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Tropical Depression 16


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

It was clear to see yesterday that this system was going to develop. The LLC was rapidly becoming better defined and the convection more organised. TD16 is located just north of Honduras and should remain north of the country on it's predicted westwards track. However, any jog south will bring TD16 onshore. If this occurs then little strengthening will occur. If TD16 manages to stay over water then it should have ample oppurtunity to become a strong tropical storm prior to landfall in Belize, as shear is low and waters are very warm. You can already see some good banding features associated with the depression though convection is shallow over the centre. This will need to be rectified before proper intensification can occur. This new cyclone is likely to bring heavy rains to Honduras as it remains close to the north coast.

post-1820-1224006061_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

thanks for the updates guys :0

at200816.gif

Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Depression AL16 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Honduras

probability for TS is 50% in about 21 hours

Belize

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Guatemala

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Roatan (16.3 N, 86.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

San Pedro Sula (15.5 N, 88.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

Note that

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

TD16 is still a mess. In fact, I'm having doubts whether this depression will ever reach storm status. The fact that it is hugging land really isn't helping the centre tighten up or the convection to be any better organised. As a consequence, the system isn't getting any stronger than 25kts. NHC still forecast a peak of 35kts but that is ONLY if track shifts north away from land. More than likely this depression will probably dive inland, looks to have taken a southwest dip today.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

good call SS. looks like it is decreasing speeds from the latest discussion

NOAA/NHC Latest

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL

DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE

85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LIMON

HONDURAS AND ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONKEY

RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND

A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Edited by Mick
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

TD16L is no more. The remnant circulation is well inland now so the system is not expected to redevelop, at least in the Atlantic. There is potential if it makes it into the East Pacific.

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