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An Assessment Of The Predictions Of The Commercial Company Global Weather Oscillations Inc And The Onset Of Global Cooling.


Iceberg

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
Tomorrow is going to be cooler than today, yet the week as a whole will be milder than last week, is it cooling or warming?

The point being is that to speak about trends, particularly globally, surely you need to have longer timespan, as otherwise anyone could suggest a 'trend' one way or the other at any point in time?

You are so right Paul. The figures for 2008 are not even in yet, and it does take a couple years for a true trend.

Regards

David

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA

Here is a comparison graph for global temperatures from 1979 through October 2008.

Click link (or copy and past) http://gallery.myff.org/gallery/380901/bigtemps.GIF

Shown in thin lines are the monthly averages while the thick lines represent 12 months running averages. Red and orange are based on surface meteo station data as compiled by NASA (Hansen et al) and the British Met Office (HADCRU of Jones et al). Green and blue are two different products of the same satellite data series compiled by University of Alabama (Spencer et al) and Remote Sensor Systems (RSS). See how NASA creeps up, whereas Jones et al of the UK met office holds the midgrounds between Hansen and the two satellite temperature sets. Although the latter show differences in monthly values, both have a robust fit of the 12 months running mean (bold black).

Data compiled by André andrebijkerk@yahoo.com on the Yahoo Forum Climate Sceptics] The current global temperatures sources used by http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagn...l/nh+sh/monthly

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_serie...ocean_v03_2.txt

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Gwo I've disagreed with Andre many times about almost every view he holds, particularly about polar wondering. But this off topic. I am very keen for it to stay on top.

I am assessing your statement that duing 2008-2009 the first stage of global cooling will occur and that my the end of 2009 we will be back to the average level from the 40-s thru to the 70's.

To achieve this we need a downward trend in temperatures during 2008-2009, if as we have had so far this year we have a rising temperaure trend this is obviously the wrong trend to have, that is all my summery said.

Trends in 2007, 2005 are irrelavent, your predictions covered the 2008-2009 period and that is what I am measuring.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

If you go back to post 28 in this thread, where I posted a link to South American weather maps, it's interesting to look at the four-day output at present. Looks like the subtropical high west of Chile weakens for a couple of days then returns later in the period. Also looks like a major warm spell to heat wave in Argentina well south towards Patagonia. As this is the equivalent of mid-May down there, I would have to think this is 3-6 C deg above seasonal normals for central Argentina, like a plains states heat wave in the tornado season.

Does anyone on here have any links or insight concerning what we should expect to see in detail with the Pacific subtropical high if an El Nino starts up? I have assumed that it weakens, but other possibilities would be that it shifts west or south (away from the equator), or possibly northwest. And perhaps there is some documentation on different types of El nino events, because I understand they are not all totally similar.

From what I've observed in the past, during an El Nino there is usually a persistent trough off western North America with a split flow developing, the polar jet stays well north in this trough while the subtropical jet loops around even as far south as the Baja.

Here's another link from the Australian weather service showing the entire south Pacific.

This should also update for you as we move forward into the southern summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0032

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
If you go back to post 28 in this thread, where I posted a link to South American weather maps, it's interesting to look at the four-day output at present. Looks like the subtropical high west of Chile weakens for a couple of days then returns later in the period. Also looks like a major warm spell to heat wave in Argentina well south towards Patagonia. As this is the equivalent of mid-May down there, I would have to think this is 3-6 C deg above seasonal normals for central Argentina, like a plains states heat wave in the tornado season.

Does anyone on here have any links or insight concerning what we should expect to see in detail with the Pacific subtropical high if an El Nino starts up? I have assumed that it weakens, but other possibilities would be that it shifts west or south (away from the equator), or possibly northwest. And perhaps there is some documentation on different types of El nino events, because I understand they are not all totally similar.

From what I've observed in the past, during an El Nino there is usually a persistent trough off western North America with a split flow developing, the polar jet stays well north in this trough while the subtropical jet loops around even as far south as the Baja.

Here's another link from the Australian weather service showing the entire south Pacific.

This should also update for you as we move forward into the southern summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0032

Hi Roger,

Expect you are correct concerning a heat wave in portions of South America. Appears to be a battle ground around the world, some areas receiving record cold and other's heat waves. You see this happening during the spring and fall as the 2 seasons are in transition. Here in the States the east is having record cold, some areas 20 degree F below mean. For the second time in 2 weeks Florida is setting record cold.

So we often see one area balancing out the other...above mean versus below mean.

