Major Hurricane Omar

[londonsnow]

latest recon and reports on omar courtesy of the noaa suggest sustained winds at 80mph now and heading towards cat 2.

edit now at 85 mph and cat 2 pretty inevitable

[Cookie]

new update

Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

the British Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Puerto Rico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

St. Kitts and Nevis

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Antigua and Barbuda

probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours

Montserrat

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Somerset Squall]

Omar continues to intensify, although a little slower than last night. Intensity is currently at 80kts, just shy of cat 2 status. Conditions are not ideal, but at the same time not hostile either, so further slow strengthening is forecast. Westerly shear has increased over Omar, and a little dry air is beginning to penetrate the central dense overcast feature. You can see very good banding features on the south, east and north sides of the hurricane, but the west side is rather bare, which indicates the higher shear. However, Omar should still strengthen as the shear is only moderate and he should be able to mix out some of the dry air. There's still a chance Omar may become a major hurricane.

[Cookie]

nice image mate

Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

the British Virgin Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Puerto Rico

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

Guadeloupe

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

St. Kitts and Nevis

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Antigua and Barbuda

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

Montserrat

probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[MAF]

Latest update from NOAA/NHC

OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS OMAR MOVES THROUGH THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

full text here > http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/160306.shtml?

[MAF]

Latest Sat image

courtesy NOAA/NHC

[Iceberg]

Pressure has continued to fall since then as well with the latest Vortex showing 961mb also some sub 960's as well.

The area of high winds is small, but considering this has only just spun up it's doing very well

000

URNT12 KNHC 160420

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152008

A. 16/040100Z

B. 17 deg 38 min N

064 deg 25 min W

C. 700 mb 2788 m

D. 105 kt

E. 250 deg 11 nm

F. 024 deg 107 kt

G. 250 deg 011 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 9 C/ 3057 m

J. 17 C/ 3051 m

K. NA / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. E14/34/30

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF308 0515A OMAR OB 08

MAX OUTBOUND WIND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT NE QUAD 040500Z

PSBL HAIL AND M0D TURBC INBOUND

JUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER

INVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT...AND

AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB. ON THIS

BASIS...OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE

INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA

ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION...SHOWING

INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL.

[Iceberg]

Another quick update flight winds of 132Kt and a very rapid pressure fall to 955 would indicate a CAT 4.Also that RI is very probably happening.GFDL00Z this this to 125Kt surface this morning and I wouldn't like to disagree, currentlyat 115Kt surface IMO and a CAT 4.

054130 1813N 06404W 6930 02952 9799 +068 +068 071087 092 091 025 00

054200 1811N 06403W 6973 02870 9765 +077 +077 077078 084 093 021 03

054230 1810N 06402W 6990 02828 9711 +102 +080 065068 076 095 012 03

054300 1808N 06401W 6990 02794 9610 +168 +080 053037 050 099 006 03

054330 1807N 06400W 6995 02773 9559 +200 +080 078016 022 074 005 03

054400 1805N 06359W 6976 02792 9546 +208 +080 206016 023 036 003 03

054430 1804N 06358W 6915 02881 9564 +198 +080 198031 033 047 003 03

054500 1803N 06356W 6975 02812 9581 +188 +080 208040 045 052 004 03

054530 1803N 06354W 6955 02852 9617 +166 +080 199050 056 055 004 00

054600 1802N 06353W 6985 02827 9642 +155 +080 195065 071 054 004 00

054630 1802N 06353W 6985 02827 9652 +164 +080 195091 104 073 005 00

054700 1803N 06348W 6949 02923 9702 +153 +080 196125 132 082 008 00

054730 1803N 06346W 6995 02918 9781 +123 +080 185114 124 081 008 03

054800 1803N 06345W 6955 02967 9773 +133 +080 184107 108 082 002 03

054830 1802N 06345W 6976 02940 9783 +130 +080 185106 108 084 003 03

054900 1801N 06344W 6969 02955 9785 +131 +080 185110 112 082 002 03

054930 1800N 06344W 6960 02959 9782 +130 +080 185112 115 085 001 00

$$

[Cookie]

new update

Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Anguilla

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the British Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 95% currently

Guadeloupe

probability for TS is 95% currently

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for TS is 95% currently

the Virgin Islands

probability for TS is 85% currently

St. Kitts and Nevis

probability for TS is 70% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Antigua and Barbuda

probability for TS is 50% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

Well they admit Omar was a CAT 4 with 115Kt but he has since weakened still a very strong CAT 3..

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF

OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132

AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE

EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS

OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT

TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115

KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS

DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER

DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS

IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE

GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS

STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.

[gobbyash]

I don't like the look of this over Antigua.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

http://www.stmaartenlibrary.org/images/kaart_caribbean.jpg

Guess there will be landslides etc when we arrive tomorrow.

gobby

[gobbyash]

I don't like the look of this over Antigua.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

http://www.stmaartenlibrary.org/images/kaart_caribbean.jpg

Guess there will be landslides etc when we arrive tomorrow.

gobby

Some interesting (on the ground) reports and pictures.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

gobbyash

[Somerset Squall]

After probably attaining cat 4 status this morning, Omar's intensity has taken a downward dive to 75kts, making him now a cat 1. Strong shear and dry air has blasted Omar from the west leaving the LLC exposed to the west of some shallow looking convection. Omar may be downgraded to a tropical storm tonight, which is amazing considering how strong he was this morning. Further high shear awaits Omar, along with cooling waters on the very quick northeastwards track into the Atlantic, therefore re-intensification is not expected and further weakening the likely outcome until extratropical transition begins.

[MAF]

this made me laugh an extract from the latest NOAA/NHC discussion

IT IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO ME AT HOW QUICKLY A HURRICANE CAN SPIN UP

AND JUST AS QUICKLY FALL APART. OMAR REACHED NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF

CATEGORY 4 EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 06Z AND NOW WE HAVE AN EXPOSED

LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOWING UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST A

FEW HOURS LATER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES WERE

SUGGESTING AROUND 90-100 KT AT 12Z. BUT GIVEN THE RAPID

DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY

IS ESTIMATED...WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 75 KT.

[Somerset Squall]

this made me laugh an extract from the latest NOAA/NHC discussion

It's funny when the professionals at the NHC get a surprise, it really shows in their forecast discussion.

Omar continues to weaken, and intensity is now down to 65kts. There is very little convection over the centre and the strongest winds and heaviest rains are located in a band removed to the southeast of the centre. Omar will continue to race northwards and is likely to lose hurricane status tomorrow.

Edited October 16, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Omar is now a 60kt tropical storm suffering some strong shear. Convection has flared and dissipated through the day and at the moment Omar is managing to keep some deep convection near the centre. Omar is racing northeastwards out in the open Atlantic towards the Azores. The NHC are forecasting Omar to become extratropical and then absorbed before he reaches those islands though.