An Assessment Of The Predictions Of The Commercial Company Global Weather Oscillations Inc And The Onset Of Global Cooling.

[johnholmes]

But all in all the jet has migrated southward, and this does make one wonder about the temperature reporting system, such as what happened with the Russian October data? Regards

David

come on GWO, there is no conspiracy, it was a genuine mistake, openly admitted and explained as soon as the routine checks were carried out.

You do yourself a dis service by suggesting otherwise.

[Cycles]

come on GWO, there is no conspiracy, it was a genuine mistake, openly admitted and explained as soon as the routine checks were carried out.

You do yourself a dis service by suggesting otherwise.

John

You are correct John, they did openly admit and carried out the corrections. All researchers are continuing to provide very good research around the world, I applaud all, it is remarkable and very complex procedure to collect all the data around the world, some areas do not have good reporting systems.

And I agree with the temperatures reported for the 2008 Meteorological Year. Some areas such as "North America" was considerably cooler (coolest year in about 14 years), while other areas remained well above the long-term mean. This is what happens with the weather, not all areas can be cool or warm at the same time, and this is why we use a mean.

Every piece of information is a piece to the big puzzle, once it is all put together we will understand a lot more about the way natural cycles work.

The temperatures in western Canada and Alaska are now the coldest I have seen in over 10 years. Fairbanks Alaska is running consistently in the -30 to -45F range (-29C to -43C).

Long range progs are indicating this cold are will drop south with a possible hard freeze in Florida in about 2 weeks...possibly hardest freeze in 15 years or more.

David

[Iceberg]

GWO, can we stop cherry picking temperatures please, fairbanks is currently running above it's mean for the last 30 days, and has only had a cold spell for the last week....

This thread is not to post up small regional variations but to assess your predictions of Global Cooling.

Thanks

[Cycles]

Have to agree with that fully. My imput with Roger on the UK winter LRF was partially based on the solar cycle current minima going from odd to even and the polar reversal of the sun now in sink with earth. This too 'coincides' very well with the sinking of the jetstream and I also used the lunar cycles. What I see from yourself/Roger et al is that there does appear to be a direct correlation with planetary magnetic fields and lunar/solar cycles. They seem to interract in sync. Bearing in mind the warming we have seen the HALE cycle and sinking of the jet wouldn't alone have brought the depth of cold currently being experienced and so the likelihood of bigger cycle being involved seems very plausible.

BFTP

I agree with you BFTP, the lunar cycles appear to be in sync with the solar cycles but not necessarily the sunspot solar cycles. There has been a lot of talk about the Maunder miminum being in sync, but from what I have seen it is not with the period in the 1800s.

But overall I agree with you that my data is likely in sync to a very large degree with Roger's.

On a side note...I am investigating the possibility of having my work published in an online electronic journal which is focused toward operational meteorogists. If done it would likely be a 2 part series.

Roger...maybe you could have some input. Also looking for a possible co-author. The editor of the Digest has already informed me that he would like it printed in the Journal (but would take a year), so am investigating their electronic journal (take maybe 6 months).

Regards

David

[Paul]

Any sign of El Nino yet?

[Iceberg]

Any sign of El Nino yet?

Thanks for reminding me Paul, i was going to post up the latest possible December thoughts.

The answer is a very firm No.

Everything is still negative, atmospheric conditions still resemble a La Nina in places and the forecast has changed from staying neutral in Spring to being equally Neutral or a La Nina as continued cooling is expected.

Below is the latest assessment, I won't call the forecast as wrong yet as i would like to wait for the official figures to come in.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely through early 2009.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during November 2008, although equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained below-average across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest weekly SST index values were -0.9°C in Niño-1+2, -0.3°C in Niño 3, -0.5°C in Niño 3.4, and -0.4°C in Niño 4 (Fig. 2). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) became increasingly negative as below-average temperatures at thermocline depth expanded throughout the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).

Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds expanded and strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the month. Also, convection remained enhanced near Indonesia and suppressed near the International Date Line. However, in recent months intraseasonal variability has contributed to episodic strengthening and weakening of convection over Indonesia. Overall, the ocean-atmosphere system during November remained consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but exhibited several atmospheric characteristics typical of weak La Niña conditions.

A majority of the SST forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 index of -0.5°C to 0.5°C) will continue into the first half of 2009. Several models, including the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest the development of La Niña during December 2008- March 2009 (Fig. 5). The recent strengthening of the low-level easterlies over the equatorial Pacific suggests the possibility of additional anomalous cooling of the SSTs. However, the magnitude of cooling remains uncertain and it is possible the La Niña threshold will not be met (3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to

-0.5°C). Therefore, based on current observations and recent trends, ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely through early 2009.

