An Assessment Of The Predictions Of The Commercial Company Global Weather Oscillations Inc And The Onset Of Global Cooling.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It is likely in the infancy of formation now with the ONI reaching zero, it should reach +.05 during December. I just cannot pin the actual date for you Iceberg. The mature moderate phase would likely follow the .05.

So defined then El Nino formed officially by December and that this event will peak to become a modrate to strong event, yes?

BFTP

[Cycles]

So defined then El Nino formed officially by December and that this event will peak to become a modrate to strong event, yes?

BFTP

My press release in July and web site says moderate to strong El Nino forming "in December" (not by December). It also says it often reaches the Peru coast around Christmas time.

Yes you are correct to say "will form in December and then peak as a moderate to strong El Nino".

[Iceberg]

There seems to be several conflicting predictions here. I've included a press release from your website (a screen print). There you clearly add by December not in. (the red box is added by me).

Below are also a number of posts by you(gwo).

You say that it will be the strongest this century but then say it won't match 02.

You clearly say that you expect a rapid warming of SST in the ENSO region Oct to Dec.

You clearly say that if by December cooling is occuring and there is a La nina instead it would be damaging for your theory.

All El Nino events correlate with the PFM 100% correlation.

During the winter at least a moderate El Nino.

You also say that your forecast is for the begining of an event.

There is obviously a fair amount of conflicting info here I will try later to put a different or maybe more than one assessment together later.

Post 392 My model can track the El Nino events and there certainly is a cycle regarding strong events. The cycle coming up is more favorable for a stronger event than the 05 and 02 events, but I do not feel it can match the 97, 02 and 83 events. The El Nino after this one will bear watching though...but we do not need to worry about it for several years.

post 395 I agree with you that if a La Nina occured instead, it would be damaging. But I certainly would not have put out a press release unless my data showed an El Nino...extremely high probability for one.

Post 401 Expect a fairly brief El Nino, probably getting toward a La Nina next winter. But this winter the timing is difficult but expect real rapid warming of SSTs October to December. Probably seeing signs weather wise in January, late December possible.

Post 407 Actually the 2006-07 warming was just a warming with some slight atmospheric effects. Some have called it an El Nino but this is stretching things a bit. It came at there very tail end of the overall 2 year warming and lasted only briefly.

Otherwise El Nino events since 1914 have been pretty regular. Information is rather limited during the WWII era (about 1938 to 1949 no Nino 3 and 4 temperatures, but others available).

I Have recreated on my graphs all El Nino events and SSts back to 1910 and correlated with the PFM, and with the PFM back to 1914.

During the 95 year period El Nino events were quite regular, strengths were not though. All 24 events corresponded with the 24 PFM cycles.

I have also determined shifts in the PFM and El Nino events and have found cycles describing what has happened, thus these shifts can be taken into account when forecasting future events.

Post 358 That is what I expect, rapid rise in Tropical Central South Pacific Sea Surface temperatures during November and December... El Nino setting in around late December, full effects during the northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer. At the least, a moderate El Nino.

Post 355 I understand the "definition" of an El Nino is for a five consecutive three month mean over 0.5"...for the event to be announced.

However, an El Nino can be underway before the 5 month mean is achieved. Often an El Nino event is announced well after the event is underway. My forecast is for the beginning of the event...not for after it is already ocurring or has been occuring for a couple months.

Caution requires heeding for ENSO forecasters. Temperatures are rising in the tropical South Pacific central and eastern areas, and this is during their winter....lets see what happens as summer approaches in this area.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes you are correct to say "will form in December and then peak as a moderate to strong El Nino".

Thank you David

That is clarity of this question.

BFTP

[Cycles]

There seems to be several conflicting predictions here. I've included a press release from your website (a screen print). There you clearly add by December not in. (the red box is added by me).

Below are also a number of posts by you(gwo).

You say that it will be the strongest this century but then say it won't match 02.

You clearly say that you expect a rapid warming of SST in the ENSO region Oct to Dec.

You clearly say that if by December cooling is occuring and there is a La nina instead it would be damaging for your theory.

All El Nino events correlate with the PFM 100% correlation.

During the winter at least a moderate El Nino.

You also say that your forecast is for the begining of an event.

There is obviously a fair amount of conflicting info here I will try later to put a different or maybe more than one assessment together later.

Post 392 My model can track the El Nino events and there certainly is a cycle regarding strong events. The cycle coming up is more favorable for a stronger event than the 05 and 02 events, but I do not feel it can match the 97, 02 and 83 events. The El Nino after this one will bear watching though...but we do not need to worry about it for several years.

post 395 I agree with you that if a La Nina occured instead, it would be damaging. But I certainly would not have put out a press release unless my data showed an El Nino...extremely high probability for one.