During an El Nino the jets do split with the polar jet intense and the subtropical jet pulling in moisture to the south. There are different formations in El Nino events, not all act the same. For instance...During some El Nino events northern California is very wet, but during other's they tend to have near normal (mean) precipitation. All depends on the Aleutian low and the polar jet. However, southern California is always wet during an El Nino event, this being due to the subtropical jet.

Thus northern California is determined by the PFM cycles, all depends on if it is a cyclical dry year, or cyclical wet year. A cyclical wet year provides a wet El Nino, a cyclical dry year means a near mean precipitation year.

So far NOAA and the Climate Prediciton Center shows the ONI Index to be near zero with neutral conditions. An El Nino often follows close behind 3 or 4 near zero readings (following negative La Nina ONI's). So this winter still bears watching as the PFM triggering cycles are at their optimum in November, December and January.

Regards

David

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

It is staying stinking hot in central Argentina, some readings of 41-42 C there on Thursday, and it was even 32 C on the east coast just a few miles north of the Magellan Straits. I have to wonder if this hot spell were to retrogress over the Andes if it might bring on at least a weaker El Nino set-up eventually. I still think that the actual El Nino is more likely in later 2009 than really soon, my research index method described elsewhere (research thread) shows conflicting signals but the ones supporting an El Nino peak around Dec 2009 to Jan 2010. A larger El Nino is indicated for about 2011-13.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Iceberg posted a graph of ENSO-corrected temperature values which showed that when ENSO is factored out of the equation the evidence for a stalling of the warming trend is far from convincing, I can't remember exactly where.

... and the methods for factoring out ENSO are far from convincing, either. Nor are they particularly easy to understand :lol:

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

A quick update, I am still awaiting all the information about global temperature so I'll leave that for now(MSU is out and is the 8th warmest November globally on record though).

WRT to the predicted El Nino. The update from NCEP is that cooling has occured and is now -0.1, the weekly update that came out yesterday is below but essentially says that both atmospheric and ocean conditions resemble a La Nina and have recently cooled further with no El Nino forecasted in the foreseeable future.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...s-fcsts-web.pdf

Just remind people the prediction was for the strongest El Nino for 10 years to be in place by the end of this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
A quick update, I am still awaiting all the information about global temperature so I'll leave that for now(MSU is out and is the 8th warmest November globally on record though).

WRT to the predicted El Nino. The update from NCEP is that cooling has occured and is now -0.1, the weekly update that came out yesterday is below but essentially says that both atmospheric and ocean conditions resemble a La Nina and have recently cooled further with no El Nino forecasted in the foreseeable future.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...s-fcsts-web.pdf

Just remind people the prediction was for the strongest El Nino for 10 years to be in place by the end of this month.

Thank you for keeping up with the assessement Iceberg.

Actually in post number 59 and 60 we agreed the SSTs would be increasing by late December, not that the El Nino would be in place. And keep an eye near Chile where SSTs are increasing rapidly, could be the forerunner indicating a change in winds further toward the equator later this month.

Regards

David

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

We did we agreed to keep the assessment as is in those posts, ie a moderate to strong EL Nino meaning SST's greater than +1.3 to occur by the end of December.

You might have misunderstood my post but they actually declined in November and are now negative. They have also been declining in the last few weeks according to NCEP and are negative in all zones even zone 1 and we are a million miles from an El Nino. We can't fully count the prediction a failure yet, but there is NO evidence that we are even on the verge of a warming let alone an El Nino, or even the strongest El Nino for 10 years.

I will however continue to judge upto the wire.

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
We did we agreed to keep the assessment as is in those posts, ie a moderate to strong EL Nino meaning SST's greater than +1.3 to occur by the end of December.

You might have misunderstood my post but they actually declined in November and are now negative. They have also been declining in the last few weeks according to NCEP and are negative in all zones even zone 1 and we are a million miles from an El Nino. We can't fully count the prediction a failure yet, but there is NO evidence that we are even on the verge of a warming let alone an El Nino, or even the strongest El Nino for 10 years.

I will however continue to judge upto the wire.

There is a very strong PFM occuring on the 12th of this month and during the end of the first week in January, these should be the kicker for initiating an El Nino. Things can change rapidly during that period.

Regards

David

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
There is a very strong PFM occuring on the 12th of this month and during the end of the first week in January, these should be the kicker for initiating an El Nino. Things can change rapidly during that period.