[Cycles]

Thanks for reminding me Paul, i was going to post up the latest possible December thoughts.

The answer is a very firm No.

Everything is still negative, atmospheric conditions still resemble a La Nina in places and the forecast has changed from staying neutral in Spring to being equally Neutral or a La Nina as continued cooling is expected.

Below is the latest assessment, I won't call the forecast as wrong yet as i would like to wait for the official figures to come in.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely through early 2009.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during November 2008, although equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remained below-average across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Correspondingly, the latest weekly SST index values were -0.9°C in Niño-1+2, -0.3°C in Niño 3, -0.5°C in Niño 3.4, and -0.4°C in Niño 4 (Fig. 2). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) became increasingly negative as below-average temperatures at thermocline depth expanded throughout the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4).

Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds expanded and strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the month. Also, convection remained enhanced near Indonesia and suppressed near the International Date Line. However, in recent months intraseasonal variability has contributed to episodic strengthening and weakening of convection over Indonesia. Overall, the ocean-atmosphere system during November remained consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but exhibited several atmospheric characteristics typical of weak La Niña conditions.

A majority of the SST forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 index of -0.5°C to 0.5°C) will continue into the first half of 2009. Several models, including the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest the development of La Niña during December 2008- March 2009 (Fig. 5). The recent strengthening of the low-level easterlies over the equatorial Pacific suggests the possibility of additional anomalous cooling of the SSTs. However, the magnitude of cooling remains uncertain and it is possible the La Niña threshold will not be met (3-month average of the Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to

-0.5°C). Therefore, based on current observations and recent trends, ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely through early 2009.

Iceberg

Thank you for the update. As you mention as of December 25 there is no signs of an El Nino forming.

An El Nino normally forms as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm rapidly over the central South Pacific between plus and minus 5 degrees of the equator.

Although they do not always form in the same location. There is anomalous warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) forming off the coast of Chile around 10 degrees south latitude and extending several hundred miles westward. This may be a normal pattern, but will be monitored for expansion.

The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) had its first forcing peak in December with the second major peak coming up in and around January 10th. Will closely monitor what happens during mid January into February. As Roger pointed out, there may be a lag I did not pick up in this cycle. Some ENSO cycles do lag the PFM a little and develop toward the end of the PFM cycle, most occur at the beginning to middle of the PFM cycle. The current PFM cycle began during the late summer, peaks in January and falls off in April to June.

A Very Happy New Year to All

David

[Iceberg]

David, I will mark the first prediction as a negative and continue to monitor the ENSO then for the second prediction until late spring time.

The current consensus is that there is a reasonable chance of a La Nina forming in the Spring, but these things can change. It would be very unusual for us not to have a El Nino at some point in 2009 as we rarely go this long with out one.

[Cycles]

World Climate Report, Chief Editor, Patrick Michaels, January 7, 2009http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...-to-the-future/ The data are just in from the National Climatic Data Center and they show that for the year 2008, the average temperature across the United States (lower 48 States) was 1.34ºF lower than last year, and a mere one-quarter of a degree above the long-term 1901-2000 average. The temperature in 2008 dropped back down to the range that characterized most of the 20th century.

Figure 1. U.S. average annual temperature history 1895-2008 (source: National Climatic Data Center,

http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl)

[jethro]

David, long time, no hear; I trust you are well?

If you get time, have a look at this latest, I'm sure you'll find it interesting:

http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/content/full/37/1/71

[Iceberg]

Thanks for Reminding me David, I have been a tad busy at work lately so am a little late updating.

Taken from the latest offerings by NOAA.

Atmospheric conditions reflect La Nina. Negative anomalies persists.

La Nina conditions are likely to persist through Spring.

The current measurement is -0.3C for Oct/Nov/Dec, this is expected to increase above -0.5 at the next update when there is a good chance that a La Nina will be called. (they will do this if they expect the -0.5 or lower for the next three updates).

Going from this I have to call the ENSO prediction as Negative.

WRT to the second predictions of a Cooling trend through 2008/2009 to a Pre 1980's level of global temperature.

The NCDC anomaly as mentioned brings Dec as a Top 10 month again as does MSU and GISS(NASA), Hadley makes it the 13 warmest out of 159 measurements.

NCDC has the year as a whole as 0.49C above average globally making it a top 10 year quite easily.

Hadley and GISS also make 2008 a top 10 year. MSU makes this year as a whole quite cool, but still above average Ranking the year as a whole as around the middle of it's 30 year ranking.

All Temperature trends have showed a pronounced warming from the start of 2008 to the end of 2008.

This prediction is still ongoing in it's assessment, if ther warming trend from the start of 2008 to the end of 2008 is repeated and 2009 is warming this would lead to a negative prediction.