Post 401 Expect a fairly brief El Nino, probably getting toward a La Nina next winter. But this winter the timing is difficult but expect real rapid warming of SSTs October to December. Probably seeing signs weather wise in January, late December possible.

Post 407 Actually the 2006-07 warming was just a warming with some slight atmospheric effects. Some have called it an El Nino but this is stretching things a bit. It came at there very tail end of the overall 2 year warming and lasted only briefly.

Otherwise El Nino events since 1914 have been pretty regular. Information is rather limited during the WWII era (about 1938 to 1949 no Nino 3 and 4 temperatures, but others available).

I Have recreated on my graphs all El Nino events and SSts back to 1910 and correlated with the PFM, and with the PFM back to 1914.

During the 95 year period El Nino events were quite regular, strengths were not though. All 24 events corresponded with the 24 PFM cycles.

I have also determined shifts in the PFM and El Nino events and have found cycles describing what has happened, thus these shifts can be taken into account when forecasting future events.

Post 358 That is what I expect, rapid rise in Tropical Central South Pacific Sea Surface temperatures during November and December... El Nino setting in around late December, full effects during the northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer. At the least, a moderate El Nino.

Post 355 I understand the "definition" of an El Nino is for a five consecutive three month mean over 0.5"...for the event to be announced.

However, an El Nino can be underway before the 5 month mean is achieved. Often an El Nino event is announced well after the event is underway. My forecast is for the beginning of the event...not for after it is already ocurring or has been occuring for a couple months.

Caution requires heeding for ENSO forecasters. Temperatures are rising in the tropical South Pacific central and eastern areas, and this is during their winter....lets see what happens as summer approaches in this area.

With the exception of a typing error in what you call post number 392 which does not match 392, there is very little conflicting information.

I checked my press release and it said an El Nino would form "in" December and more specifically late December. And the second conflict you talk about says it will not match "97,02,83 but will be strongest in 10 years. This was an obvious typo on the web post (in decending order 97,02,83 should of been 97,92,83, a typo error of 02 versus 92).

My comment about SSts being correlated with the PFM cycles and that SSTs were somewhat limited during WWII era means.....the Nino 3.4 SSTs are only available from 1950 to present, I used other available SSTs prior to 1950 and thus extended the period of my research with SSTs back to 1920 and correlations to the PFM back to the 1910-1914 period.

My comment in post 401 which talked about a brief El Nino and probably getting back toward a La Nina next winter ..... by next winter it means 2009-10 winter.

[Iceberg]

GWO what about the screen print from your site that I posted up ?.

I am not trying to stitch you up here, but on the web your sited using the press release I included in my picture as saying it will be BY christmas.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=821338

http://searchanythingqatar.com/article.cfm/id/344666

Aslo from the above by your good self

"But this winter the timing is difficult but expect real rapid warming of SSTs October to December".

There are clearly two predictions

1. A prediction of a moderate to strong El Nino by Christmas which you appear to now be discounting. However much you deny it it's on your website and supported by what you've written.

2. A prediction of a 0.5 Enso by the end of Christmas. Which will grow into a moderate to strong El Nino during the first part of next year.

I can except the typo's but you have to understand why there are differing views on what your predictions are. One of the reasons why I felt the need for this thread.

I will monitor both going forward to provide clarity.

Cheers

Iceberg.

[Cycles]

Iceberg,

Yes I did say in my press release moderate to strong forming by Christmas, and I also said disrupting weather patterns during the winter (N. Hem) and summer (S.Hem) months, which indicates primarily Jan-Mar. I do expect SST's to reach temperatures associated with moderate El Nino events by late December to early January, although full impact with a mature phase may lag slightly...

I also said it normally reaches Peru around Christmas. By normally it does not mean it will definitely be there by then, this is the climatological date.

[Iceberg]

Iceberg,

Yes I did say in my press release moderate to strong forming by Christmas, and I also said disrupting weather patterns during the winter (N. Hem) and summer (S.Hem) months, which indicates primarily Jan-Mar. I do expect SST's to reach temperatures associated with moderate El Nino events by late December to early January, although full impact with a mature phase may lag slightly...

I also said it normally reaches Peru around Christmas. By normally it does not mean it will definitely be there by then, this is the climatological date.

You then went on to say.

"My press release in July and web site says moderate to strong El Nino forming "in December" (not by December). It also says it often reaches the Peru coast around Christmas time.

Yes you are correct to say "will form in December and then peak as a moderate to strong El Nino"."