Regards

David

David

Interesting hemispheric pressure pattern thus far. Seen forecast temps for Siberia? Seen the PFJ for the UK thus far?

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
David

Interesting hemispheric pressure pattern thus far. Seen forecast temps for Siberia? Seen the PFJ for the UK thus far?

BFTP

BFTP

I have not seen the PFJ for the UK, can you post it or provide the site? Having a computer problem with my program this weeks so I have not seen the very recent temps for Siberia.

Very interesting winter so far. Here in Florida USA where I am we just had one of the coldest November's on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

The polar front jet is where at the moment ?- all over the place, by the look of it:

post-7302-1229047833_thumb.png

Siberia is quite cold this morning -30 to -40 deg C.

Edited by Chris Knight
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
The polar front jet is where at the moment ?- all over the place, by the look of it:

post-7302-1229047833_thumb.png

Siberia is quite cold this morning -30 to -40 deg C.

Thanks for that Chris

Its further south generally than it has been over recent years and seems to maintain that theme. It normally goes to our north but most energy has remained at us or to our south.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
Thanks for that Chris

Its further south generally than it has been over recent years and seems to maintain that theme. It normally goes to our north but most energy has remained at us or to our south.

BFTP

BFTP

Yes the Polar jet has been somewhat all over the place during the fall and so far in December, but overall it is further south last year and even more so this year.

Big full moon yesterday, closest approach since 1993 and with a high declination.

David

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA

ew081212a.jpgInitial estimates of the 2008 average global temperature point to the year being the coolest in a decade that has produced most of the warmest weather on record. Based on observations through early December, the average global temperature should be close to 57.74 degrees Fahrenheit.

That would make 2008 the coolest year since 1994, but a far warmer year than those prior to the industrial revolution.

The hottest year on record was 1998, which included a very strong El Niño ocean warming in the Pacific, followed by 2005, 2003 and 2002.

Britain’s Met Office predicted at the beginning of the year that 2008 would be cooler than recent years due to the La Niña ocean cooling that prevailed as the year began.

But Peter Stott of the agency’s Hadley Center cautioned that a cooler year in no way means that global warming is slowing.

“If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends,” Stott said.

In March, climatologists from Germany’s University of Kiel predicted that a natural variation will offset the 0.55 degrees Fahrenheit (0.32 degrees Celsius) of warming predicted for the next decade by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The team projected that global temperatures will remain virtually constant until 2015, then begin to climb at an increasing rate.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

All figures now updated.

HAD for Nov is 0.39 taking the 11 month average to 0.32

GISS 0.58 taking the 11 month to 0.52

MSU is 0.22 taking the average to 0.04

All the above are anomalies in C

Taking November as a whole all measurements from all indices are in the top 10 for the month ranging from a rank of 4 to 8.

The MSU was the warmest month this year.

So to judge ."During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world's temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. I am not forecasting for one specific location. My forecast for global cooling is for the whole world...the mean temperature everywhere. So this does mean some areas will be above normal and some below the mean, but averaging all values will show a cooling trend".

So far in 2008 we have not seen a cooling trend but a warming trend.

The WMO has said that despite a being a negative ENSO(La Nina year) 2008 still ranks among the 10 top warmest years.

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
All figures now updated.

HAD for Nov is 0.39 taking the 11 month average to 0.32

GISS 0.58 taking the 11 month to 0.52

MSU is 0.22 taking the average to 0.04

All the above are anomalies in C

Taking November as a whole all measurements from all indices are in the top 10 for the month ranging from a rank of 4 to 8.

The MSU was the warmest month this year.

So to judge ."During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world's temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. I am not forecasting for one specific location. My forecast for global cooling is for the whole world...the mean temperature everywhere. So this does mean some areas will be above normal and some below the mean, but averaging all values will show a cooling trend".

So far in 2008 we have not seen a cooling trend but a warming trend.

The WMO has said that despite a being a negative ENSO(La Nina year) 2008 still ranks among the 10 top warmest years.

The GISS report can be found at the web site http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/

Apparently 2008 is so far (still need to figure in a relatively cool December) among the 10 warmest years ....but it is very interesting to note that 2008 (so far) is actually the coolest year in 9 years dating back to the year 2000, and the coolest since 1994 in the United States.

Coolest world wide temperatures since 2000, does this mean temperatures are coming off the second 8-9 year twin warm peak experienced during all global warming episodes? The first one during this global warming eipisode was from about 1930 to 1930, second from about 1999 to 2007. Figures so far in 2008 do not indicate an increase in warming, but instead the beginning of a cooling trend.

