'll post another update here as soon as the info from the recon plane becomes availableCourtesy of Hurricane Track

[MAF]

thanks Debby

NOAA discussion for TD15

000

WTNT45 KNHC 131441

TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS

DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED

AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO

START ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE

PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE

DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND

VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL

INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR

STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE

ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12

TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME

MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF

FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR

PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS

DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR

A DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT

PERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-

LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED

TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS

TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE

TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC

THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND

ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.8N 69.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W 35 KT

24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W 50 KT

48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W 65 KT

120HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Matty M]

Could still head WEST, 2 go for an west movement.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, October produces another depression in the Atlantic. This one is likely to bring further flooding rains to Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola before lifting northeastwards into the open Atlantic. Shear will fluctuate between moderate and high and strengthening should occur when it relaxes for any amount of time. Ocean heat content is high, thus TD15 is currently forecast to become a hurricane after clearing Puerto Rico. Agreed with the sentiments above, it shouldn't be a hurricane for long as it will be pushing briskly northeastwards into stronger shear and lower sea temperatures. It is a serious threat to the eastern Carribbean though.

[londonsnow]

agreed somerset, puerto rico looks to be a little vunerable to flooding, but after that td15/hurricane omar will decline in the atlantic. still, i wasnt expecting such a busy october.

[Cookie]

an update

Storm Alert issued at 13 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL15 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the British Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 5% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Puerto Rico

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

the Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL15 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Puerto Rico

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

the British Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

the Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Anguilla

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[londonsnow]

Well we have TS Omar. Some further strengthening forecast after he's passed over eastern puerto and a poss hurricane after that

Edited October 14, 2008 by grab my graupels

[James M]

It's getting quite busy over there.

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY

WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED

IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE

INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT

SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS

SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE

NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL

DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH

TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF

CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE

INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL

AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY

PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...

AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST

TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.

NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR

GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK

...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR

EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION

SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.

IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE

THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS

WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE

FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW

PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS

THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD

OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER

THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2

AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF

MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Is it possible we could have the thread merged with the other one?

Edited October 14, 2008 by James M

[Somerset Squall]

It's been a bit slow, but TD15 is indeed now Tropical Storm Omar. Omar has some good deep convection over the centre which will help further development. Shear has eased and waters are very warm beneath the storm so Omar is expected to intensify. However, as far as motion goes, Omar is not following forecasts. The storm is actuallty moving east-southeastwards at the moment, towards South America. However, Omar is still expected to turn northeast, but because of the eastward component to the motion, Omar may miss a direct landfall on Puerto Rico. It won't make much difference though, Omar will continue to bring some torrential rains to the eastern Caribbean over the next few days before moving out into the open Atlantic. Omar is expected to become a hurricane as it clears Puerto Rico and move northeastwards at an increased speed. This will eventually bring Omar into stronger shear and cooler waters, though these unfavourable conditions are a long way off yet so Omar has ample oppurtunity to become a little stronger than 65kts which is what the NHC are forecasting currently.

[londonsnow]

Omar on the brink of becoming a hurricane. according to the noaa sustained winds are at 70 mph. omar is expected to be cat 2 by the time it reaches the leeward islands. some rapid intensification on the cards

Edited October 14, 2008 by londonsnow

[Somerset Squall]

Omar on the brink of becoming a hurricane. according to the noaa sustained winds are at 70 mph. omar is expected to be cat 2 by the time it reaches the leeward islands. some rapid intensification on the cards

Indeed LS, Omar is now at 60kts, and there are hints of an eye in latest satellite imagery. Low shear and hot waters are facilitating rapid intensification, it's even possible that Omar may become stronger than a cat 2. Omar is a major threat to the eastern Caribbean.

[gobbyash]

Hi, we're going to Antigua on Friday and I would love to see a tropical storm.

Do you think it will miss Antigua and do you think it will be all over by the time that we land on Friday 1:30pm Eastern Caribbean Time - 6:30pm British time??

http://www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=52075

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

http://www.antiguasun.com/paper/?as=view&a...08&ac=Local

Cheers

gobbyash

[londonsnow]

i'm not familiar with the islands of the eastern caribbean. omar is, as you say somerset, ripe for rapid intensification, as backed up by the noaa, so one to keep a close eye on. organisation has improved a good deal. we shall see

[Somerset Squall]

Hi, we're going to Antigua on Friday and I would love to see a tropical storm.

Do you think it will miss Antigua and do you think it will be all over by the time that we land on Friday 1:30pm Eastern Caribbean Time - 6:30pm British time??

Omar will probably be just about clear into the Atlantic by that point, unless he remains slow moving like currently. Antigua is likely to be affected by Omar in the next two days, most likely as a hurricane.

[gobbyash]

Omar will probably be just about clear into the Atlantic by that point, unless he remains slow moving like currently. Antigua is likely to be affected by Omar in the next two days, most likely as a hurricane.

Oh dear, we have a friend who fly's there tomorrow

Where can I view the best images/information about its development??

Many thanks

gobbyash

Edited October 14, 2008 by gobbyash

[Somerset Squall]

Oh dear, we have a friend who fly's there tomorrow

Where can I view the best images/information about its development??

Many thanks

gobbyash

A few links I use:

NRL

NHC

UNISYS

WUNDERGROUND

CIMSS

[Cookie]

information on places likely to be affected

Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the British Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

the Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

St. Kitts and Nevis

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Puerto Rico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Antigua and Barbuda

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Montserrat

probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

Omar is now a rapidly developing Hurricane with winds due to exceed 100mph, it could hit PR but might just sneak to the east.

Longer term, its very likely to pass over the UK at some point next weekTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...

HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS

BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES

ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA

OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.

IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT

AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR

SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO

A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD

ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A

60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A

LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON

INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS

BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING

SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND

GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL

SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE

CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT

Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the British Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

the Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Puerto Rico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

St. Kitts and Nevis

probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Antigua and Barbuda

probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

Montserrat

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE

ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...

SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND

MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...

455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD

MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY

THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105

MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES

OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND

NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20

INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN

LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN

ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL

AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE

ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH

EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...67.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[londonsnow]

latest recon and reports on omar courtesy of the noaa suggest sustained winds at 80mph now and heading towards cat 2.