So GWO.

ENSO is measured by the SST's. Are you saying that the SST's(ENSO) will be a moderate/strong El Nino by the end of december or not.? You've said both above and I am fully confused.

I am not talking anywhere about the atmospheric impacts of disrupted weather patterns but about the easily measureable SST's.

Edited October 24, 2008 by Iceberg

[Cycles]

ENSO is measured by the SST's. Are you saying that the SST's(ENSO) will be a moderate/strong El Nino by the end of december or not.? You've said both above and I am fully confused.

I am not talking anywhere about the atmospheric impacts of disrupted weather patterns but about the easily measureable SST's.

Thank you for clarifying Iceberg.

The SSt's will increase by late December.

Thank you for your patience.

David

[Iceberg]

No thankyou for your patience, I will keep the assessment as is then.

Cheers

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Good analysis I feel from this. Ta to Iceberg and GWO to thrash out detail...........going to be a good one this, looking forward to its fairness and I for one will accept the result.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

I've got some new information now ... as you may have seen, I am reporting on some El Nino research (in the research part of this forum) and I have input the same index as Iceberg was quoting in his validation statement, except from 1950 to the present. Now my report doesn't go this far yet, but I've just analyzed the lunar perigee 4.43 year cycle, and there is a definite peak that would be about 15% of the total strength of the El Nino on that time scale, so as far as part one of the validation, is there a correlation at all, this demonstrates said correlation.

As to when this peak happens, my analysis shows it a bit later than David's prediction might imply, I would say closer to the end of 2009 or into 2010. So this raises the question that David might answer, is the current prediction of the El Nino starting up around December based on some larger prediction of an El Nino cycle that peaks later, and how much later? Because if I had not heard his forecast and had just discovered this signal, I might have been expecting a start-up closer to next summer (northern hemisphere, that is) for a peak into the southern summer of 2009-10.

Perhaps David could compare his index with my graph when I post it in the next day or so, and see if there is any reason for this difference. It may be due to some difference between the index being used in this study and some other index measuring the El Nino.

The other signals that I am studying independent of the Moon, would generally point to a stronger El Nino around 2011-12 as I've been saying, so I expect a weak to moderate El Nino that could start any time soon but peak around 2009-10, then this stronger El Nino in about three years time.

As far as the validation testing the actual concept though, I thinik this analysis will demonstrate that a linkage is plausible, and if there are any lunar periods of other lengths that anyone wants investigated, just say the word, it takes about five minutes to do any given period analysis. The 18.6 year cycle is probably linked to El Nino, but with this amount of data I wouldn't trust the significance of just three full cycles and a bit left over. Looking further back in history, the stronger El Ninos usually seem to happen closer to the declination max than min. Just another variable that induces change in location of q.s. features, I suppose would be the reasoning there.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting Roger and thanks. David any views on this?

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

I've posted the analysis of the lunar perigee cycle using the same data as Iceberg is using from the NCEP site, only extending that back to 1950 as per their data base.

The results are posted over in the thread I have started on my own El Nino theory and research.

I'll reproduce the relevant graph here but I would recommend you read my analysis of the lunar perigee signal there.

In this graph you'll see the average values of this El Nino index over the 4.43 year cycle of lunar perigee that corresponds to the peaks at winter full or new moon (northern or southern max as I label these events). The graph I am displaying here shows both the long-term average and the one-half of the data within that, corresponding to the current half of the perigee cycle, winter n.h. full moon at perigee or northern max. The graph is labelled to show where the year 2009 fits into the data, or I should say, where it will fit in and of course somewhat alter the data unless it follows this progression exactly.

Clearly, the El Nino tendency shown here is robust because the northern max half of the data show almost precisely the same spike as the other half must since they form the average together. What's different in the graph is that there exists a stronger La Nina signal in the year corresponding to 2008 as compared to 4.4 years previous, etc. That's where the two signals diverge somewhat, but you can see from this graph that at least a modest El Nino is indicated for the latter stages of 2009 peaking around the n.h. winter of 2009-10.

So, as I was saying in previous posts, this tends to put a slight qualification on this whole exercise, because using this analysis, one would be predicting an El Nino to start up during 2009 and if it happens to start up in December 2008 it would appear to be a bit early. In any case it shouldn't peak for about a year once it does start. Meanwhile, I should add that my overall research into the El Nino signal indicates that this is about 15-20 per cent of the total variability, so far I am not aware of other lunar cycles I could add to the total, but I already have larger signals from non-lunar sources. So that's where this stands, a valid signal from this perspective, but possibly coming a bit later than we're inferring from this discussion. Could be that the main difference in perception is due to the terms "onset" and "peak" not referring to the same time.