My forecast (book and news release) indicated temperatures during 2008-09 returning to those experienced in the 1940s to 1970s. Which means we are in a cooling transition during the 2008-09 years, and that is exactly what is happening according to the data as temperatures are now the coolest since 2000 and in some cases 1994. Many record temperatures and early snowfalls recorded across the northern hemisphere this fall...and winter has not even begun.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This is going to sound like cherry picking, I suppose, but we are having by far the coldest start to winter in 40 years here in western Canada, and if this keeps up much longer this Dec-Jan period could rival the all-time lowest temperature regime of modern times in 1949-50. This is as big a deal here as 1947 or 1963 were in the UK.

I'm not just talking about garden variety cold where some recent weather station goes one degree below its 1997 record or some such thing. I'm talking serious cold, it was -12 C here last night, one of the coldest readings we have ever seen on the coast, and -30 C in the Okanagan valley. Rich in Canmore AB (C-coops) had -42 C a week ago and I'm seeing some similar overnight lows in the region in the past two days.

If this year comes in "above normal" for the hemisphere or globe, so be it, but it is indisputable in North America at least that some serious cold is very, very possible in this supposedly altered climate, and even in the east where it has been more variable, it seems like a rather cold start to winter. From about Toronto to Cleveland to Nashville west, it has been exceptionally cold, and has been pretty much that way since mid-November. Eastern Siberia has also seen some exceptionally cold temperatures, it was -59 C at Oimyakon earlier today, a reading often seen only once or twice a winter there and usually closer to the cold pole of late January.

It has been so cold in North America recently that the general public are starting to make considerable grumbling noises about the global warming concept, along the lines of "could use some," "where is ours," etc. I am not taking isolated instances here, the discontent with the "already proven" nature of this theory is growing and just at the wrong time for the new president who bought into it big-time.

As to the recent lunar perigee at full moon (and northern max) we had four significant storms around the northern hemisphere, including two in North America. There was a record heat wave in central Argentina, which is something I would expect from my research. As to the cooling effects as postulated by David, my own research on UK and Toronto temperature series would indicate a 0.5 to 1.0 year lag time so there's one thing we might need to discuss and thrash out in more detail. The cooling mechanism may be more of an off-set where the perigee begins to move later than the winter full moons, causing the following cold advection to strengthen at that time.

I think if David and I have a year or two to correspond and compare notes, we are going to be able to make a lot of progress. With Fred involved too, and Nigel (stormchaser 1) we have a pretty good base from which to construct a competitive long-range model, and I just want to repeat my earlier statements that I believe David has some very useful and potentially ground-breaking research in his e-book, there are details I would like to discuss with him because I feel that from these trial forecasts there is quite possibly a lag effect that has not been recognized -- the effects that David was predicting seem more plausible to me for 2009, especially the El Nino, but the predicted cold trend has evidently begun this month. I would be very surprised if this month came in above any long-term average but if it does, we need to consider how much of this is entirely over the warmed-up oceans and not the inhabited land surfaces.

Not meaning to nitpick here, because I think this is a good learning experience for all concerned, but there would be no way that I would discount the research based on any negative results here.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This chart will give UK readers a good overview of how cold the "December full moon at perigee" or as I call it, northern max at perigee, becomes especially shortly after the current signal. Every nine years, the lunar perigee occurs a few hours later relative to full moon (assuming all are at 15 Dec, the actual date makes a slight difference). Now just look at the way this breaks down ... David maybe won't recognize the cold winters so I put them in bold type. All cases below refer to the January of the winter although we are talking about the December full moons ... to my mind it is the northern max rather than the full moon that actually interacts with the perigee most strongly to create this effect which is probably a swelling up of all blocking high pressure.

....Perigee before Full Moon ..........At full Moon ...........After full moon

................................................2009 ..................................

.......................................2000.....................................

.........................1991............................................1992......

................1982...............................................1983............

...........1973..................................................1974.........

....1964...............................................1965.....................

.1955..........................................1956.............................

.............................................1947.................................

........................................1938...................................

...................................1929.......................................

..............................1920...................................(cold N Am)

.....................1911.......................................................

............1902........................................1903....(rather cold)

..........1893..........................................1894.....(rather cold)

......1884...........................................1885...........(cold N Am)

..1875............................................1876...........(1875 very cold N Am)

also .............................................1814...............

....1795......................