[Gray-Wolf]

With GISS still holding out for an El-Nino to set in by late 09 /early 10' it will be an interesting year to watch. GISS seem to think the conditions already exist (at depth) to support a rapid formation of El-Nino but if we remain PDO negative it may well have limited impacts. If ,however ,this PDO negative is as fleeting as the last two failed starts (both of 4 year duration) then we may be seeing to first stages of a pattern usurp at the hands of the current global warming. Change the PDO 'patterns' by negating the negative phase (due to warming oceans) and you change Nino ( it becomes stronger as in positive PDO phases) and abolish Nina's (again ,as happens with a positive PDO). Of course this would also mean that the potential for strongly positive PDO's and the formation of 'super El-Nino's' (as is predicted in many AGW forecasts).

If we are to have a 'step change' in warming by 2015 then this scenario would provide the impetus.

Edited January 26, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Cycles]

Thanks for Reminding me David, I have been a tad busy at work lately so am a little late updating.

Taken from the latest offerings by NOAA.

Atmospheric conditions reflect La Nina. Negative anomalies persists.

La Nina conditions are likely to persist through Spring.

The current measurement is -0.3C for Oct/Nov/Dec, this is expected to increase above -0.5 at the next update when there is a good chance that a La Nina will be called. (they will do this if they expect the -0.5 or lower for the next three updates).

Going from this I have to call the ENSO prediction as Negative.

WRT to the second predictions of a Cooling trend through 2008/2009 to a Pre 1980's level of global temperature.

The NCDC anomaly as mentioned brings Dec as a Top 10 month again as does MSU and GISS(NASA), Hadley makes it the 13 warmest out of 159 measurements.

NCDC has the year as a whole as 0.49C above average globally making it a top 10 year quite easily.

Hadley and GISS also make 2008 a top 10 year. MSU makes this year as a whole quite cool, but still above average Ranking the year as a whole as around the middle of it's 30 year ranking.

All Temperature trends have showed a pronounced warming from the start of 2008 to the end of 2008.

This prediction is still ongoing in it's assessment, if ther warming trend from the start of 2008 to the end of 2008 is repeated and 2009 is warming this would lead to a negative prediction.

Very rapid warming off the coast of Chile, could be the beginning of an El Nino

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...e/sstanim.shtml

[Chris Knight]

Very rapid warming off the coast of Chile, could be the beginning of an El Nino

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...e/sstanim.shtml

Any comments on the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and impacts on your field of interest David?

[Cycles]

Any comments on the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and impacts on your field of interest David?

Chris

I noticed this stratospheric warming event occured following the peak of the PFM cycle in early December and early January. The prior warming also occured near the PFM peak in June. Very interesting Chris. I have not been following the stratospheric warminghs, but as I said, the coincidence is very interesting.

Regards

David

[Cycles]

David, long time, no hear; I trust you are well?

If you get time, have a look at this latest, I'm sure you'll find it interesting:

http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/content/full/37/1/71

Jethro

Interesting article you posted, it does help to back up my theory and findings concerning geomagnetic cycles as a cause for climate cycles.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm also watching the susidence of cold waters along the equator and ,if GISS are right in their belief that waters at depth are ready to being about an El-Nino, we may be watching the 'bulge' of warm massing and spilling out towards America. One to watch?

[Iceberg]

Chris

I noticed this stratospheric warming event occured following the peak of the PFM cycle in early December and early January. The prior warming also occured near the PFM peak in June. Very interesting Chris. I have not been following the stratospheric warminghs, but as I said, the coincidence is very interesting.

Regards

David

With the warmest of respect David you could probably make ice cream sales map directly with the PFM.!

There is No evidence that we will have an EL Nino this spring. I would put a very large sum of money on it.

However it's looked at, the highest probability will be for a La Nina to form.

If anything the Significant PFM events seem to be coinciding with a La Nina and not an El Nino.

[Cycles]

With the warmest of respect David you could probably make ice cream sales map directly with the PFM.!

There is No evidence that we will have an EL Nino this spring. I would put a very large sum of money on it.

However it's looked at, the highest probability will be for a La Nina to form.

If anything the Significant PFM events seem to be coinciding with a La Nina and not an El Nino.

NOAA and some other agencies may feel a La Nina is possible, but in due respect Iceberg, other science does show a good possibility of an El Nino forming this spring. If you would like a side bet, I am interested, get in touch with me.

Regards

David

[Iceberg]

We were here back in October though David, For December the ENSO figure sits at -0.3 (this is almost certainly going to decrease to -0.4 ot -0.5 in Jan as Jan was much lower than October temperature wise in the ENSO zones.)