EN_LP2.xls

[Iceberg]

As promised another updated the second of the monthly updates to cover October now that all of the October figures are in.

Conclusions dated 17/11/08

Test 1 Enso prediction: There current Index is 0.0 this represents no movement from the 0.0 recorded last month.. Due to this there is again no evidence of a switch to a moderate/strong ENSO Signal by the end of the year. Negative anomalies exist in all ENSO sectors.

Test 2 Phase 1 global cooling:

Latest Figures.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Avg*

HAD 0.05 0.19 0.45 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.44 0.32

GISS 0.35 0.32 0.74 0.43 0.43 0.32 0.73 0.56 0.67 0.64 0.52

MSU -0.05 0.02 0.09 0.02 -0.18 -0.11 0.05 -0.01 0.16 0.18 0.02

*The average is the running average to date from the months so far.

Previous averages to help with trend analyst:

GISS 2007 = 0.74C, 2006 = 0.65

HADCRU3 2007 = 0.40C, 2006 = 0.42C

MSU 2007 = 0.28C, 2006 = 0.25

The updated figures for October have been added and show an increase in the years warming continuing with ALL global measurements putting October as one of the top 10 October ever.

Due to this upward trend this year this is as yet no evidence of a 2008 and 2009 cooling down to levels predicted by GWO.

[johnny1972]

As promised another updated the second of the monthly updates to cover October now that all of the October figures are in.

Conclusions dated 17/11/08

Test 1 Enso prediction: There current Index is 0.0 this represents no movement from the 0.0 recorded last month.. Due to this there is again no evidence of a switch to a moderate/strong ENSO Signal by the end of the year. Negative anomalies exist in all ENSO sectors.

Test 2 Phase 1 global cooling:

Latest Figures.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Avg*

HAD 0.05 0.19 0.45 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.44 0.32

GISS 0.35 0.32 0.74 0.43 0.43 0.32 0.73 0.56 0.67 0.64 0.52

MSU -0.05 0.02 0.09 0.02 -0.18 -0.11 0.05 -0.01 0.16 0.18 0.02

*The average is the running average to date from the months so far.

Previous averages to help with trend analyst:

GISS 2007 = 0.74C, 2006 = 0.65

HADCRU3 2007 = 0.40C, 2006 = 0.42C

MSU 2007 = 0.28C, 2006 = 0.25

The updated figures for October have been added and show an increase in the years warming continuing with ALL global measurements putting October as one of the top 10 October ever.

Due to this upward trend this year this is as yet no evidence of a 2008 and 2009 cooling down to levels predicted by GWO.

Iceberg

Dont post very often but read the topics with interest. Test 1 ok fair enough there is no movement eithe way on ENSO conditions with them staying neutral. However TEST 2 i cant see were your coming from here. All averages to date are lower than those for 2006 and 2007 using as a trend. To me (maybe im wrong) this suggests this year is colder worldwide than the last 2. So this suggests a downward trend in temp albeit small. I do recall reading an article recently that the GISS figures for October were wildly inaccurate and in fact were Augusts temperatures used again.

[Iceberg]

Hi Johnny,

I am measuring whether or not 2008 and 2009 have a cooling trend ending in a return to the temperatures predicted by GWO.

So far this is not the case.

The answer as to 2008 being lower than 2007 and 2006 is a resounding yes it is, but this has nothing to do with a cooling trend (see the global cooling thread). I am trying to be very precise the trend so far in 2008 has been very much upwards. which is not what you would expect if the prediction where to be true.

GISS, there were problems in the first release of the Oct GISS data (they counted some of the Russia sites using Septembers data), however this was quickly spotted and corrected. My figure includes the correction.

Cheers

[johnny1972]

Hi Johnny,

I am measuring whether or not 2008 and 2009 have a cooling trend ending in a return to the temperatures predicted by GWO.

So far this is not the case.

The answer as to 2008 being lower than 2007 and 2006 is a resounding yes it is, but this has nothing to do with a cooling trend (see the global cooling thread). I am trying to be very precise the trend so far in 2008 has been very much upwards. which is not what you would expect if the prediction where to be true.

GISS, there were problems in the first release of the Oct GISS data (they counted some of the Russia sites using Septembers data), however this was quickly spotted and corrected. My figure includes the correction.