The further back we go, the more likely it is that these really cold winters will be offset from this modern cold tendency, and I think this may relate to David's longer cycle, as well as the long-term northward drift of the jet stream. What worked for high latitude blocking in the colder climates may now be too far north (remember my semi-bust in 2006 based on not recognizing this shift?) ... so what we have is somewhat a work in progress, the lunar effect is working its way north over time and may fall at different times in a mild climate regime as opposed to a cold climate regime.

Hope this makes sense ... my brain is frozen.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
This chart will give UK readers a good overview of how cold the "December full moon at perigee" or as I call it, northern max at perigee, becomes especially shortly after the current signal. Every nine years, the lunar perigee occurs a few hours later relative to full moon (assuming all are at 15 Dec, the actual date makes a slight difference). Now just look at the way this breaks down ... David maybe won't recognize the cold winters so I put them in bold type. All cases below refer to the January of the winter although we are talking about the December full moons ... to my mind it is the northern max rather than the full moon that actually interacts with the perigee most strongly to create this effect which is probably a swelling up of all blocking high pressure.

....Perigee before Full Moon ..........At full Moon ...........After full moon

................................................2009 ..................................

.......................................2000.....................................

.........................1991............................................1992......

................1982...............................................1983............

...........1973..................................................1974.........

....1964...............................................1965.....................

.1955..........................................1956.............................

.............................................1947.................................

........................................1938...................................

...................................1929.......................................

..............................1920...................................(cold N Am)

.....................1911.......................................................

............1902........................................1903....(rather cold)

..........1893..........................................1894.....(rather cold)

......1884...........................................1885...........(cold N Am)

..1875............................................1876...........(1875 very cold N Am)

also .............................................1814...............

....1795......................

The further back we go, the more likely it is that these really cold winters will be offset from this modern cold tendency, and I think this may relate to David's longer cycle, as well as the long-term northward drift of the jet stream. What worked for high latitude blocking in the colder climates may now be too far north (remember my semi-bust in 2006 based on not recognizing this shift?) ... so what we have is somewhat a work in progress, the lunar effect is working its way north over time and may fall at different times in a mild climate regime as opposed to a cold climate regime.

Hope this makes sense ... my brain is frozen.

Makes perfect sense Roger. There is a lag in cooling down, just as there is warming up. Global warming took many years to peak, and due to the warmer oceans a lag of a year of 2 will likely be seen for cool down. This is likely why some areas of the northern and/or southern hemisphere are warm now, and some are cool. And the jet is sliding more south in some areas and taking a little longer in other areas.

All in all we have not seen cold weather like this years since the 1990s, and some areas are looking like the 1970s. And yes, some areas are not cooling yet, but will as the winter progresses. The NOAA 3 month forecast (DEC-FEb) was calling for much above mean temperatures in the middle and southwest U.S., but so far it has been a very cold DEC in the mid portion of the U.S.

Like you Roger, I feet there will be some lowered values in the GISS etc. once the December temps are averaged in.

Regards

David

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
...I feet there will be some lowered values in the GISS etc. once the December temps are averaged in...

... or else the credibility of the recent temperature record will be cast into even deeper depths :D .

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Posted
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
  • Location: Ocala,Florida USA
... or else the credibility of the recent temperature record will be cast into even deeper depths :D .

Good point Chris.

Yes it has been cool over North America including the Arctic, however it has been warm in other parts of the world...but we are not hearing that much news about drastic heat, seems to have died down.

Believe everyone will agree the polar jet stream has migrated southward during the past year or so, although with fluctuations causing cool weather in some locations and warm or intermittent warmth in others. But all in all the jet has migrated southward, and this does make one wonder about the temperature reporting system, such as what happened with the Russian October data? The Antarctic gained in ice coverage and depth during their last winter and the Arctic was cool this past summer and very cold this winter. The only melting appears to be caused from the lag in the ocean currents cooling.

Regards

David

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Good point Chris.

Believe everyone will agree the polar jet stream has migrated southward during the past year or so,

David

Have to agree with that fully. My imput with Roger on the UK winter LRF was partially based on the solar cycle current minima going from odd to even and the polar reversal of the sun now in sink with earth. This too 'coincides' very well with the sinking of the jetstream and I also used the lunar cycles. What I see from yourself/Roger et al is that there does appear to be a direct correlation with planetary magnetic fields and lunar/solar cycles. They seem to interract in sync. Bearing in mind the warming we have seen the HALE cycle and sinking of the jet wouldn't alone have brought the depth of cold currently being experienced and so the likelihood of bigger cycle being involved seems very plausible.

BFTP

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