From here to get an El Nino in Spring would require a back track to postive temps reversing all the way to 0.5 by May with the assumption that the 0.5 would be carried over the next 3 monthly updates. Jan will stay in the calculation for Feb's update, March's update and April's so a strong negative month will be with us for awhile yet. I would be interested to hear about any other organisation which thinks an El Nino is likely in the Spring.

To date I've given your prediction based on your scientific methods numerous chances to be right wrt the ENSO prediction and still we are going more and more negative.

[Cycles]

With the warmest of respect David you could probably make ice cream sales map directly with the PFM.! :lol:

All who have read my book can readily see and understand that the PFM (Primary Forcing Mechansim, specific lunar declination gravitation cycle) coincide with global warming and cooling events over the past 450 thousand years...2200 of them in all. And graphs within my ebook show these cycles coinciding with the all 5 global warming-cooling cycles during the past 1000 years. My book also shows that as temperatures and the PFM cycle rises and peaks every 116 thousand years, CO2 follows this trend (follows temperatures by 300 to 900 years) and likewise peaks. The CO2 rises during the 10 thousand years leading up to the 116 thousand year peak, with CO2 mean levels rising from 180 ppm to 300 ppm mean values, with short-term 100 year spikes likely reaching into the mid to uppe 300s. We are not at the crest of a 116 thousand year cycle with natural CO2 levels peaking very similar to the prior cycles.

The IPCC and AGW people have shown that the world's temperatures have risen since 1850, and CO2 also. This is a period of "Natural Global Warming", and thus CO2 would rise naturally anyway.

The IPCC graphs of CO2 and temperature rise shows a steady increase of CO2 during the 1900's to 2008. But it should be noted that temperatures peaked in the 1930s and 1998-2007....and between these dates were 70 years of cool/cold temperatures which do not correlate with the IPCC rises in CO2 levels.

A better correlation of CO2 rises would be a plot of the advent and cumulative numbers of radio and television sets from the 1920s to 2007.

As for the GISS, Hadley and NCDC world temperatures. Although 2008 was in the top 13 warm years, it was not mentioned that 2008 was actually the coolest global year since 2002....and the coolest North America Continent temperatures in 15 years (comparable to the 1940s to 1980 mean temperatures)... surely this may indicate a downswing in temperatues....and not an upswing warming as suggested.

And it should be noted that with 2008 being the coolest year in many years, 2009 (which began Dec 1 2008) is starting out cooler than any year during the past 10 to 15 years.

Warm Regards

David

We were here back in October though David, For December the ENSO figure sits at -0.3 (this is almost certainly going to decrease to -0.4 ot -0.5 in Jan as Jan was much lower than October temperature wise in the ENSO zones.)

From here to get an El Nino in Spring would require a back track to postive temps reversing all the way to 0.5 by May with the assumption that the 0.5 would be carried over the next 3 monthly updates. Jan will stay in the calculation for Feb's update, March's update and April's so a strong negative month will be with us for awhile yet. I would be interested to hear about any other organisation which thinks an El Nino is likely in the Spring.

To date I've given your prediction based on your scientific methods numerous chances to be right wrt the ENSO prediction and still we are going more and more negative.

Actually we are not going more and more negative. Nino 1 and 2 just had a major temperature increase with above mean anomally. This bears watching, NOAA and other organizations did not have this forecast to occur.

Regards

David

[jethro]

David, are you any closer to getting your work published in book form, rather than e-book? I don't get time to sit in front of the computer for long stretches plus, call me old fashioned, I prefer proper books.

[Cycles]

David, are you any closer to getting your work published in book form, rather than e-book? I don't get time to sit in front of the computer for long stretches plus, call me old fashioned, I prefer proper books.

I recently picked up a strong supporter at a University here in the States. We are looking at the possiblity of several meteorologists/climatologists co-authoring a book. Also looking at journal possibilities. The good news is I am now being aligned with some strong supporters...some of which were or are still IPCC people.

David

[jethro]

I recently picked up a strong supporter at a University here in the States. We are looking at the possiblity of several meteorologists/climatologists co-authoring a book. Also looking at journal possibilities. The good news is I am now being aligned with some strong supporters...some of which were or are still IPCC people.

David

Good news! Keep us posted.

[Cycles]

Good news! Keep us posted.

Jethro

Here's the latest update on happenings.

A University professor in the States has agreed to partner a hardcover book with me. We may include other co-authors as well. No time table yet, but it looks like it will happen and include input from other meteorologist/climatologists.

El Nino....Regions Nino 3 and 4 are still cool with La Nina type ocean temperatures. Rapid warming is occuring in Nino region 1 and 2 with the ONI now at +.5, bears watching to see if nino 3 region begins warming as well. An El Nino is officially called by NOAA when region wide the 3 month mean of the ONI becomes plus .5 or greater for 3 months.