Cheers

Iceberg

Thanks for your response. I had a look at GWO's online bk and 2 me, although my understanding of his book would be minimal compared to others on here i certainly, from the graph point of view see were he is coming from. The temperatures worldwide i believe have been steady to downward for the last 8 - 10yrs (i may need corrected here). So in relation to a trend (not GWO's) this stops the rot warming wise. 1 month or 1 year will not decide warming / cooloing as u know. Trends however will give a clearer indication of were we're headed. GWO's work may not fall immediately into line but word temps (average) are clearly as u've said showing a decline - maybe just not as quick as Mr Dilley has forecast. I for one have never accepted the human influence on the globe warming and still don't infact i think from some recent articles ive recently read cracks are starting to appear. As ive said this complex matter will show its hand through time as to whether its natural or man made. Personally i know were i stand.

Thanks for your time.

Cheers !

[Cycles]

Hi Johnny,

I am measuring whether or not 2008 and 2009 have a cooling trend ending in a return to the temperatures predicted by GWO.

So far this is not the case.

The answer as to 2008 being lower than 2007 and 2006 is a resounding yes it is, but this has nothing to do with a cooling trend (see the global cooling thread). I am trying to be very precise the trend so far in 2008 has been very much upwards. which is not what you would expect if the prediction where to be true.

GISS, there were problems in the first release of the Oct GISS data (they counted some of the Russia sites using Septembers data), however this was quickly spotted and corrected. My figure includes the correction.

Cheers

Good report and summary Iceberg.

It is now commonly known the GISS data for October was very much in error, and this does make us wonder about data throughout the year. There has been record or near record early snowfalls in Hawaii, early low temperature readings in Alaska, Florida in the United States, and other early snow or temperature readings in other areas of the Northern Hemisphere, plus a near mean Arctic summer and record open water freeze in September and October. And, the United States has been near the long-term mean for all of 2008.

We will likely need to digest all the data once 2008 has been completed and analyzed. Looking forward to future summaries Iceberg.

Regards

David

[johnny1972]

Good report and summary Iceberg.

It is now commonly known the GISS data for October was very much in error, and this does make us wonder about data throughout the year. There has been record or near record early snowfalls in Hawaii, early low temperature readings in Alaska, Florida in the United States, and other early snow or temperature readings in other areas of the Northern Hemisphere, plus a near mean Arctic summer and record open water freeze in September and October. And, the United States has been near the long-term mean for all of 2008.

We will likely need to digest all the data once 2008 has been completed and analyzed. Looking forward to future summaries Iceberg.

Regards

David

GWO

How r u ? Im not on here to agree or disagree with anyones point of view at all as i dont have enough understanding of the subject. However i do read the threads with interest. As i said to ICEBERG the average temp worldwide is downwards in recent times. It may not be exactly what uve predicted. How do u c things panning out this winter and yrs to come for - well were i live in the UK?

Look fwd to your response

Cheers

[Thundery wintry showers]

Iceberg posted a graph of ENSO-corrected temperature values which showed that when ENSO is factored out of the equation the evidence for a stalling of the warming trend is far from convincing, I can't remember exactly where.

[Iceberg]

Sorry TWS yes they are in the research section but also in this thread here.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1365901

Also this might help Johnny.

"Global temperatures have cooled during the past 12 months. During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world's temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. By the year 2023 global climate will become similar to the colder temperatures experienced during the 1800s.".

The above is a statement by GWO, the cooling during 2007 has been acknowledged and in addition to that During 2008-2009 the first stage of Global Cooling will occur. As I've shown in the graphs 2008 has so far not seen this first stage occuring and quite the reverse is occuring with a pronounced warming trend.

[Cycles]

Sorry TWS yes they are in the research section but also in this thread here.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1365901

Also this might help Johnny.

"Global temperatures have cooled during the past 12 months. During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world's temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. By the year 2023 global climate will become similar to the colder temperatures experienced during the 1800s.".

The above is a statement by GWO, the cooling during 2007 has been acknowledged and in addition to that During 2008-2009 the first stage of Global Cooling will occur. As I've shown in the graphs 2008 has so far not seen this first stage occuring and quite the reverse is occuring with a pronounced warming trend.

Here's a plot of the Mean Jan-Oct surface temperature Anomaly.

So far it shows (bottom right panel) 2008 to be cooler than the warm years of 2005 and 2007 ... a cooling trend

[Cycles]

Here's a plot of the Mean Jan-Oct surface temperature Anomaly.

So far it shows (bottom right panel) 2008 to be cooler than the warm years of 2005 and 2007 ... a cooling trend

[Paul]

Tomorrow is going to be cooler than today, yet the week as a whole will be milder than last week, is it cooling or warming?

The point being is that to speak about trends, particularly globally, surely you need to have longer timespan, as otherwise anyone could suggest a 'trend' one way or the other at any point in time?